Iggy's Week 9 CFB picks

[Jibba]

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Because ML parlays are fun:

6-team parlay (1 unit to win 25.69 units):
Maryland +160, Baylor +175, Auburn -1405, USC -505, Georgia Tech -220, Washington State +100

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I didn't even know you could do ML parlays for some reason. Interesting.

[iggymcfly]

Michigan/Northwestern under 47 (1.5 units):

Mainly following MyTurn here as I like the analysis, but also Adrian Arrington just got charged with a misdemeanor in a domestic violence incident. Nothing is planned as direct result of the domestic violence charge, but Carr says that they'll investigate the drinking part since Arrington is 20, and the whole fight he had with his girlfriend centered on whether he was too drunk to drive after she picked him up from a bar. Basically, his status for the Northwestern game is very questionable and with Manningham already unlikely to play, the Michigan passing attack may be quite neutered.

[iggymcfly]

One thing I think I haven't been doing maybe as much as I could is analyzing moneylines independently of the point spread. Here's one that I feel has a lot of value:

Notre Dame -561 at Navy (6 units):

Charlie Weis isn't one to blow out an inferior opponent, and the random Notre Dame "f*ck around" factor is enough that I wouldn't want to lay the points, but I really can't see Navy winning this outright. They're coming off a 34-0 loss to a Rutgers team that's probably not even as good as Notre Dame and their starting QB's out for the season.

Also, while Navy often plays the Irish close, they haven't actually beaten them in 43 years. Charlie Weis is too smart and too good of a coach for this to be the year it happens. I think the true line here has to be at least -1000 and intuitively, I'd actually place it closer to -2000. This would just be a tremendously unlikely upset. I may actually add on to this later in the week.

[iggymcfly]

5-team teaser (1 unit to win 4.5 units):

Wake Forest -2.5, Notre Dame -7, Texas -5.5, Baylor +10.5, Washington State +7

[iggymcfly]

Washington State +1 at UCLA

I think that UCLA's getting way too much credit for keeping it close with Notre Dame, when that has more to do with the Irish sleepwalking against mediocre opponents than anything. WSU hasn't lost to a team outside the Top Ten all year, and their win over Oregon last week, (up 27-3 after three quarters) was much more impressive than anything UCLA's done all year. They played USC close and wins over Baylor and Oregon State are also starting to look more impressive as the season goes on. Their freshman RB Dwight Tardy seemed to have a real breakthrough against Oregon running for a career-high 145 yards, and I expect him to continue to play well as the season develops.

Also, UCLA may have some hangover from the loss to Notre Dame, as while they played well, it has to haunt them to lose in the last minute in a game that they thought they had wrapped up. UCLA has lost to both Oregon (30-20) and Washington (29-19) this year which are both teams that are fairly comparable to WSU, although I'd actually rate the Cougars a little better. As far as the Sagarin ratings go, in close games I like the rating over the predictor to determine point spreads, and the rating puts WSU as a 5-point favorite which is pretty close to where I'd put the fair line without factoring in momentum. With momentum, I'd say the Cougs should win by 7.

[NajdorfDefense]

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Anyone like GT (-6) at home against Miami?

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Yes. Line opened at 4 went to 6 back down to -5, so I like it a lot here.

Naj

[iggymcfly]

Texas over 33.5 at Texas Tech (1 unit)

Running the ball is one of Texas's biggest strengths and Texas Tech's run defense is terrible. Against good running teams, TTU gave up 250 yards rushing to Texas A&M and 228 yards to Colorado. Also, Texas has an attacking defense that forces a lot of turnovers and Graham Harrell's very mistake prone. I think a pick-six could easily inflate the total here.

Finally, Texas has scored at least 37 points this year against every opponent not ranked in the Top 25, and TTU's defense is nowhere near the caliber of Ohio State, Oklahoma, or Nebraska. Against decent, but mediocre opponents, Texas put up 37 on Iowa State and 63 on Baylor. I like the Longhorns to score 38 against Texas Tech.

[mulebennett]

Iggy- to further your point about Maryland over FSU, FSU has announced that WR De'Cody Fagg is out for the game Saturday

[iggymcfly]

Oh right, I saw that about Fagg last night, and forgot to mention it here. He's actually probably the most talented player on the offense, I think that loss will hurt Florida State quite a lot.

I have another team total pick too:

La. Lafayette under 6.5 (+140) at Arkansas (1.5 units):
Just a value play as the price seems off here. Arkansas's got a very good defense that's been improving throughout the season and held Ole Miss to 3 points last week. The only time ULL faced a defense of Arkansas's caliber, they scored 7 against Alabama. They did score 19 against a pretty good defense in FIU, but they also were held to 6 by Arkansas State. Basically, I think this is about a 50/50 prop, maybe 55/45 against, but in the long-term, I think this has definite value.

[sshan83]

Arkansas plays UL-Monroe. UL-Lafayette plays Middle Tennessee St.