Everyone's Going Broke in 2007

[pineapple888]

Well, yeah, this is true.

I mean, if by "everyone" you mean "a small number of compulsive ballas who live beyond their means, and play stakes that are beyond both their bankrolls and their abilities".

Of course, that group is "everyone" to anyone who's in it.

But, the factors you mention above are mostly irrelevant to the vast majority of the "little people" around here.

There will always be donks. Either those donks can pay my bills, or not. If not, I'll find something else to do.

I am really looking forward to the Not Busto! threads 2007.

"...... NOT Busto? Was seen playing 4+ tables of 5/10NL with short to average stacks!"

[LearnedfromTV]

I wanted to argue against the OP, but I realized that several of the main points against it involved people being rational about things like bankroll management and game selection. And a lot of people aren't, including a lot of people who rely on poker for income.

So globally, you're probably right, the poker economy will shrink some and the most financially irresponsible pros will go broke faster (or more often) than they would have otherwise.

But the world is full of bad poker players with money, and although the worst case scenario for online poker is a possibility, it isn't a guarantee either.

The main key is popularity and accessibility for two classes of people:

- 18-24 year olds who have never played or haven't played much

- adults with significant disposable income

The tournament prize pools point is a legitimate one, but I think it is offset by the fact that a lot of poker enthusiasts who work real jobs and play very badly use big tournaments as a poker vacation. As i understand it, these fish feeding tournament pros and both feeding cash games is a phenomenon that goes back to well before the poker boom. Point being, for every major tournament that sucks a couple million out of the economy, a lot of money is brought to cash tables that would never have been in play otherwise.

Also, I can't speak to the quality of $10k events and big cash games, but I can say that every time i play live I meet a whole class of very very bad poker players who have never played online (or gone broke very fast there with small sums), many of whom would never consider playing online. These people have day jobs and a hobby, and that hobby is a habit; they go to Tunica every January, or Vegas three times a year, or Commerce on weekends. And they know they'll lose and play anyway, or think they should win but get terribly unlucky, and they've been doing it for years.

Also, if online poker does die a slow or moderate death (as opposed to the very unlikely instant death that would come with complete success cutting off funding or isp blocks or something), I'm willing to bet the very last people to get the memo will be new tech-savvy college fish surrounded by friends who play and the get-rich-quick stories I imagine circulate through campuses. And as someone pointed out, there's a new group of 18 year olds every year (or 21, if you prefer).

[Eaglesfan1]

cool, i'll finally have time to get that McDonald's job i've been wanting for the past 3 years.

[wins_pot]

-the growth of international markets is definitely a wild card. it would be great if london became a poker capital again (new poker rooms are scheduled to open there in 07).
-game on if int poker becomes legal. online poker+casino credit=entirely new world.
-young kids usually don't have money unless they luck into it.
-LA. you can expect the pro/fish ratio to go up. in two years, there will be some guy you'll have to tip five hundo to get in a really good game.

brandon

[LearnedfromTV]

Additional thoughts:

Some degree of adjustment is certain to happen. While there will certainly be many pros without the ability or desire to do something else who will have to deal with an income and lifestyle change, and some others who go broke, there will also be quite a few who move on voluntarily, and this will dampen the effects some for those who stay.

Also, I wonder sometimes if the absolute number of internet pros is overestimated relative both to the number of people who play live and to the absolute number of online fish, mainly as a function of multitabling. Take twenty tough online sixmax tables, with 12 tough 8 tablers and 20 fish and put them in a casino and you have five great full ring games. Obviously, hourly rates are lower and a fish playing 1/2 online is probably playing the smallest game in a casino, but the concept is still meaningful.

Regulated internet poker in the U.S. (Harrahs.com, etc.) is obviously the dream scenario.

Frankly, no matter what the state of the games, I'll continue to play poker seriously. Full-time and part-time will kind of blend for me, because poker is one of a few things I plan to do over the next several years; I'll play for profit in whatever games I can beat, and if poker isn't profitable enough I'll play a little less poker and spend more of the rest of my time making money and less doing other things.

[MicroBob]

If everyone else goes broke that means I will have ALL the monies.

Go me!!!

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
If everyone else goes broke that means I will have ALL the monies.

Go me!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

You are part of everyone.

[GiantWalleye]

[ QUOTE ]
7.Expenses. Most poker players spend a huge amount of money.


[/ QUOTE ]

[censored], I used a good tourney win to pay my mortgage for a year and pay off my car a couple months ago. Total payment was 82% of my bankroll. Total monthly payments now $0. When the 5 million people that play poker quit, I am going to be busto in a month, [censored]. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[dozer]

With the online game drying up in the U.S., it's going to be tougher to get new money on the Internet. But that doesn't mean that the live games will suffer. Poker is still relatively big despite the overkill of coverage on TV and on the Internet. People who visit Vegas, AC, LA, etc. will still be interested in trying their hand at poker. There will still be money to funnel up in the B&Ms.

Of course, you can't multitable at the B&Ms, making it harder to grind out lots of cash.

If/when online poker becomes a re-reality in the United States, it will boost the poker world to huge heights. If/when.