PCA Bubble Question

[JoseGonzlez]

by pushing here your chances of busting cant be any higher than say 12 percent (just a guess.)

so theoretically that is 1200 of lost monies but it should be made up incresing your chance of going deeper even if it only slightly helps it should cover the 1200/

i mean there is a chance that folding here is neutral EV but its never a great play.

So i think the chance of a fold being aweful are alot higher than the chances of a fold being good. Not that ucla does not have some point.

[whynot?]

so i think thats exactl the question - lets take your assumption on 12% and lets further assume if you dont push you're going to get the $9889 for the first tier of itm - a bit conservative but ok. that means, that to push your expected value of dollars has to be equal to or greater then not pushing or 9889 =(-9889)*.12+x*.88. Solving for x that means you'd need to be comfortable your expected value of the push will yield 12,601. so the punchline is does the 10k in extra chips (.7*6300+.18*31,000 Assuming bb is the caller)) give you that extra $2700 in expected payout? I'd lean to no, but thats the question

[JoseGonzlez]

yeah i made a bad assumption that you get the first tier by folding.

so it is pretty complex question how much does folding hurt your chances of going deep vs. the benefits of making the money with greater certainty.

one other point though is say you are dealt AK on the next hand you surely are pushing it so folding does not guarantee you make the money either.

in a live situation i doubt you would be able to answer these question correctly enough to lean towards a fold.

but its a somewhat interesting question considering the flattish payouts.

of course if this play increased your chances of fnishing first by even a half percent its probably enough.

[Jiggymike]

If you want to fold your way into the money then you shouldn't even look at your cards and just muck them. I have no idea where you were relative to average stack but you can definitely last a few more rounds. Since doubling up won't increase your chances of a bigger payout, you might want to wait until you are in the money to start pushing hands. That being said, I think I would want to push a good hand like AQo because its pretty strong and you at least give yoruself a chance to get into the better money. Since I don't play live and $10000 is a lot of money to me, I would probably fold into the money on the bubble like a wuss if I thought it was almost 100% that I would make it. Tough decision in the heat of battle.

[Exitonly]

bump because i want mlg to see this and tell me whta the right thing to do is

[MLG]

my gut reaction is that AQ is an obvious push. I still think its right. I wouldnt be pushing hands like QT/JT/44/A6 though on the bubble in this spot...i dont think. Obviously exactly where I draw the line is dependent on the table. For me 66+ AT+/KQ/KJ seems about right. Adanthar is much better at these spots than me though.

One other thougt. If you can get called by AJ then pushing AQ has to be right. Its hard to know whether thats the case without being at the table though.

[uclabruinz]

MLG, are you talking cEV or $EV or both? I mean we can all agree that it's very +cEV to shove. But given the payout structure the $EV is much closer according to my "gut instinct," and certainly not "obvious."