Lost on the Bubble (Yet Again)

[Uppercut]

Wow! Thanks for all the great responses. I especially like the point someone made about how the bubble in a 3 table S-n-G is a lot different than the bubble in a true MTT. I will keep that point in mind.

Someone else mentioned that if they knew all of the stack sizes, thy could better calculate whether my all-in was the correct move. Here they are, to the best of my recollection:

UTG ~14,000 (Raises 1,800)
UTG+1 ~1,800
Hero ~2,200 (Shoves)
Button ~13,500
SB ~3,000
BB ~6,000

I hope this helps.

[Sherman]

Okay, I've worked on this for a while and to be completely honest, I have never done an ICM calculation w/out using SNGPT, so I am hoping someone will make sure I actually did this right...

I already established that we are 59.9% Equity against his range if we call.

Here are the ICM calculations for the tournament before this hand begins:

Player Chips $EV
CO+2 14000 $93.33
CO+1 1800 $12.00
Hero 2200 $14.67
Button 13500 $90.00
SB 3000 $20.00
BB 6000 $40.00

So in the first secenario, hero calls and wins. Here are the new $EV amounts and chip counts:

Player Chips New Counts $EV
CO+2 11750 11750 $78.33
CO+1 1750 1750 $11.67
Hero 5550 5550 $37.00
Button 13450 13450 $89.67
SB 2650 2650 $17.67
BB 5350 5350 $35.67

So, Hero moves up to $37.00 in EV. A big jump from $14.67.

Second scenario, Hero calls and loses. Obviously his EV = $0. However, these would be the new $EV counts for everyone else. For this calculation, I subtracted $22 from each payout spot and added it to each player's total, since each is already guaranteed $22. Notice has this changes the $EVs.

Player Chips $EV
CO+2 17300 $90.35
CO+1 1750 $28.91
Button 13450 $75.14
SB 2650 $32.47
BB 5350 $43.14

Third scenario, Hero folds. In this instance, our Hero loses $0.34. We'll see how this compares to calling in a minute. First here are the EVs:

Player Chips New Counts $EV
CO+2 14000 15150 $101.00
CO+1 1800 1750 $11.67
Hero 2200 2150 $14.33
Button 13500 13450 $89.67
SB 3000 2650 $17.67
BB 6000 5350 $35.67

Okay, so if Hero folds, he loses $0.34 everytime. If he calls, and loses (44.1% of the time) he gets $0. If he calls and wins (55.9%), he increases his $EV from $14.67 to $37.00 (a difference of +$22.33). Multiply $22.33x.559 = $12.48. Add this to the $0 when he calls and loses and we still get $12.48.

So, we compare the $12.48 EV of calling to the $14.33 remaining EV our Hero has when he folds, and I think we see two things: 1) This was much closer than expected. 2) Most people were right in that this is a fold as a call costs the Hero about $1.85 in EV.

I hope I did this right and if I didn't I hope someone corrects me soon.

Shermn27

[Uppercut]

[ QUOTE ]
So, we compare the $12.48 EV of calling to the $14.33 remaining EV our Hero has when he folds, and I think we see two things: 1) This was much closer than expected. 2) Most people were right in that this is a fold as a call costs the Hero about $1.85 in EV.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for that analysis. I guess I should've folded, but its nice to know that it was at least a somewhat reasonable shove on my part.

[Sherman]

Just realized I made a mistake. 44.1% of the time Hero doesn't get $0, he actually loses what he already has in $EV, which is $14.67 (.441*14.67 = -6.47). We must add this number to the 55.9% of the time hero increases his $EV by $22.33 (.559*22.33 = 12.48, 12.48 + -6.47 = $6.01).

So, total $EV of calling is $6.01, when compared to $14.33 $EV remaining if we fold, we see that folding is a far better choice as calling costs hero $8.32.