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#32
09-18-2006, 04:32 PM
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Re: Preflop survey --- 5 hands ez quick
[ QUOTE ]
What is your range for villan? There isn't a hand he can have here EXCEPT for AA that we can't outflop by pairing a single card. [/ QUOTE ] Villain's range AQo+, JJ+. 
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#33
09-18-2006, 04:39 PM
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Re: Preflop survey --- 5 hands ez quick
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Villain's range AQo+, JJ+. [/ QUOTE ]If this is the case then spiking either an ace or a jack can give us the winning hand, which is what I meant by "high card strength". Since we are in position I think we'll be able to find out if we are ahead most of the time realitivly cheaply- we shouldn't lose more than one more bet here if we flop good and are behind. If we flop good and are ahead, though, this is going to be a fairly large pot with a minimal investment from us.
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#34
09-18-2006, 04:41 PM
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Re: Preflop survey --- 5 hands ez quick
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[ QUOTE ] We have equity odds preflop WITHOUT implied odds to call. [/ QUOTE ]In order to get any share of this pot we feel we are entitiled to based on immediate odds we are going to have to get to the river, which means dealing with a likely flop bet, or if not that a possible turn and/or river bet. Are we going to continue on past the flop without hitting either two pair or better or a strong draw? Certainly that isn't going to happen often enough to justify our investment. My point is that we can't just look at our share of the pot in terms of how often we expect this hand to win without the pot growing, because it WILL grow. Our immediate pot equity doesn't matter in light of future bets that will grow the pot bigger than what we are faced with PF. This is why we have to consider the implied odds, and in fact implied odds are more important than immediate odds. Since I don't believe we have the implied odds here, I think it's a fold. [/ QUOTE ] This is a well thought out post and is absolutely correct until..."Since I don't believe we have implied odds here, i think it's a fold". Now that statement is fine except you didn't back it up with any evidence. so let me help you. You'll flop a flush draw or a OESD, 20% of the time. In addition you'll hit a 2pair or flop trips about 3.5% of the time. Given this fact, you have equity on the flop to call a push from short stack, check-raise all-in the medium stack. And get very creative against the big stack...don't ask me what that means.
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#35
09-18-2006, 04:45 PM
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Re: Preflop survey --- 5 hands ez quick
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Villain's range AQo+, JJ+. [/ QUOTE ]If this is the case then spiking either an ace or a jack can give us the winning hand, which is what I meant by "high card strength". Since we are in position I think we'll be able to find out if we are ahead most of the time realitivly cheaply- we shouldn't lose more than one more bet here if we flop good and are behind. If we flop good and are ahead, though, this is going to be a fairly large pot with a minimal investment from us. [/ QUOTE ] When you spike the Ace and the villain leads, this is a clear fold. When you spike the Jack and the villain leads it's still a clear fold. Against this range. If villain has JJ-KK, he's not going to pay us off when an Ace falls. It's not even close. You have REVERSE IMPLIED ODDS when it comes to "high card strength." And your good position to the raiser is HORRIBLE relative position.
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#36
09-18-2006, 04:45 PM
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Re: Preflop survey --- 5 hands ez quick
[ QUOTE ]
You'll flop a flush draw or a OESD, 20% of the time. In addition you'll hit a 2pair or flop trips about 3.5% of the time. Given this fact, you have equity on the flop to call a push from short stack, check-raise all-in the medium stack. And get very creative against the big stack...don't ask me what that means. [/ QUOTE ]Bah, serves me right for not doing the actual math. Good discussion . . . I change my vote to "call" [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#37
09-18-2006, 04:50 PM
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Re: Preflop survey --- 5 hands ez quick
[ QUOTE ]
When you spike the Ace and the villain leads, this is a clear fold. When you spike the Jack and the villain leads it's still a clear fold. Against this range. If villain has JJ-KK, he's not going to pay us off when an Ace falls. [/ QUOTE ]If this is true, then you are correct. This might be a function of the low limits I play that this isn't the case. You don't believe that villan will c-bet this with KK or QQ if an A hits? Or that he will c-bet with AK if a J hits?
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#38
09-18-2006, 05:37 PM
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Re: Preflop survey --- 5 hands ez quick
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Put yourself in SB shoes, do you raise or limp with AJ in this situation, you limp. Well he raised so guess what hand he doesn't have. [/ QUOTE ] I think this means you think i was commenting on the first hand, instead of the second one (the 86o hand). I am curious what you think of my comments applied to the appropriate hand. (This is serious and not meant to be snippy...)
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