UFC 63 9/23/06

[Recliner]

Of course superior skill is going to trump raw strength. The only problem is that I don't think Penn is going to be able to do much on his back and that is where he is going to be for the majority of the fight. Penn is going to have a rough time from the bottom. He can't be eating a couple elbows or hammerfists every time he tries to do something because those are going to open a cut and end the fight. He also has to make sure he doesn't get his ass slammed. Penn doesn't have to worry about this with most opponents but Hughes is bigger and by far stronger.

I hope Penn shows up for weigh in looking like he has in the past. Hughes will show up looking ripped and hopefully that will drive the line well over +200, in which case I'll happily bet on Penn. I like betting on UFC because I feel that there are always lines that give huge edges. Under +200 I feel that Penn leaves too many question marks.

[jmillerdls]

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I really dont see how BJ Penn is going to win this fight.

If youve seen the last fight, it wasnt so much Penn beating Hughes, but Hughes beating himself. Penn got the takedown early basically because Hughes took a horrible halfass shot that just put himself on his back. Then when Penn mounted Hughes, he rolled to his stomach right away which is the worst thing that he couldve done and would never do now.

Hughes has gotten so much better since that fight. Hughes' striking continues to get better and better as hes been training in the best camp in the UFC...whereas Penn has taken most of the time since then off. When they are on their feet, Hughes should get the best of Penn.

Penn is a great jiu-jitsu guy, but we saw Matt Hughes out jiu-jitsu Royce Gracie. Put that on top of the fact that I cant imagine Penn taking Hughes down, and I just dont see an aspect of the fight where the advantage would go to Penn.

And lets not forget that Penn took up this fight on short notice. And that Hughes is avenging a loss which will give him a mental edge and extra fire to train harder.

Hughes -206 seems way off to me and an extremely valuable bet.

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Well, while I think Hughes is definately the favorite...I think to say that you can't see how Penn can win this fight is clearly a lack of imagination.

Penn only recently came back to the UFC, but he's fought in the interim (since the last Hughes matchup).

Penn has the EXACT skills needed to beat Hughes (one of the few guys in the world). If you say Penn can't beat Hughes, then you are basically saying no one in the world can beat Hughes (which isn't a horrible statement, but i think it's possible).

Penn has great wrestling skills. He can fight a takedown as good as just about anyone. It takes a lot of effort to get him down.

Next, Penn is a jui-jitsu prodigy. To suggest that Hughes can hang with him in this discipline is naive. I think Hughes has VERY good submissions, but he's not as good as Penn.

Next, Penn is better of the feet. Plain and simple. I don't see how this can be argued. Hughes is competent on his feet...but he's not nearly as skilled as Penn.

And finally...Penn doesn't get finished. He's fought great fighters, and I don't ever remember seeing him get knocked out, or submitted. I saw him lose a decision to Pulver, I saw him lose a decision to Pierre...but he was never close to getting finished.

This fight could go 5 rounds. Hughes isn't use to going 5 rounds. I know Hughes is in great shape...but going 5 rounds is hard for anyone. In the 5th round, could Penn make something happen?

I don't know. Penn will, without doubt, have to be at the top of his game. Most importantly, he will have to be in great shape. If he does that, I have no doubt in my mind he has the tools to win the fight.

However, Hughes is always capable of taking the guy down, and throwing elbows for 5 rounds. If Penn isn't ready, I have no doubt this is how it will go. Regardless...this is NOT a mis-match.

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I disagree that Penn has the exact tools to beat Hughes. In fact Id go as far to say that Hughes has the exact tools to beat a guy like Penn. Hughes is going to be able to put this fight exactly where he wants it.

Penn is scrappy by all means, but by no means is he a great wrestler. He squirms his hips around well when a takedown attempt is being shot on him, but a decent wrester will be able to control his hips. GSP had 4 takedown attempts and he missed the first one because he didnt control Penn's hips. He corrected that error and got the next 3 rather easilly. Hughes' wrestling skills are far superior to GSP's and hes much stronger than GSP.

In my opinion, in order to be able to beat Hughes more than 1/3 of the time, you need to be very well rounded obviously, but then also have one of two things: be a better wrestler than Hughes or have 1 punch knockout power like Liddell.

Im not saying Hughes is better at jiu-jitsu than Penn. That would be rediculous obviously. What I am saying is that Hughes is good enough to stay out of Penn's submission attempts most of the time.

When I said that Hughes should get the best of Penn on their feet, I didnt mean that Hughes would out strike Penn. (Although I can understand thats how it seemed like I meant). What I really mean is that Hughes will be able to dictate what happens on the feet. Hughes has gotten very good at closing the gap between himself and his opponent without putting himself at much risk. Once he gets close, he just manhandles his opponents and gets takedowns like its nothing...often times picking them up and slamming them up against the fence. Penn has a very active guard and if he gets put up against the fence it should limit what Penn can do from his guard. This is what GSP did to Penn...he closed the gap, pushed him to the fence and got his takedowns. I fully expect Hughes to do the exact same thing.

If this fight goes 5 rounds, I really dont see how anyone could argue that would be advantagous to Penn. With a full amount of training, he faded in the 2nd round against GSP. He took this fight on short notice. If this goes to a decision then its undoubtedly in Hughes' favor.

And Id like to reiterate that the fact that Hughes is getting a chance to avenge a loss is a HUGE factor. Hughes is not going to take this fight lightly.

I think Penn is going to need Hughes to make a big mistake in order to win this. But I think we will see the best Matt Hughes weve ever seen, and I think that such a mistake is highly unlikely.

Obviously Im interested in discussing any alternative viewpoints.

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Well, the first part is a bit silly. Hughes clearly has one of the most dangerous skill sets in the world, that's why he's been on top for so long. Obviously it is good against Penn, just like it's good against every other fighter in the world.

Well all know what Hughes brings, and how effective it is, that's why I focused on what Penn brings, and how it will be effective against Hughes.

Next thing...Penn is a great wrestler. If you are basing your opinion on the GSP fight, you are being mislead. He got injured in the first round of that fight, and did not resemble the BJ Penn that everyone knows from that point on.

If you want to know how good of a wrestler he is, check out his fight against Pulver where he put him on his back (how many times has that happened?), or the fight with Gomi where he was on top at times (Gomi is a terrific wrestler, and was more of a GnP guy back then).

Hughes can avoid submissions with ease against guys that are not extremely good at jui-jitsu. Hallman and Verrisimo gave him tons of trouble. These guys are pure jui-jitsu, and Hughes looked like trash against both of them (winning a controversial decision over Verrisimo). Penn is every bit as good at jui-jitsu as either of these guys, and will always be capable of finishing with a submission.

Next, Hughes will take down Penn. I don't see how this relates to the stand-up game, or dictating it. When they are on their feet, Hughes is in serious trouble...simple as that. Hughes will do everything he can to get it to the mat as quickly as possible. If you want to call shooting and clinching (and then going for the slam), being in control of the standup, I guess you can...but I consider that more of a transition state. On the feet...in the standup, Penn will be completely in control, and dominant.

I'm not saying that if the fight goes to a decision that it's a good thing for Penn. I'm saying Penn has 5 rounds of starting standing up against Hughes. This is a good thing. Hughes will be significantly less effective with takedowns in rounds 4 and 5...right? I think that's a good thing for Penn.

I agree with you that Hughes will be in great shape for this fight, but I think Penn will be as well.

I think Hughes is definately motivated to avenge his loss...but I think there is also a lot of pressure on him. I think it works both ways. His attempt to get revenge on Hallman looked like a serious over-anxious Hughes that would be doomed against Penn.

I don't think Hughes has to make a mistake to lose the fight. I think if you put the best Matt Hughes against the best B.J. Penn, Penn wins more often. Will the best Penn show up? He did the last time they fought...but who knows. All I know for sure is that counting Penn as a non-factor is a huge mistake.

[jmillerdls]

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Of course superior skill is going to trump raw strength. The only problem is that I don't think Penn is going to be able to do much on his back and that is where he is going to be for the majority of the fight. Penn is going to have a rough time from the bottom. He can't be eating a couple elbows or hammerfists every time he tries to do something because those are going to open a cut and end the fight. He also has to make sure he doesn't get his ass slammed. Penn doesn't have to worry about this with most opponents but Hughes is bigger and by far stronger.

I hope Penn shows up for weigh in looking like he has in the past. Hughes will show up looking ripped and hopefully that will drive the line well over +200, in which case I'll happily bet on Penn. I like betting on UFC because I feel that there are always lines that give huge edges. Under +200 I feel that Penn leaves too many question marks.

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I'm a little suprised that people think Penn will be so ineffective from his back. I can't imagine they are saying this based on Penn's skills, since he has shown tremendous skill from his back in past fights...so I have to assume it's because of how good Hughes is on top.

However, that argument really doesn't hold up that well. When Hughes has fought top tier bjj guys (don't include Royce, please), he has not been nearly effective from on top as against guys like Trigg, or Riggs, or Sherk.

Everyone knows he lost to Hallman twice, but the more recent fight against Charuto Verrisimo that he won the controversial decision over, he was horrible. He was so scared of submissions that he turned into a Lay and Pray guy. He can't just bash away with elbows and hammerfists against Penn, without always being at risk.

If he shuts down on top like he did against Verrisimo, it will get stood up...which is an even worse proposition.

[Performify]

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Though, I think Renzo Gracie is a human punching bag, and shouldn't count for much.


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I agree Renzo's loss to Penn is certainly at the tail end of his career. Its a lot like the Hughes win over Gracie in my opinion.

Renzo is a really interesting case study. He opened his career with nine consecutive wins (and a draw at the Pride 1) at the early WCC and Pride events, and then suffered his first loss in early 2000 and then dropped his next two in late 2000 and early 2001, came back and beat a cake fighter eight months later, then tried another fight seven months later where he lost, another fight a year and a half later against now-UFC-fighter Carlos Newton and lost, and then was off for almost two years before he fought and lost to Penn.

So yeah, given that Renzo is 1-6 in fights since Y2K, the fact that he put together an impressive string of wins in the mid-to-late nineties (including victories over Oleg Taktarov in 1996 and Maurice Smith in December 1999) doesn't count for much these days.

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Hughes hasn't had a real fight in 17 months and even then Frank Trigg wan't a very good match up to test Hughes, especially against BJJ.

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Its been a long time since Hughes faced any sort of real challenge IMO. GSP was clearly outmatched in their fight, he's come a long way since then. Hughes went the distance against Charuto Verissimo at UFC 48 after losing to Penn, and Verissimo is certainly not a top-tier fighter. The last time we saw Hughes challenged in a fight was UFC 42 in the war with Sean Sherk, in my opinion, and that was April 2003.

There's no question in my mind. Hughes is a monster, he's one of the most dominant fighters that the UFC has ever seen. But he's not unbeatable, and I think Penn has all the tools necessary to take Hughes down again. Only question is, obviously, how is Penn's conditioning.

I think with the conditioning uncertainty I'd put Penn about 40%, 45% as I said, corresponding to a +150 to +122

I think if Penn's conditioning was a certainty, if he's optimal shape, I'd say Penn would, in reality easily be a 55% favorite over Hughes. But of course no book would need to hang that line, as -105 on Hughes would be more than sufficient to ensure a ton of action there, and of course you can't ever get 100% certainty about something like conditioning.

Lets also not forget that Hughes is about to turn 33 in October. Penn is five years younger. And has less than 1/3 as many fights. Maybe this isn't quite the tipping point for Hughes, but its certainly not far away. This is not a sport where you can

Does Penn win this fight 6/10? Maybe not. But does Hughes win 2/3 which is what the line currently suggests? Not if Penn is healthy and conditioned, not by a longshot, in my opinion

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Anyone know how Hughes has been training with? I'd like to get an idea on how much BJJ defense he has been working on.

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Hughes is a Miletich guy, which means he's training BJJ with Jeremey Horn. Pat Miletich is fighting in the the IFL on Saturday night as well (fighting the aforementioned Renzo Gracie, coincidentally), so its interesting to wonder if that pulled any resources from Hughes' training, or if both fighters training side-by-side in the same gym will have helped Hughes. Personally I assume the former over the latter, but not necessarily enough to swing this considerably: its just yet another small factor that goes in to everything. It also goes without saying that Hughes won't have Miletich in his corner Saturday night, and will likely have Jeremey Horn there I assume.


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One other thing.

I can certainly be wrong on all this. I'm not infallable. This is all handicapping, its all my opinion garnered from years of experience and tons of research. If Hughes comes out and dominates Penn start to finish, i.e. the Gracie / Hughes fight, then its obvious I was wrong in my handicapping. But if its a close fight, especially one that goes the distance, i.e. any result that shows that Penn was in fact not a 2:1 underdog, I think my handicapping will have been correct, and will have been on the right side of the fight, regardless of outcome.

As a fan, i'm actually looking forward to this fight more than any other in the UFC in the past two years for sure. As a gambler, this isn't the best fight to load up on, as we're talking about ultimately small edges here compared to something I'd consider a near lock like Ortiz/Shamrock II for example. But as a handicapper we're talking about finding +EV edges and exploiting them: and there's no question that Penn as a 2:1 underdog is +EV. And being in position to arbitrage all that Hughes -105 / Hughes -135 there's no question we're talking about +EV. only question for people following my recommendations on this will be: arbitrage it all, or take the freeroll on the upset? Or even take the freeroll on Hughes, given where people were able to grab the line earlier you could certaily freeroll that side. Regardless, I'll post all three options, but I can guarantee my recommendation will be to freeroll on the upset.

[Trencherman]

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Hughes is a Miletich guy, which means he's training BJJ with Jeremey Horn. Pat Miletich is fighting in the the IFL on Saturday night as well (fighting the aforementioned Renzo Gracie, coincidentally), so its interesting to wonder if that pulled any resources from Hughes' training, or if both fighters training side-by-side in the same gym will have helped Hughes. Personally I assume the former over the latter, but not necessarily enough to swing this considerably: its just yet another small factor that goes in to everything. It also goes without saying that Hughes won't have Miletich in his corner Saturday night, and will likely have Jeremey Horn there I assume.

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Hughes seemed positive about the training circumstances in his blog a few weeks ago, writing: "One of the good things is that Pat is fighting in the the IFL the same day that I do, so it's a good atmosphere in the gym. He's training real intense right now, so it gives me a good partner to work out with."

Performify, do you see Penn as a bigger threat to Hughes in this fight than GSP would have been?

[swope]

BJ PENN +175
MATT HUGHES -205

Im putting heavy action on Hughes, but a Penn upset is hardly impossible. As this is probably the only fight Ill bet on, I wanted to take this opportunity to point out a few things and offer a polite rebuttal to a lot of the arguments I see for a Penn victory:

Hughes is at the absolute top of his game, Im not going to waste time going on about Hughes, but instead Im going to point out some things about Penn:

Penn's last four fights have gone the distance.

Against Rodrigo Gracie, who arguably wasnt even a top 30 fighter, Penn goes to a decision.

Then he fights Ryoto Machida, which is without question one of the most boring fights in MMA history, largely because Penn realized almost immediately that Ryoto's size and power had him dominated, so he spent the entire fight refusing to engage. That Ryoto respected Hughes sub skills didnt help. The fight was a profound yawner and showed a trait in Penn that we have all come to recognize now; when he cant steamroll over someone physically and cant expect a fighter to make stupid mistakes, he shuts down.

Then he fought Renzo Gracie. This should have been a exibition in one sided ass whippery for Penn. Renzo was 40 years old and hadnt even faced a top ten opponent in years. Renzo WON THE FIRST ROUND, HANDILY. Penn snapped out of it and went on to win the rest of the rounds, taking a decision W, but at no point had Renzo in any serious trouble.

Then we have the GSP fight. GSP caught a thumb in his right eye in the opening salvo of round 1 that literally blinded him. He wasnt seeing double, he was seeing triple, through watering, swollen eyes. Penn spent the rest of the round kicking the [censored] out of a blind man, and won the round. And then he gassed (or had an emotional breakdown, depending on who you ask), and spent two rounds checking the clock and waiting for the judge to raise his hand. Which of course never happened because BJ Penn couldnt close the deal.

The lessons I take from all this; Penn isnt ready to face the number one welterweight. Penn is vulnerable to physical strength, and Hughes is the strongest. Penn's head space is notoriously sketchy, Hughes is the rock of friggin Gibraltar. And consider this; Penn wasnt even scheduled to fight Hughes, GSP dropped out with an injury. So on top of all the points I just made, Penn had to put down his hoagie and start training halfway through the period of time one would normally use to prepare for a title fight.

Its Hughes fight to lose. No one is better equipped to capitolize on a screw-up than Penn, but has anyone seen anything in Hughes to make them think hes going to come in and fumble? I havent.

David Loiseau +125
Mike Swick -145

This is kinda confusing to me; I should think Swick would be the dog here. Light action on The Crow sounds appropriate. More experience, physically stronger.. Swick is cool and all but I expect Swick to end up on his back and get scalped.

Jason Lambert +190
Rashad Evans -220

Jesus, whatever. This will be the fight where I catch up on my email. Evans will throw Lambert around and probably get the decision.

Joe Lauzon +395
Jens Pulver -495

No real value here, but I might stack up on Pulver just to make an easy buck if I max out my accounts on Hughes. Lauzon is dangerous on the ground and against a less experienced puncher I might say avoid this one, but Pulver has the experience to keep this standing, where he has the decisive advantage.

Gabe Reudiger +115
Melvin Guillard -135

Close line with good reason. If Melvin can keep it standing, the fight is his. If Reudiger can shoot and take Melvin down, he subs him. Flip a coin, seriously.

Roger Huerta -600
Jason Dent +475

The best Dent can hope for is to lose a JD and not get subbed. Huerta is a legit Miletech standout with tremendous physical strength and speed, Dent is another Muay Thai champ making the leap to MMA. They rarely do well at first, and this is definately a learning period for Dent.

Danny Abbadi +450
Jorge Gurgel -550

Whatever. Tae Kwon Do instructor Abbadi vs Jits instructor and MMA vet Gurgel. Dont blink. Gurgel by stupid crazy fast sub in the first.

David Lee +475
Tyson Griffin -600

Tyson is another gifted wrestler who decided to learn striking and get into MMA. Lee is actually a fairly good fighter with a solid jits base, but hes never faced anyone of Tyson's caliber. KO of the night material in the making.

[Performify]

Tip for a couple people in this thread: its really not necessary to quote an entire post (or three entire posts) to respond - just quote a specific sentance or paragraph if you want to specifically respond to a statement, otherwise just reply, we'll figure out what you meant [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Performify]

Pinnacle's lines are up, and are a little different:

Rashad Evans vs Jason Lambert
Rashad Evans -202
Jason Lambert +182

Jens Pulver vs Joe Lauzon
Jens Pulver -600
Joe Lauzon +540

Melvin Guillard vs Gabe Ruediger
Melvin Guillard -140
Gabe Ruediger +130

Mike Swick vs David Loiseau
Mike Swick -138
David Loiseau +128

Roger Huerta vs Jason Dent
Roger Huerta -600
Jason Dent +540

Jorge Gurgel vs Danny Abbadi
Jorge Gurgel -600
Danny Abbadi +540

Tyson Griffin vs David Lee
Tyson Griffin -600
David Lee +540

B.J. Penn vs Matt Hughes
B.J. Penn +192
Matt Hughes -212

[Performify]

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Then he fights Ryoto Machida, which is without question one of the most boring fights in MMA history, largely because Penn realized almost immediately that Ryoto's size and power had him dominated, so he spent the entire fight refusing to engage. That Ryoto respected Hughes sub skills didnt help. The fight was a profound yawner and showed a trait in Penn that we have all come to recognize now; when he cant steamroll over someone physically and cant expect a fighter to make stupid mistakes, he shuts down.

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I think we watched different Penn v Machida fights.

Other than that, I don't disagree with any of the rest of your points on Penn.

[rush66]

Performity,

Did you give a link for Penn v. Machida? Thanks.