Geniusness at the 215's

[raptor517]

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AAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH you people pick apart eveything i say. i gotta be shoot you all with my wide assortment of guns. holla

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fyp

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rofl. holla

[Daliman]

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I ran SNGPT on this hand, and the call versus two opponents with any 2 cards with me having 20 times more(600) is still a -$46 call. It won't run with 30 chips in Sb, but I'm thinking this call is upwards of -$80.

Can anyone run this properly?

P.S. Raptor said he doesn't mind this call, before finally backing off and saying it's terrible when I showed it was gigantically -EV.

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a, how did you run this? when i switch my SNGPT to call mode, it grays out everyone except the raiser & the caller and assumes that the pot is HU.

b, i'm not sure it's true that the call is more -EV with you having fewer chips as long as the SB has still forceed you all-in. if you had more chips, you'd take a whole lot more off the caller if the hand went

you >> caller >> raiser.

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If i have 30 chips, his chances of 3rd if he avoids confrontation likely under 1%, as my EV is $404

With 600 chips, my EV is $467, $39 of which comes from the short stack, so yeah, it costs him a TON more when i have less.

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But, for those times it's you >> caller >> raiser, if you triple up at his expense to 90 chips, your EV probably only goes up by, like, $1-3. Moreover his own EV goes up, since most of the chips are in the sidepot & he wins that. But if you double up to 1800 at his expense, his EV goes up by, like, $100! And since there is now no sidepot, his EV goes down.

Ok you know what, I'm just gonna do the ICM by hand & I'll post the results in a little bit. It'll be 600 chips for you vs. 30 chips for you, with the other two stacks unchanged, with any2 vs. any2 vs. 22 each time. Also PokerStove is slow so I'm just gonna say each hand has 33% equity even though 22 probably has a bit of an edge.

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Ah, ilya, missing the forest for the trees.

I'm just guessing, here, but I'm thinking if I triple up in this situation, my EV goes up by, oh, about $196 if 22 happens to lose to both of us, which will happen a bit over 25% of the time, i'm thinking.

You're somehow missing the fact that if I happen to triple up here, my chip stack stil means nothing, but if I were to triple up from 600, I have a playable stack now. 60o chips is worth something other than a spot at the table, 30 is just that.

As said before, I guesstimate it's about -$80, where the overchipped table having me at 600 here would be about -$46. Obviouslly, there is some confusion only as to HOW bad a call this is simply bad, terrible, horrendous, or abysmal. I go with abysmal, as he is giving up upwards of $80 worth of EV..

Quick update, I ran this with 15/30 blinds instead at 30 chips, and came up with -$96.14 or 605.89. Now, since the 250/500 level isn't in there, averaging fold value here for 22 between 200-400 and 300-600, which are skewed because i must have 600 chips, at 400 BB FV is 652 from 663, and 600 BB FV is 648 from 663. So that 500 in the BB is worth about $13 to the BB. If you subtract that from the $96.04, yer gonna get his call costing him about $83, if my calculation are anywhere near correct, (and even though i'm no math genius, i suspect they are). A 11.8% mistake, about as bad as it gets.

[tigerite]

It's quite obviously a fold, but..

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I'm just guessing, here, but I'm thinking if I triple up in this situation, my EV goes up by, oh, about $196 if 22 happens to lose to both of us, which will happen a bit over 25% of the time, i'm thinking.


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Well he would have to lose to both of you, AND have you beat the big stack though. Ok anyway it's a stupid call whatever way you look at it, and I guess I'll do the math later on.

[Daliman]

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It's quite obviously a fold, but..

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I'm just guessing, here, but I'm thinking if I triple up in this situation, my EV goes up by, oh, about $196 if 22 happens to lose to both of us, which will happen a bit over 25% of the time, i'm thinking.


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Well he would have to lose to both of you, AND have you beat the big stack though. Ok anyway it's a stupid call whatever way you look at it, and I guess I'll do the math later on.

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I understand that, and figured that was obvious. Just didn't specifically say that, oh well.

[tigerite]

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Also PokerStove is slow so I'm just gonna say each hand has 33% equity even though 22 probably has a bit of an edge.

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It's not so bad if you put the suits in. 30.656% equity for 22, 34.672% for both of the random hands.. so now we have that, we can continue..

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I'm going to use payout 0.75/0.25/0, I think it will make the maths easier.

If he folds:

50% 0.3865 (Dali loses random v random)
50% 0.3791 (Dali wins, and goes up to 90 chips)

So (0.5 * 0.3865 + 0.5 * 0.3791) = Fold $EV = 0.3828

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If he calls and beats both: He goes up to 5990 chips = 0.5495 $EV

So 0.30656 * 0.5495 = Call/Win $EV = 0.16845472

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If he calls and Dali takes the pot, but he beats Big Stack: 0.5426 $EV

0.34672 (Dali win) * 0.50334 (22 beats random hand of big stack) * 0.5426 = 0.09469349110848

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If he calls and Dali takes the pot, and he loses to Big Stack as well: 0 $EV

0.34672 (Dali win) * 0.49666 * 0 = 0

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If he calls and Big Stack takes the pot: 0.25 $EV

0.34672 (Big stack win) * 0.25 = 0.08668

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So that gives us..

0.16845472 (beats both) + 0.09469349110848 (beats big stack but not dali) + 0.08668 (big stack takes pot)

= 0.34982821110848

Remember Fold $EV was 0.3828 so he's losing 3.3% $EV by calling here.

Any mistakes in my maths that anyone can spot, please let me know..

[kevstreet]

Dali, are you the same Tera<u> </u>Bet that was in Gigabet's career summary post?

[Daliman]

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Dali, are you the same Tera<u> </u>Bet that was in Gigabet's career summary post?

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No.
Daliman has little patience for online MTT's

People that have contacted me regarding this:3

Anyways, if it WAS true, do you REALLY think gig would have won?

[tigerite]

Bah. Stop burying my maths, it took me about 10 minutes to come up with that lot (and an hour to run the PokerStove calcs).

[kevstreet]

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do you REALLY think gig would have won?

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Great point, just wanted to make sure.

Sorry Tigerite, all that math is hurting my head this morning. I needed some meaningless gossip sort of stuff regarding the whereabouts of Daliman back in the day.