working on tough folds 3/6 & 5/10

[DING-DONG YO]

I wouldn't fold either of these, ever.

Then again I've been playing mostly at WPEX which is a little different.

[Leader]

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Do you understand this:

"Say he has 16 combos that beat you. How many combos does he need to have so that you can call? One"


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Yes

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Ok know let's assume that the range of hands that beat you are AA, JJ, TT, AQ of hearts.

lol I miss counted the combos the first the around. There are 15 combos that beat you. 6 AA 4 JJ 4 TT 1 AQ.

Ok now we have this situation. If it takes one combo for you to call when he has 16 combos that beat you, how many combos do you need to call when he has only 15 combos that beat you? Should be less then one right?

Some abstract math for demenstation purpuses: Say you have the fraction 1/2. You want the numerator (the bottum of the fraction) to be 7. What do you have to do to the top of the fraction so that the fraction represents the same quanity. i.e. 3/4 and 6/8 represent the same quanity, which is .75. Let's represent the top of the equation by x. Therefore (1/2)=(x/7). If you cross multibly 2x=7 and x=7/2 or 3.5. Now let's look back at the orginal equation "1/2=3.5/7" which is in fact a true statement.

Ok back to the original problem. You need be good 1/16 of the time to call, but there are only fifteen combos that beat you. So we need to convert 1/16 (we can also see this number as a ratio between the number of combos you need have to have call, 1, over the number he has that beat you, 16) to x/15. So 1/16=x/15. Cross multiply 16x=15. Therefore x=15/16 or .9375.

Good so far? Now let's assume he can only have two hands that you beat AJ and QQ. AJ is 12 combos. QQ is 6. So that's a total of 18. Now we need .9375 combos in order to call here. If you remember the orginal question it was how much does he have to play QQ and AJ this way for this to be a call. Well if we need .9375 combos and have 18 to work with, .9375/18 will give us the percentage of the time he must play AJ or QQ this way in order for us to call, or 5.2%.

[gopnik]

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Hand 2: I call down here, I don't like this fold at all

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[jt1]

Leader,

First off, thanks for taking so much time on my hand. I understand where you get your numbers but as it turns out, I don't understand this...

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"Say he has 16 combos that beat you. How many combos does he need to have so that you can call? One"


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I thought you were getting cute, not quoting a formuala I never seen before. And the formula doesn't make sense to me either. If you like, use x and y to show me the abstract formula because I don't know where you're getting your variables.

BTW, here's an easier way.


Using your hand ranges (not mine), he has 15 hands that beat me and 18 that I beat. Or for simplicity sake,

1) I beat slightly more hand combos than I loose to.

2) The pot is 16bb so I need to win 1/17 times to make calling correct.

3) We can estimate that for every 17 times villain check/3-bets the flop, he will have AJ or QQ 9 times and the other hands 8 times.

4) Once the turn card spikes, we know that all 8/17 times villain has a set or the nut flush, he will bet.

5) And of the 9/17 times that he has TPTK or QQ, he will bet x/9 times.

6) x has to be at least 1 for me to break even on a call.



Although, I'm curious to find out about the formula that you are using, mine can be used at the table and is more accurate.

[Leader]

lol I'm having a hard time with your math too. Anyway my point wasn't to use this at the table. It was simply to ilistrate that if he play AJ/QQ this way a very small percent of the time, you have to call on the river. At the table, I would probably think more along the lines of: The pot is huge; If I think about the hands that beat me vs. the hands that I beat, I relize that the combos for those to sets of hands are pretty close to eachother, or put a different way there are a lot of combos of QQ/AJ out there; Therefore even if he plays QQ/AJ this way very rarely, I need to call.

[jt1]

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I agree with MG though that it would be better if you just called the flop 3-bet. That way any wild action will be in front of you.


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Here is one thing that I definitely agree with. 1) For the reason you stated, 2) because I won't win this hand 1/3 of the time, and 3) I get to see a SD.

[jt1]

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2) because I won't win this hand 1/3 of the time,

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Am i retarded?