The Well: Performify

[Performify]

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monica, phoebe, or rachel?

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Monica and its not even close for me.

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how many 5-year olds?

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For those who missed this 2+2 classic: How Many?

If my primary motiviation was how many i could possibly take down, where they are constantly being replenished, I think i could easily drop a hundred-some five year olds in the format of the challenge. Somewhere around a hundred, I think I would gas and would be able to be taken down by just a handful of them. My strategy here would be keeping mobile, sticking and moving with just jabs and elbows while moving as fast as I could around the court. Five year olds aren't that fast, and I think i could carve my way through a mass of them, Sean of the Dead style. A basketball court isn't that big though, so I think much over a hundred some kids and movement becomes enough of an issue that its dangerous - you might be able to trip once or twice but if the kids are bloodthirsty and working togther, five or six of them are going to be able to pile on you enough to slow you down so that another group can jump on you and finish you off.

I do cardio four days a week, but its just not enough to keep KO'ing five year olds for more than about half an hour I think. Maybe an hour, tops.

If my primary motivation was survival, i.e. I can't take this scenario where I gas and lose at the end, I'd say fifty. I'm 90% confident you could put fifty of the five year olds on the court and I could defeat them all easily, as that's few enough that i could use my same plan as above but have plenty of breathing room as to not gas before defeating them.

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live man or dead woman?

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Tough one. I think I'd rather go gay than necro. Unless it was Monica...

[trixtrix]

agreed, that or turn "virtually" canadian

it's very ironic give that the mma betting market currently is BOOMING

[Performify]

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agreed, that or turn "virtually" canadian

it's very ironic give that the mma betting market currently is BOOMING

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True. I'd left out the option of moving to Canada or etc to regain access to Pinnacle.

[cboevey]

1 Favourite:

a) drink
b) book
c) movie

2 Do you believe that (any) sports can be handicapped by:

a) Purely mathematical algorithm/system without any ad hoc adjustment.

b) Assuming (a) with the system developer not even knowing the basics of the sport i.e. having access to historical data but never played/watched a game.

3 If you pay to watch an event you have bet on, do you consider this cost in the I for your ROI?

4 Assuming you had to start again with a bankroll of $2k and were not American, would you consider the reduced juice at Pinny worth more than the potential of waiting to max the bonus?

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
1 Favourite:

a) drink
b) book
c) movie


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1a) Jones Cream Soda for non-alcoholic or Diet Dr. Pepper.
Scotch (Macallan 12yr usually), Irish Whiskey (Tullamore Dew) or Vodka (K1, Chopin, Cîroc).
90% of the time in a club I'm ordering K1 or Goose, rocks, twist.

1b) Cryptonomicon, Neal Stephenson

1c) I'm a movie (and music) fanatic, hundreds and hundreds of movies in my collection. hard for me to pick just one. A short list of some of my top must-have movies: Audition (Miike), O Brother, Where Art Thou?, The Usual Suspects, Moulin Rouge, Memento, and Fight Club. And i hate writing that down, because I'm leaving off like 15 other favorites.

Its easier for me to throw out a list of my favorite directors: the Coen Brothers, Takashi Miike, Christopher Nolan, David Fincher, David Lynch, Baz Luhrmann, Robert Rodriguez, Quentin Tarantino and Martin Scorsese. when I find a director I really like, i tend to celebrate their entire collection.

[ QUOTE ]
2 Do you believe that (any) sports can be handicapped by:

a) Purely mathematical algorithm/system without any ad hoc adjustment.

b) Assuming (a) with the system developer not even knowing the basics of the sport i.e. having access to historical data but never played/watched a game.


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2a) I do. However, I think applying knowledge and analysis is necessary / desired to maximize one's edge.

2b) I think deep enough mathematical analysis can find winning subsets in almost any data source.

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3 If you pay to watch an event you have bet on, do you consider this cost in the I for your ROI?


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3) No. I've never paid to watch an event only because i've bet on it. However, I have numerous times bet on an event only because I'm going to be there / going to be watching it.

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4 Assuming you had to start again with a bankroll of $2k and were not American, would you consider the reduced juice at Pinny worth more than the potential of waiting to max the bonus?

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4) Not if I were really serious about handicapping, i.e. intending to really try to do things seriously. if i were just getting started with 2k I'd probably split it between BetCRIS and one of the exchanges. The 21% bonus at CRIS for a new account is quite a bit more utility than Pinnacle's lower juice lines at a $2k roll.

I'd then try to build enough to start bonus chasing at other sites - roll through Bodog for their weak prop lines, etc. I'd probably consider depositing at Pinny once I hit $5k.

However, if I was just a casual bettor looking for just one site, then yeah I'm going to Pinnacle regardless.

[LotsOfOuts69]

sorry for a noob post, but did you say you put down more than you entire bankroll on one bet?

How was this possible for you to do? what was the structure of the bet?

[Performify]

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sorry for a noob post...

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This is The Well. You can literally shout any question down The Well, and i will answer.

If anyone has any sort of "noob" questions about sports betting or etc they've been hesitant to ask in the past because they didn't think it was worth starting a thread - this is the perfect time to do it. Or, you can always post those sort of comments in the monthly Chatter Thread as well.


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...but did you say you put down more than you entire bankroll on one bet?

How was this possible for you to do? what was the structure of the bet?

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I put every penny I could find loaded up on Tito Ortiz starting at -777 in his third fight with Ken Shamrock. I advocated on my blog and here on two plus two putting everything you had on that line. It was widely available between -777 and -850, and was one of the largest mispriced lines i've ever seen, as the true line there should have been -1900 in my honest opinion.

This was all possible due to Pinnacle's ability to bet as much as you wanted on a fight - their max opened at $2k for the fight which meant you could bet around $15k to win $2k, then they'd move the line, and then you could bet the max again. I had prepared myself and had withdrawn every penny from online site I had money at, plus put in absolutely as much as I could afford to lose on top of that. I had about 125% of my bankroll riding on it.

If you're interested, you can see the thread here:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...Number=7612156

And a follow-up:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...Number=7621692

[NhlNut]

good job P,
a couple more questions:

How do friends/family/SO feel about your sports betting? It took a long time (and several graphs) for my family to accept poker. Sports they just don't 'get'.

Can you enjoy sports while still betting on them? Can you maintain being a fan while betting for or against certain teams?

[65DropTop]

Thank you Performify for such thought-provoking posts and for being an expert who welcomes fielding noobs' questions.

I am involuntarily sidelined from work and will be for months more. Given that I have nothing but "free time," I want to occupy myself with sports book arbitrage. I am a U.S. citizen but am enjoying living in Baja California, Mexico. My girlfriend has family here. My ISP is TelNor, the Mexican telephone conglomerate. Opening a bank account here will take time, given my nationality, but I will persist.

From your posts I read that you develop some of your arb opportunities by taking an early position that you think will see subsequent line movement. Initially I do not want to work such arbs as I have no handicapping abilities. My interest is in the "pure arb" area. I read the www.ArbCentral.com site and found it helpful. Two comments there caught my attention.

First, the ArbCentral author wrote that one can scan lines live to locate opportunities. I presume this means having feed from several sports books open and doing a simple comparison. In the same context the author cautioned that some of the best arbs are open for 20-30 seconds. I believe I am well situated to search for these arbs as I will have access to Pinnacle. Any suggestions from you on this approach?

Second, the author also cautioned that betting on games in the closing minutes before starting time can be dangerous. The immediate pre-game moments apparently see significant line changes and arb opportunities result. But the author noted that this presented the distinct danger that one may not be able to enter a balancing bet as the intended sportsbook closes action just prior to a game's start (while one is still betting the first side). This, however, seems to present an opportunity. Given that the immediate pre-game minutes are "arb rich," then the dangers of sequential betting arbitrage must be solved to profit reliably. My solution is simple: my girlfriend and another computer. When such immediate pre-game arb opportunities arise, one of us readies the Pinnacle account (or that of a similar site) while the other readies that of the balancing book. We cross-confirm that the numbers remain profitable and execute the transactions simultaneously if such remains so.

I would welcome your and other posters' comments and suggestions as to these two or any other "arbitrage business plans" suitable for a noob with time and access to "Pinny."

My advance thanks to all responders and to 2+2 for maintaining this forum.

65DropTop

[Performify]

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good job P,
a couple more questions:

How do friends/family/SO feel about your sports betting? It took a long time (and several graphs) for my family to accept poker. Sports they just don't 'get'.

[/ QUOTE ]


My friends are all pretty supportive. We all play poker together, go to Vegas together, many of them are sports bettors as well (most follow my picks).

My family really doesn't care much. I wouldn't say my parents approve tremendously much, but they don't give me any real static. They've all seen that I'm successful at it. Being friends with Eric "Rizen" Lynch helped out tremendously - when my family could see what he was able to earn as a full-time poker pro, it wasn't too hard for them to understand.


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Can you enjoy sports while still betting on them? Can you maintain being a fan while betting for or against certain teams?

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I'm no longer a fan of any given team in the NFL. Sports betting has definitely been a huge part of that.

I'm still able to be a fan of specific fighters in MMA, but I constantly work to separate being a fan of a fighter with a handicapper.