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#31
08-04-2006, 03:32 PM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
Prob is with everone calling we have no clue what a blank turn is.... [/ QUOTE ] I really don't care what the turn card is. As long as it's not a 6, I'm raising and playing poker after that. I'd be happy to see an A or K come off b/c a turn raise would almost surely get rid of JT type hands behind me, and bb seems like the type whose probably good enough to call the turn raise with QQ-77 to defend against semi-bluff/free-showdown raises, but checkfold to a river bet. The fact that 4 people took the flop for a cap gives us a good shot at making bb lay down a better hand if a scare card hits. 
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#32
08-05-2006, 08:31 AM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think we have the best hand here a tonne. [/ QUOTE ] I think having the best hand now has little to do with the decision. [/ QUOTE ] Having the best hand now has a lot to do with the decision. The pot is already almost 9BB. Throwing away the best hand here would be a very large mistake. [/ QUOTE ] These sorts of statements mean nothing. Sure, if everyone flipped their cards up and showed you that you had the best hand, it would be a mistake to fold. Even then it wouldn't be massive. [/ QUOTE ] WTF? All I'm saying is that the equity you have in the pot makes a huge difference in whether you should call, fold or raise. Yes, I will be drawn out on in the pot a reasonable amount of the time. Yes, sometimes I'll be behind on the flop. All of these things will combine to make the initial 17.66:1 that I'm getting not quite as good as it appears, but saying -- like you did -- that having the best hand has little to do with the proper action -- is really bad and tending toward oversimplifying things in the wrong direction. The main thing is, in this hand, that without my hand having much of a prospect of being best (let's say only 10%), then folding would be clearly correct. But when my hand has a better chance of being best, then that absolutely needs to be factored into your decisionmaking. Rob [/ QUOTE ] If there wasn't a chance your hand was best, there wouldn't be a post. My statement may well have been an oversimplification but it is far from being incorrect. Having the best hand now, is only a part of equity. Equity is only a part of getting to showdown. The possibility of still having to fold the best hand on further streets before showdown is a huge factor. Reverse implied odds has a major impact on the cost of getting to showdown. All of these things add up to the likelyhood of making major mistakes on further streets. Mistakes that no level of skill will be able to avoid because of the uncertainty of the villians ranges and a further inability to define those ranges based on action. Coupled with your horrific relative position, this hand is an opportunity to spew your next thousand hands profit in one go. I respect you as a player Rob but if it's okay with you, I'll stick with my initial statement and say that having the best hand now still has little to do with the decision.
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#34
08-05-2006, 11:25 AM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
i really think you are underestimating how often 66 will win this pot. [/ QUOTE ] Entirely possible. But you win by capatilising on your opponent's mistakes. Against your hand (66), in a pot this big, the biggest mistake a villian can make against you in this hand, is fold. In order for you to capitalise on that mistake, you are going to have to invest more bets than your hand is worth. Whether it's playing fast hoping your hand is best or playing slow hoping for set value. IMO, neither proposition seems to have a better expectation than folding in the long run.
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#35
08-05-2006, 01:13 PM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think we have the best hand here a tonne. [/ QUOTE ] I think having the best hand now has little to do with the decision. [/ QUOTE ] Having the best hand now has a lot to do with the decision. The pot is already almost 9BB. Throwing away the best hand here would be a very large mistake. [/ QUOTE ] These sorts of statements mean nothing. Sure, if everyone flipped their cards up and showed you that you had the best hand, it would be a mistake to fold. Even then it wouldn't be massive. [/ QUOTE ] WTF? All I'm saying is that the equity you have in the pot makes a huge difference in whether you should call, fold or raise. Yes, I will be drawn out on in the pot a reasonable amount of the time. Yes, sometimes I'll be behind on the flop. All of these things will combine to make the initial 17.66:1 that I'm getting not quite as good as it appears, but saying -- like you did -- that having the best hand has little to do with the proper action -- is really bad and tending toward oversimplifying things in the wrong direction. The main thing is, in this hand, that without my hand having much of a prospect of being best (let's say only 10%), then folding would be clearly correct. But when my hand has a better chance of being best, then that absolutely needs to be factored into your decisionmaking. Rob [/ QUOTE ] If there wasn't a chance your hand was best, there wouldn't be a post. My statement may well have been an oversimplification but it is far from being incorrect. Having the best hand now, is only a part of equity. Equity is only a part of getting to showdown. The possibility of still having to fold the best hand on further streets before showdown is a huge factor. Reverse implied odds has a major impact on the cost of getting to showdown. All of these things add up to the likelyhood of making major mistakes on further streets. Mistakes that no level of skill will be able to avoid because of the uncertainty of the villians ranges and a further inability to define those ranges based on action. Coupled with your horrific relative position, this hand is an opportunity to spew your next thousand hands profit in one go. I respect you as a player Rob but if it's okay with you, I'll stick with my initial statement and say that having the best hand now still has little to do with the decision. [/ QUOTE ] I thought about this for a long while, and I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this hand. That's fine with me -- I don't think it's worth trying to convince you otherwise. There hasn't been much of a consensus on the hand in the forums (or amongst friends I've talked to), other than that folding is probably the worst choice, but I think the correct play here is to call. Raising opens me up to a 3bet which I have to call, and while the maniac may raise a wide range of hands here on the flop, that's actually a good thing for me; in general, the PF capper will 3bet the best of his hands, and will just call with the majority of his unpaired hands. I feel confident enough in this that I can call, see if the maniac raises the flop (or, god forbid, CO raises the flop), and play on from there. If it's 3bet on the flop I'm folding. If it's just called, I'm calling and leading most turn cards. Rob
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#36
08-05-2006, 05:38 PM
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Re: Flop decision
Rob,
How often do you think SB will 3bet an AJ-AK type hand? My instinct was that he would 3bet them often knowing that he could be ahead of the maniac and wants to clean up outs in a huge pot. I may be overestimating this, though. Surf
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#37
08-05-2006, 09:56 PM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
How often do you think SB will 3bet an AJ-AK type hand? My instinct was that he would 3bet them often knowing that he could be ahead of the maniac and wants to clean up outs in a huge pot. I may be overestimating this, though. [/ QUOTE ] If we could be confident that this wouldn't happen with any regularity, then calling the flop and folding to a 3bet becomes the obvious option. But in this pot, I don't see SB doing anything other than 3betting with any of his holdings.
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#38
08-13-2006, 02:39 PM
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Re: Flop decision
Why'd you raise with that lineup behind you? At first glance it doesn't seem so good with all the loosies behind you, but then again, the chances of the button three-betting to get rid of the blinds is very appealing, and it's easy to play out of position with him.
Is this sort of what you were thinking? 15/30 has a 2/3 structure? Ew! How much do you lose in the SB at 15/30 compared to 10/20? --- FWIW on the flop I think the best thing to do is to call down and hope no one hits or is ahead of you. I see no advantage in raising anywhere. I'd bail the river if the BB bet it. --Dave.
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