a rock question (show me how smart you are)

[tolbiny]

Goddamn it why don't you use the search function. I posted this question just 27 months ago.
Only got 3 responses though.

[brick]

[ QUOTE ]

your assertion that somebody who posts the bb gets 70% of it's value in a 2 bet pot etc. is only when they get to keep the money should they win the pot. they dont in this case.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]
That's true. They don't get to keep 1 BB of the pot, so you would have to adjust slightly for that.

Could we estimate this by just saying that an average pot is 10BB and 1BB doesn't "count", so adjust by reducing the 70% benchmark by 10%?

[elindauer]

Hi stinkypete,

[ QUOTE ]
isn't the "EV cost" here just $200 - (value of rock)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that is an interesting point!

Let's say that the EV gained by posting the rock is x . We can now say that this EV is equal to the EV of posting normally, minus the EV loss of winning a pot with the rock in it. Noting that we can write the EV lost to the rock as 200 - x, and guessing that we win the pot 30% of the time, we see:

x = $120 - .3 * (200 - x)


Which we can then solve for x and get $85.17 .

Note that this formula is a function of the EV of posting normally, and the probability of winning the hand given that you have posted. Both of these numbers could be determined experimentally given enough data, or simply argued over here.

Using my original number of 2/3 BB as the EV of straddling, you'd see a rock value of $100.48 so my initial hand waving at it was pretty close!

good luck.
eric


PS. Interesting to note that the rock has maximum value for a TAG... a player who maximizes the EV of posting the rock but does it without winning tons of pots.

[BenA]

Hey guys, this is a very intriguing question. Posters have come up with some advanced mathematical models, some very logical points, and many things I'll have to think about in the morning [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

However... I can't help but bring up a certain logistical problem. At first, I was wondering whether the question could be rephrased "how much would you pay for someone else to raise any two cards for you UTG." But since the rock must be reposted by everyone UTG, the question becomes more complicated. Sure, it may inspire more action and hence bigger pots (and more profit for an expert), but that also means killing the edge with your marginal hands and running into lots of reverse implied odds situations.

And since that 'rock' is technically deducted from every pot you win, the issue begins to center around the very first hand you straddle UTG. After that, you are playing many 'killpot' type situations without the full value of the pot odds (deduct a BB from each). Therefore, the question is, how much would you pay someone for a one-time investment of a straddle when you cannot choose your cards to play, and how much more profit can you make from the subsequent batting around of that same rock? In other words, since you can't win the rock itself, how much profit does your first straddle + subsequent bigger pots with good hands + expert play postflop make you?

To me the answer seems quite simple. Not much. Sure, your excellent play will entitle you to more than your fair share in this situation, but it would do that NO MATTER WHO PAYED FOR THE ROCK! Wouldn't you rather somebody else paid for it? You're gonna have to keep posting it later anyways. I hate to be the voice of dissent, but the rock has only investment value. You cannot keep the principle. While you might straddle for fun, you get to keep it all if you win the pot.

If someone offered me this rock, I'd give them about 40$. That's my highest estimate for the gamble of my straddle and my subsequent play.

Edit: Holy crap. Somehow I thought I was in Medium Stakes. Oops. Well, I'll leave my opinions for the more esteemed minds here, either to be trashed or debated. I'll be in this forum soon though...

[elindauer]

It's interesting to note that while this is the EV UTG, the general formula for the value of the rock almost certainly has a term in it that is dependent on seat position. For example, if you are trying to decide how much to pay for the rock, the answer probably depends on not only your seat, but the position of the player who is doing the selling!

It's an interesting question to wonder what you would pay (or require in payment) to take the rock from the player UTG and throw it away... is it even clear that you benefit by having the rock (true value somewhere around $95) posted and acting like a $200 raise? We know that the UTG player clearly wins (vs throwing it away)... how much of that does he take from you? Enough that you are losing money vs having him not post it at all?

It's clear that for some rock value, it's actually to your disadvantage to have the rock in play posted by someone else!

I don't really know how to get at this answer, but my intuition is that having $95 in extra dead money acting like a $200 raise is really not much of an advantage for you. How is your EV effected on the button when someone posts the rock UTG? What about the big blind?

-eric

[Bartholow]

I think the rock mostly takes value away from the blinds.