Oh lord, Another AA hand. Don't kick me out of the Micros. - Page 4

MrWookie · #31 10-10-2006, 10:21 AM

LHE is all about not being able to protect your hand but instead electing to bet or raise for value. Very seldom do you get good opportunities to protect, and when you do, it's only from 4-5 out hands, typically. Why on earth would you just call here when that 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is one of the best cards in the deck for you? The only debate on this hand is whether to 3bet the flop versus calling the flop and raising a good turn. You have to put in one more raise somewhere, because otherwise you're missing value.

Str8Fish · #32 10-10-2006, 10:42 AM

After our conversation last night, wife was like, get to bed beyotch, so I was like nuh uh no you di-int and she was like oh yea I dii-i... long story short, I had to go to bed. I did save our conversation though and I'll hash out what we talked about now.

First, let's talk about what BB might have. He's calling a raise out of the BB, so his hand selection is obviously looser than if he had cold-called. I'd guess preflop, A range such as: A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, 86s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo+, 22+. Of this range, BB might c/r the flop with obviously any of the heart cards. This includes Ah2h+(9), Kh8h+(4), Qh8h+(3), Jh8h+(2), 8h6h(1), Th8h(1), 6h5h(1) = 21 combinations. He could also be doing it with a set. 44(3), 99(3), 77(3) = 9 combinations. A c/r would be effective with an A-high flush draw as well, so that includes Ah9o+(5). Maybe Kh4o(3), Kh9o(3), Kh7o(3) = 9 would be a good move too. How about less obvious ones like 97s(3), 86s(4) not necessarily hearts, but 2-pair and straight draw? Top pair hands are also in this guy's c/r range maybe... A9(6-3=3 Ah9o already counted), K9s(3-1=2 Kh9h), Q9s(3-1=2), J9s(3-1=2) = 9 complete combinations. I don't think people c/r this that often fearing a flush though... I'm going to take 1/3 of that value, so maybe 3 combinations of the 9 actually c/r the flop pair of 9's without a flush draw. Still seems somewhat high, but whatever.

Ok, against BB's c/r under the assumption of the above range, we are behind 21+9+3=33 and ahead of 5+9+4+3=21. Even if we were to add all 9 of the combinations of top pair, it'd be 33 losing, 27 winning and we still wouldn't have an advantage.

Our equity is smaller relative to his possible range of hands, so 3-betting would be spew. In addition, if the turn comes out another heart, many more hands of BB pull ahead of our own, not including what MP3 is calling along with in this situation.

The turn is a nice card for us though. We pull ahead of 2-pair and still ahead of BB's flush draws. We also have a lone 2 outs to beat him, unless he has 44 if we're up against a flush/boat. I don't think him betting after c/r changes anything of his range. The count is now 30 losing, 24 winning, with an obvious 2 outs to his (30-1=)29. Against BB, we have ~44% equity.

We now need to consider MP3 somewhat. If we raise the turn, we offer him 10.25:2 = 5.125:1. He can profitably call if he has ~7.5 outs. If we raise here, is it for value or is it for protection? What hands are we protecting against? With 7.5 outs, MP3 isn't going away if he's on a flush draw. He's also not going away if he has a set and slowplayed it on the flop. A pair of 9's might fold out fearing the flush/boat possibility. MP3 isn't the brightest poker player obviously (with his cold-call). In other words, most likely even if we do raise here, we have a slim possibility that MP3 will actually fold out. We would obviously love for him to fold out A-high flush draw, but very doubtful he's doing that. There a greater, but still small chance of him folding out a K-high flush draw, which still would be more advantageous to us. Any flush draw he has we want him to fold, but are going to have a hard time doing so.

There's also what BB is betting at us. If we raise in this spot, what do we do if BB 3-bets? I think it'd be pretty obvious unless this guy is a ultra-LAGGY that we're down to our last 2 outs, and might not have the pot odds to call it profitably.

So let's see, yesterday after talking to wookie, we agreed that raising the turn would be best. After writing this out, I'm starting to wonder if the raise actually is beneficial. We're in a situation where it is hard to defend our hand against MP3 on the turn by raising, and we're behind BB's range 30 losing, 24 winning, so it's not a value raise.

I might just change my line to calling the turn. (GASP- flame away)

River is even more difficult for us. Would BB really bet a busted flush draw into two opponents? Also, K9s(1) pulls in front of us now. I think it's safe to say that a busted flush draw most of the time won't bet this unimproved. There were 14 hands that were on a flush draw for BB that we were ahead of. I think we need to half this (or even more) as possible hands that bet ui flush draws into two opponents on the river. So, that leaves us with 30 losing, 24-7=17 winning. We win this ~17/(30+17) = 36% of the time against BB. Pot odds are laying down 1/11.25 = 9%, so it's still an obvious call.

threads13 · #33 10-10-2006, 10:56 AM

Str8-

What about MP3 having something like top or middle pair, or even some sort of PP? We can protect against those hands.

Str8Fish · #34 10-10-2006, 11:28 AM

yea, I don't know. I know that of anyone, we have a better range against MP3. Do we want someone we're ahead of to get out? Do we really want to be HU against someone that has a better range than us, or do we want our MP3 loser to pad the pot for us some by calling along? I don't know. I wouldn't be happy to see a heart on the river cause a flush draw is a large portion of MP3's range at this point.

MrWookie · #35 10-10-2006, 11:30 AM

A few things.

1. Since the board paired the bottom card, top or middle pair is drawing to two outs against us, and a call protects us against that hand.

2. MP might be willing to call one bet drawing with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Xx, but not two, putting us on a higher flush draw.

3. OTOH, 9x might be willing to call two cold, being unable to fold top pair. A call of one bet for them is a mistake, but a cold call of two is a bigger one.

Str8Fish · #36 10-10-2006, 11:48 AM

On the turn, we're OOP to MP3, so we don't know how he's going to act against whatever we do. All we know is that he cold-called preflop, and called on the flop. If we could come up with some type of sick range that follows that line, then we could possibly see what general percentage of the time he has top pair 9's, mid pair 7's, flush draw, etc. I know I don't want him in there if he's drawing to a flush. Only way of getting him out of there is if he's got a low flush draw or maybe top pair, definitely mid pair would fold.

Say we raise in this spot... ok and we try to fold out MP3. It really doesn't matter what he does - unless he 3-bets, we tried protecting. I think the more crucial point is what BB would do facing a raise on the turn. If he 3-bets, I think we have to fold. If he calls, we're leading a non-heart river right?

I think if we raise to protect, we have to fold to either of them 3-betting us. Hell, if I called and MP3 raised, I think I'd fold there too.

Am I making this more complicated than it needs to be?

threads13 · #37 10-10-2006, 12:09 PM

It is a tricky spot here for sure. I aggree that if you raise you need to fold to a 3-bet. It is likely that if you raise and MP3 calls that he has a high heart and he would call whether you raised or not. However, if just call and MP3 has top or middle pair, he is not really making much of a mistake in calling. If you raise and he calls he is making a mistake. Since this pot is large on the turn, you want MP3 out and I think there is a decent chance that you can get MP3 to fold in this spot.