StudHi Great 4th street...now what??

[Poker CPA]

What do you put seats 2 and 8 on, in order to determine if 7th is a value bet?

I think seat 2 is looking for a heart based on 4th street play, and will fold Qs, specially if seat 8 calls. Seat 8 has a low st8 draw, (2s, 3s and 7s are all live). If he has a big pair wired and doesn't improved on 7th, he's folding to the Qs and the agressive nature of Hero. My headreading puts both these guys on draws, and to bet into them is not a value play. Yeah you could have the best hand here, no debate there. Its whether they will be calling on busted draws. Again check is fine because the bet has no positive expectation, both will fold if they don't make their draws, and if they do, they're raising. A value bet should be based on, not on having the best hand, but on your chances of winning the last bet when you are called (or rasied). A value bet HU, you need to be at least a 60% favorite, to compensate for the potential raise back. 3 way action, when both appear to be on draws, you need to be at least 80%.

This is not a huge mistake, given the action and the exposed cards (and yes I know about the hearts).

SLM are you impling Bear is a poor player because he made 1 check during this hand? The thinking of "marginal hand" on third is much worse, considering the exposed cards.

[JerBear77]

I really don't understand the debate on 3rd of why it is getting as deep as everyone says it is. If all the OC were "live" this is an easy fold here.

Because Im against one live OC and two "dead" ones, why on earth would we fold here when we know the possibilities of hitting a perfect 4th street?!?!?!

Yes I agree that this was FPS when i hit my set, but I was trying to figure a way to get the most in the middle w/o losing anyone. OTOH, I guess loosing one of my villians in this spot wouldn't be a terrible thing if i was against FDs and ST8 draws....

Part of my learning curve. I am new to this game but NOT new to poker.

[Micturition Man]

Try doing a little math or playing around in twodimes and you'll see why it's so marginal.

In the actual hand you caught trips on 4th and got about as much action as you could possibly hope for.

Assuming you won the pot you got 25.6:1 for your 4th street investment. However you were about 20:1 to hit, and you easily could have lost to a flush (well not so much in this case), straight, higher trips, or boat.

The times you lose on the river in this hand it costs you about 6.5 big bets.

Truly, it's a marginal call. Especially when you consider that you could easily have been raised from behind by split aces and wound up investing 2 or more bets on 3rd, which makes it almost impossible for the initial call to be +EV.

[SuperUberBob]

I think it's played perfectly fine.

The 3rd street call is marginal, especially with the overs behind you that could re-raise. But otherwise, it's fine.

After fourth street, it's gravy.

[cgrohman]

Bet the river.