Meh spot

[Josh.]

with your relatively small stack, i wonder if, even if this play wasnt +cEV, it would still be worth shoving. are you really going to find a better spot than this in the next few orbits while you still have fold equity?

[NoahSD]

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It sounds like the read makes it a fold. It's close, though. I think TT's pretty clear shove and 88 is a pretty clear fold.

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So you have AT in his range but not A9, or have 99 in his calling range, but not 77 or 88?

I think I agree with you, but would like to know why you are making a disctinction between TT and 99 here.

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I think 99/TT are around the bottom of his calling range. Also, stuff like this matters when we're talking about slim plays:

pokenum -h tc td - ac kd
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Td 963044 56.24 741201 43.29 8059 0.47 0.565
Ac Kd 741201 43.29 963044 56.24 8059 0.47 0.435

pokenum -h 9c 9d - ac kd
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9c 9d 935350 54.63 768883 44.90 8071 0.47 0.549
Ac Kd 768883 44.90 935350 54.63 8071 0.47 0.451

I'd give you equity vs. a range, but pokerstove seems to have died.

[Beachman42]

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1. Your stack size really makes this a trouble hand, because ideally you would like to call here and bet out about 2000-2400 on a flop with J high or under. But, doing so would leave you with a less than desirable chip stack, but still playable, if he comes over you on the flop.

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Bleh. If you call I think your options are check raising all in or check folding. Leading is a spew, although I'm not convinced calling PF is a spew, but it might me.

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While your stack size is a little large, calling from the BB and pushing the flop (stop n go) will work for a good portion of his range. If he's a thinking player, he might call loosely by putting you on a stop n go with a pair smaller than yours.

I'm inclined to fold this pf due to being OOP against a range I don't like, but if I play, I'm calling & pushing any non A, non K flop; checking any A, K flop and puking when he bets enough to pot commit me.

[woodguy]

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with your relatively small stack, i wonder if, even if this play wasnt +cEV, it would still be worth shoving. are you really going to find a better spot than this in the next few orbits while you still have fold equity?

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Shoving 15BB's over any LP raise in the next 4 hands is going to be very +EV too, lots of fold equity there. I am very comfortable playing smallish stacks and not being in a panic.

I really think that pushing any two over random LP raiser is a better spot than a medium pair against a UTG raise.

Regards,
Woodguy

[woodguy]

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I'm inclined to fold this pf due to being OOP against a range I don't like, but if I play, I'm calling & pushing any non A, non K flop; checking any A, K flop and puking when he bets enough to pot commit me.

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If that's your plan then c/r all in on non A/K flop is way, way better than open pushing them.

What this line boils down to is putting UTG on two big cards and not a big pair, and if that's the case then pushing PF is better, no?

Regards,
Woodguy

[Beachman42]

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I'm inclined to fold this pf due to being OOP against a range I don't like, but if I play, I'm calling & pushing any non A, non K flop; checking any A, K flop and puking when he bets enough to pot commit me.

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If that's your plan then c/r all in on non A/K flop is way, way better than open pushing them.

What this line boils down to is putting UTG on two big cards and not a big pair, and if that's the case then pushing PF is better, no?

Regards,
Woodguy

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Possibly, but any FE generated would be from AK-AJ missing the flop and correctly folding to your push. In this case (rem the stack sizes here) you are pushing, allowing him to fold, and picking up 1500 chips plus another round without having to put $ in the pot. That's not a bad outcome. I'm OK with AK/AQ folding on the flop where they wouldn't fold pf cuz there are 2 more cards coming that can crush us. Statistically we are 3:1 ahead, but its our MTT life and I'll lock in my gain and live to play another hand.

BTW, are you c/calling AI here?

[Cky3]

Fold in this spot. If UTG has been playing so well and not gotten out of line why gamble? If he's playing the right hands in the right spots then odds are you're flipping or a huge dog it would seem. I can't see anyone doing this with 88 or worse. I like the fold or play the 9's for set value since you'll likely double up off him with such a large stack. I don't like playing this pot against a good opponent. Why not wait and take advantage of a looser opponent with a better hand? It seems risking one's tourney life on 99 against a strong utg raiser could be a major error.

[woodguy]

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I'm OK with AK/AQ folding on the flop where they wouldn't fold pf cuz there are 2 more cards coming that can crush us. Statistically we are 3:1 ahead, but its our MTT life and I'll lock in my gain and live to play another hand.

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C'mon, that just gross and you know it.

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BTW, are you c/calling AI here?

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If i called and he jammed most flop I'd insta call given it would be a fairly large overbet.

Regards,
Woodguy

[uclabruinz]

Sometimes I wonder about just taking a -cEV approach in these situations of calling for set value. Yes, 7/8 times we lose 800 chips and have 5400 instead of 6200, but does that really change our equity in the tournament much (this is not a rhetorical question)? But on the other hand, 1/8 times we pretty much always double through to around 30 big blinds deep in a $162. One of you math guys can hit me over the head for saying this, if you like.

[DonT77]

I've run some math on this and Noah's intuition is right - jaming TT is clearly +EV, 99 is marginal, and 88 is -EV.

Using a range for Villain of 77+,KQs+,AQs+,AQo+ our 99 is .45 against that range and the pot is paying us 7050 on a 6200 bet - so that is real close to 0ev - ASSUMING that villain calls our push with his entire range. HOWEVER, if we assume that villain only calls with 99+/AK+ (52 of 84 hands) then, although we win the dead money when he folds (32 of 84 hands) we are much further behind when he does calls (99 is .315 against villain's new calling range).

If you do the math (using villain's new calling range)-
(.38 x 2050) + (.62 * .315 * 7050) + (.62 * .685 * -6200) =
chance villain folds & you win the dead money + chance villian calls and you double up + chance villain calls and stacks you...
you actually come up with -477 on the 6200 wager which is quite -EV.

Clearly, IMO, jamming with 99 is not the right play here. It is either a call and evaluate or a fold, and I'm not sure I like playing a medium pair OOP without much room for play ATF. Bottom line is - fold this.