Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?

[MyTurn2Raise]

alright, just placed a bet at Pinny
Florida to win by 1 to 10 points? Yes +320

EDITED as I messed up this whole part
I'm expecting Ohio State to win outright, but FLorida has a great shot of winning. I'm only estimating that the Gators win by more than 10 (when they win) about 12% of the time. Thus, I liked this line much more than the straight moneyline.[/edit]


Let's break it down
Florida offense:
6.5 ypp, 4.8 ypr, 8.5 yppa
tOSU defense:
4.6 ypp, 3.3 ypr, 5.7 yppa

tOSU offense:
6.3 ypp, 4.7 ypr, 8.5 yppa
Florida defense:
4.4 ypp, 2.8 ypr, 5.7 yppa

It appears to be a slight edge for Florida, but it's actually larger than appears. I corrected the numbers for strength of opponents. Florida faced much better defenses, while both teams faced similar offensive firepower throughout the year.

Definite edge to Florida. Through the adjustments, I have Florida at 25.19 points expected and tOSU at 22.45 points. This is before adjustments for turnovers, special teams, and other field position movements.

However, my turnover estimates have Florida making .7 more turnovers then tOSU on average in this matchup. This is based on interception ratios, sacks, tfls, and 3rd and long percentages throughout the season.

In addition, I have the Buckeyes gaining 2 points due to field position gains from Florida making more penalties.

Buckeyes gain about ~1 point from special teams deferential since Florida's place kicker is so freaking bad. There's a slight adv to Florida's punt team and an advantage to tOSU's kick returns. I think the KR advantage will be smaller than expected since Florida's youth on special teams should benefit dramatically from the extra weeks of practice.


All-in-all, that is about 5.5 points toward the Buckeyes.


I think the coaching equals out in this one. I give Tressel the edge in experience and game planning. However, I really do admire Meyer's trick play/gimmicks (which are harder than hell to prepare for--see Boise St/Oklahoma) and the way he has brought freshman along in safe situations (Harvin might create the big play needed).

MY estimates have tOSU -2.75 and the total at 47. I see good value in Florida +320 to win by 1 to 10 points.

[PITTM]

i got tOSU at -7(-104) earlier in the week and i am quite happy with it. 5 units too. holla.

rj

[NajdorfDefense]

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I'm not going to bet on this one, but I'm going to guess that such a high profile game as this one almost always has an unbeatable line.

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Line moves are done by the public, like last year when the head Handicapper at MGM Mirage said the spread on USC should be 4.5 in the newspaper, but they were opening at 6.5 due to square interest, and it immediately moved to 7.5/8 anyway. Obvs Texas won outright.

High profile means more Public bettors means more oppurtunity.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
i got tOSU at -7(-104) earlier in the week and i am quite happy with it. 5 units too. holla.

rj

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a good line. I just took them at -7 (-110). I don't follow college football much but it seems Ohio State has been unrated all year. I dont remember the lines towards the end of the year but I thought the Ohio State line was off against Texas, Iowa, and Minnesota. I am not sure how Florida keeps with them in this one.

[NajdorfDefense]

well, they have failed to cover 2 of 3 and 3 of 7. They got outgained v Illinois, so it's not like they are 1995 Nebraska or 2001 Miami reincarnated.

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to bet on this one, but I'm going to guess that such a high profile game as this one almost always has an unbeatable line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Line moves are done by the public, like last year when the head Handicapper at MGM Mirage said the spread on USC should be 4.5 in the newspaper, but they were opening at 6.5 due to square interest, and it immediately moved to 7.5/8 anyway. Obvs Texas won outright.

High profile means more Public bettors means more oppurtunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I stand corrected, thanks.

Lori

[MyTurn2Raise]

more prop bet fun

besides the under240.5 gross passing yards by Florida which Iggy turned me onto and is the best value of the whole game,
I've picked out a few more ones I've put small wagers on to get my gambling jones

Will Dallas Baker score a Touchdown? 3277) Yes +111
at Pinny
Dallas has scored a td in 8 of 13 games. One that he didn't was Western Carolina where he was injured for a large portion of the game. He remains Leak's goto guy. Ohio St's pass defense is tough, but if Florida catches a td pass or two, Baker is the man.

Rushing yards by Chris Wells 3264) Under 39.5 rushing yards -116 again @ Pinny
More than smoke on the internet forums that Chris Wells is heavily thinking about transferring. It's leaked that he is upset at the lack of carries both now and into the future. He has a huge fumbling issue. Tressel was afraid to use him late in the game against Michigan. Depite being over the key number in 7 of 12 (and 4 of the last 5 [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] ), C. Wells is now in the doghouse. I expect him to be used to break a big pass play from the backfield. His fumbling issues are just too much for the sweatered vest one.

[NajdorfDefense]

to be clear, obviously the sharp money moves the line as well, but that's normally later. Sharps weren't moving USC from 6.5 to 7.5 to 8.5 before the Rose Bowl last year. The line moved back down to 7-7.5 for kickoff, as well as a ML drop from 260 to 210 and I expect sharps were most of that move.

[JupiterUWG]

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After Michigan got exposed in the Rose Bowl, I would think a lot of smart money would be on Florida, as the sneaking suspicion about Ohio all year has been they are overrated.

Anyone know where the smarts are putting their money on this game?

[/ QUOTE ]

lolz at michigan getting "exposed"

[/ QUOTE ]

You think what, Mr. Lolz? It was a competitive game?

To me it looked a lot like the good old days when Bo would get stomped by the Pac-10 champ, year after year. "How could this happen?" we would ask. "They looked so good against the Big Ten!"

[/ QUOTE ]


looks to me like they were deflated by a season-ending letdown loss to their biggest rival while playing for the national title, then they sat for like 42 days, plus had to travel cross country and someone finally decided to throw the ball at morgan trent...."exposed" is just stupid, what did they expose? that USC has the fastest, most talented roster in the country while playing a relative home game?

[fnurt]

What you just said about USC having a more talented roster, Morgan Trent being a weakness on defense, etc. is like the dictionary definition of "exposed." Yeah, their shortcomings were exposed. But yeah, I agree, that loss they had to end the season was devastating compared to USC's inspiring last game.