KTs , Insta call on river with 1 pair

[DaveRockNo20]

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If I intend to call that river bet, I would definately bet the turn.

Dumle

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ummm, this is wrong... If you intend to fold the river, then bet the turn, if you intend to call the river, checking is best.

True

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yup

[Dumle]

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ummm, this is wrong... If you intend to fold the river, then bet the turn, if you intend to call the river, checking is best.


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You misunderstood me. I am only putting in money on one street here and I prefer to do that on turn, rather than river.

Dumle

[Tickner]

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ummm, this is wrong... If you intend to fold the river, then bet the turn, if you intend to call the river, checking is best.


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You misunderstood me. I am only putting in money on one street here and I prefer to do that on turn, rather than river.

Dumle

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He understands this but he (and I for that matter) think you are putting it in on the wrong street.

[True]

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ummm, this is wrong... If you intend to fold the river, then bet the turn, if you intend to call the river, checking is best.


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You misunderstood me. I am only putting in money on one street here and I prefer to do that on turn, rather than river.

Dumle

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He understands this but he (and I for that matter) think you are putting it in on the wrong street.

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If we bet the turn and a heart comes on the river, we lose money....

If villain would bluff the river and also call a bet lighter on the river because no heart came down and he doesn't have to worry about a flush coming in and also thinks we may be bluffing then checking the turn is best.

The more passive and stupid the opponent is requires more of a rethink into where we should be betting.

For instance :

Loose / Passive < --------------------- > Aggressive
Bet Turn < --------------------- > Bet river

The relationship between these 2 is almost directly proportional.

True

[Dumle]

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He understands this but he (and I for that matter) think you are putting it in on the wrong street.

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If you intend to call a river bet, which I am not sure you should, there's so many reason for betting this turn instead. The times you have him beat and he doesn't improve you will more than likely get to showdown anyway, so getting to showdown is not really an issue here.

If he has the ace of hearts, you really should charge him for that. If he calls, he is making a mistake. If he folds, well that's good also, much better than giving him a free card. The key here is that you will not make up for lost money on the turn on the river, since he will not bluff often enough, or big enough, with missed draws.

You can safely fold to a check-raise. If he is on a draw, he will more than likely push it on the flop, so a check-raise here means most of the time a real hand.

That's some of them, I can probably come up with a couple of more if I get some time.

Dumle

[Dumle]

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If we bet the turn and a heart comes on the river, we lose money....


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Not true, if he didn't have the odds to call, we gain.

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If villain would bluff the river and also call a bet lighter on the river because no heart came down and he doesn't have to worry about a flush coming in and also thinks we may be bluffing then checking the turn is best.


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I don't see many weaker hands calling this flop, that doesn't contain a heart. And if he indeed has a heart, it is imperative to bet turn.

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For instance :

Loose / Passive < --------------------- > Aggressive
Bet Turn < --------------------- > Bet river

The relationship between these 2 is almost directly proportional.


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I agree, but there are more things to consider when deciding whether to bet turn or river, such as the texture of the board, what you hold, etc. Plus, OP didn't give us a read on the opponent so this is not really relevant.

Dumle

[True]

Dumle, you are completely under-estimating the bluffing frequency or value bet frequency of a weaker hand on this river in my honest opinion.

You can argue that betting the turn is imperitive, however there are a couple of flaws in your extrapolation of his ranges.

Your range is : Naked Draws = 20% equity, Draws + made hands = 30% equity, Made hands that beat us = ~95% equity.

If villain never c/r the turn as a bluff and never bets the river with a worse hand, then as long as Naked Draws and Weaker Made hands + draws = ~2x Stronger made hands then your analysis is correct.

I however think there is some merit to dismantling this range slightly, also to disagree with the fact that he doesn't c/r with a weaker hand... Your definition of this player puts him squarely on the diagram where we should check the turn, however a more unknown player has more erratic tendencies. The diagram is slightly skewed to show that against an unknown player we should favour or at least give thought to the fact that there would be merit in waiting to the river. Not everyone would release middle pair here on the flop, not everyone would release a gutshot. "We may have Ah-x on the river" and Villain may try and bluff his way to the pot, we have played this hand in similar fashion to that of Ah-x and it could easily be perceived to Villain that we would fold this.

A lot of players will bluff this river given this situation, and there are a lot of hands that we are ahead of. Betting the turn also knocks out weak flush draws, weaker made hands that would have invested money in the river in the form of a c/c or a bluff which we can capitalise on.

True

[Don Key E37]

I probably fold k 10 suited to a good size utg raise but thats just me and I think its fine. Flop good. Turn good. I definetly think this is the way to go here, and dont think the times you are ahead make betting here worth the times you are behind or drawing dead.

River: Well this is tough, and I completely see why you decided to post this hand, and am very suprised you instacalled. I'm trying more and more to take my time with these tough decisions, especially on the turn and river where the bets are usually much bigger. After the way we played the turn, it seems like you almost have to call. As you were basically hoping for Ah qx or whatever to bluff at it on the river. The problem is poor players love to check raise. And if he happended to be a limit holdem convert they love the check call/ check raise line, and many do this all the time with sets in limit holdem. He could also be trying for this line with ah Kx. So again this spot is tough. I almost feel that this is a 0 EV play. I think the times you pick off a bluff, or worse hand are probably about even to the times you are ahead.

So I really have no advice, other than I don't think you would've played the hand bad whatever you decided to do on the river.

[matrix]

some of you guys are giving villain here waaaaaaaaaaaaay too much credit imo.

I'm with db/quark/keyser - this hand is superdeluxe standard (if we turn a blind eye to pf)

If we check the turn we are committed to calling pretty much any bet on any safe river. I think OP's line here is more +EV than betting the turn IME *lots* of villains (especially those with ~300BB stacks who are more likely to be gambooolers) tend to bluff the river if we check the turn through.

[Tickner]

Can someone PLEASE explain to me whats wrong with the PF call?

Me an True talked quite a bit about this hand and we both agree that every street is pretty standard, especially preflop.