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#31
11-09-2006, 07:24 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] How do so many people think baseball involves the most luck? The season is 162 games long, the better teams win out. [/ QUOTE ] Except the question isn't "which sport's regular season has the biggest luck factor?" but "which sport has the biggest luck factor?" Futhermore, you're making a faulty assumption about the natures of the games: each sport's single games have similar amounts of luck involved, therefore the season with the most games has the least amount of luck. But which has more luck - 16 games of chess or 162 hands of poker? If you look at only one game, baseball, soccer, and hockey probably have a similar amount of luck involved. [/ QUOTE ] I am pretty sure there is an actual ordinal ranking here, going baseball --> hockey --> soccer from most to least luck in a single game. There are a lot fewer real upsets in soccer than one would think, given the potential importance of a single goal. 
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#33
11-09-2006, 07:41 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
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In general, the sports with the lowest scores have the most luck and the sports with the highest scores (relatively) have the least luck. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this, but I would say that even though soccer is the lowest scoring out of all of the listed sports it has less luck than hockey or baseball. This is because the luck factor is mitigated by the fact that it's so hard to score even if you do catch a lucky break or bounce.
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#34
11-09-2006, 07:47 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
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easily football just based upon the fact that they only play 16 games and one game playoffs. Also the fact that the ball isn't round means it can bounce in random ways, which obviously increases the luck factor. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with football, for the reasons above and even more so because so many players sustain serious injuries. A couple of key players go down and the best team on paper won't even make the playoffs.
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#35
11-09-2006, 07:47 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
In general, the sports with the lowest scores have the most luck and the sports with the highest scores (relatively) have the least luck. While that isn't exact, it is a good rule of thumb. Thus, soccer, hockey and baseball have the most luck, while football is middle ground and basketball has the least. [/ QUOTE ] Then we should just adjust the number of points a score is worth in each sport so that they all have the same ammount of luck (for example, in soccer, make a goal worth 16 points so that its luck factor would drop to the same level as football). <font color="white"> I'm kidding of course </font>
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#36
11-09-2006, 07:49 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
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There are a lot fewer real upsets in soccer than one would think, given the potential importance of a single goal. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is likely because the teams are often more mis-matched than we usually see in American sports.
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#37
11-09-2006, 07:51 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
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easily football just based upon the fact that they only play 16 games and one game playoffs. Also the fact that the ball isn't round means it can bounce in random ways, which obviously increases the luck factor. [/ QUOTE ] EXACTLY what I was going to say. Nice post.
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#38
11-09-2006, 07:57 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] easily football just based upon the fact that they only play 16 games and one game playoffs. Also the fact that the ball isn't round means it can bounce in random ways, which obviously increases the luck factor. [/ QUOTE ] EXACTLY what I was going to say. Nice post. [/ QUOTE ] But you're still not answering the question, which, as has been clarified, has to do with single games. There's no question that football is nowhere near the most luck-riddled sport over the course of a single game. Single season? You've got a better case there.
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#39
11-09-2006, 07:58 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] easily football just based upon the fact that they only play 16 games and one game playoffs. Also the fact that the ball isn't round means it can bounce in random ways, which obviously increases the luck factor. [/ QUOTE ] EXACTLY what I was going to say. Nice post. [/ QUOTE ] How often does the ball bounce? And how often is it significant?
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#40
11-09-2006, 08:03 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
But you're still not answering the question, which, as has been clarified, has to do with single games. [/ QUOTE ] Whoops I didn't realize the OP had clarified that. I was wondering that myself when I read the OP, then quoted Assani's post when I got to it. Shame on me for not reading the whole thread. Anyway, it's pretty obvious that Basketball has the least luck, in both single games and for the season. For a season, I think football has the most luck. For a single game, I'm inclined to say it's football and baseball on the first tier, and then soccer and hockey on the second tier.
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