|
|
#31
10-09-2006, 05:22 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: UFC UFN Thread
[ QUOTE ]
jmillerdls, The things that worry me about Florian are that he has a reach advantage, can submit Sherk, but the biggest worry is that he likes to and is good at throwing elbows. A decent elbow will end this fight. This fight doesn't jump out at me as having good value on either side. With UFC I'm only looking for lines with great value to bet on. [/ QUOTE ] Reach advantage?? He's 30-2 against guys who have the reach advantage. He probably hasn't fought anyone where he has had the reach advantage. He'll also be cutting down for this fight whereas in the past he always fought at 170 and 170 is his walking around weight. He's the bigger, stronger, faster, more experienced, better conditioned fighter with better wrestling and standup that has never been submitted and has practically made a career of GNP'ing submission fighters. Kenny Florian is 4-2 and has "good elbows"... ok I think Matt Hughes has good elbows too but he couldn't stop Sherk. 
|
|
#32
10-09-2006, 06:56 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: UFC UFN Thread
the only thing that worries me is the ortiz line looks to good to be true and there is some kind of fix. cause i'd put shamrocks chances of legitimately winning at 0. are there really that many goofs willing to bet on shamrock to keep this line where it is? gonna empty my account on tito probably after mnf tonight.
|
|
#33
10-09-2006, 07:59 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: UFC UFN Thread
This is the highest UFC line in history, as far as i know.
And one of the highest lines (i'd say top five, maybe) alltime in MMA. 1) Linesmakers are underestimating Tito's dominance of Ken - they opened this line low, to begin with. I honestly would have hung at least -1000 to open, and probably well upwards of that. Just yet another example of a bad MMA line, here 2) yeah, people love longshots in MMA. Most of the time they're right, as the "puncher's chance" is a great equalizer in a lot of fights. But there are certain fights where a puncher's chance doesn't even apply, and this is one of them. 3) I'm not kidding when I say my entire sports betting bankroll is wrapped up on Ortiz. The line has moved to the point that you could have locked in a nice little arb if you were worried, (currently -900 Ortiz, +810 Shammy) but give that I'd already consider this so strongly +EV I can't imagine arbing this. And yes, I'm serious in what I said before, that this is a +EV bet anything short of -1900.
|
|
#34
10-09-2006, 08:02 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: UFC UFN Thread
Also there's zero chance of a fix here.
Tito hates Ken way to much to lay down for him. Not to mention, it would screw up Dana's plans, and it would screw up Tito's plans. Dana wants Liddell/Ortiz 2 to headline UFC 66 in December. Tito wants a shot at Chuck's belt. Tito doesn't have a lot of time left in his career, a mistep here will hurt him badly. And, of course, Tito wants to shut Ken up.
|
|
#35
10-09-2006, 08:04 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: UFC UFN Thread
[ QUOTE ]
Also there's zero chance of a fix here. Tito hates Ken way to much to lay down for him. Not to mention, it would screw up Dana's plans, and it would screw up Tito's plans. Dana wants Liddell/Ortiz 2 to headline UFC 66 in December. Tito wants a shot at Chuck's belt. Tito doesn't have a lot of time left in his career, a mistep here will hurt him badly. And, of course, Tito wants to shut Ken up. [/ QUOTE ] i agree, this fight is probably the closest thing to free money in the history of mma.
|
|
#36
10-09-2006, 08:43 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: UFC UFN Thread
a few reasons:
-this is the ultimate takedown championships, and im pretty confident that herman can put macdonald on his back while staying out of trouble often enough to get a points win. -statistically, TUF peeps have an excellent record with their first UFN appearances. -zuffa is looking to build herman up, not derail its investment. despite Godless Canuck Propoganda to the opposite, i do believe that macdonald is essentially a sacrificial lamb, albeit a dangerous one, and would be suprised not only in his aptitude if he wins, but also of zuffa's stupidity in overestimating herman's abilities with his first real public fight for zuffa.
|
|
#38
10-09-2006, 09:47 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: UFC UFN Thread
That's definitely the most lopsided line I've seen in the UFC since I've been following it. The most lopsided line I can remember in any MMA fight is when Big Nog fought Zulu, which was around -1900 I think. Zulu v. Fedor might have been even steeper, but maybe not because he fought Fedor first before people knew how much Zulu sucks.
|
|
#39
10-09-2006, 09:56 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: UFC UFN Thread
[ QUOTE ]
That's definitely the most lopsided line I've seen in the UFC since I've been following it. The most lopsided line I can remember in any MMA fight is when Big Nog fought Zulu, which was around -1900 I think. Zulu v. Fedor might have been even steeper, but maybe not because he fought Fedor first before people knew how much Zulu sucks. [/ QUOTE ] What about Crocop/Minowa? What was that? I remember Rampage/Yoon being -1000 (clearly too high) Nog/Tamura -1500
|
|
#40
10-09-2006, 10:47 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: UFC UFN Thread
[ QUOTE ]
Different card, but I'd much rather bridge jump with Shawn Sherk at -321 ... I can't imagine Florian having a better chance vs Sherk than Shamrock does vs Ortiz. [/ QUOTE ] the more i think about it, the more i consider sherk something of a lock here.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
