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#31
07-30-2006, 01:25 PM
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Re: Variance and dreading the eventual downswing
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ...he will invariably have to lose money to bring his winrate into line. This may come quickly, and it may come slowly, but if 4 is his true winrate, if he plays long enough it WILL happen. [/ QUOTE ] The problem with your post, FeltBelt, is that you are wrong. The OP does not have to lose money to "bring his winrate into line". If we take a 4PTBB/100 winner, what is his most likely winrate over the next 10k hands? It is 4PTBB/100. If the OP average 4PTBB/100 for the next year or so I guarantee his winrate will be "brought into line" and the entire time he will be winning money. No huge losses have to occur. In fact, those huge losses are unlikely to occur compared to the OP just winning 4PTBB/100 (assuming that is his true winrate). [/ QUOTE ] I feel the OP will definitely decline from his present position. Just his feeling that he has been lucky is enough evidence to support this. He has enough experience to be the judge. His true winrate is lower and therefore he will experience negative results, whether steep or gradual, until balanced. The OP should not fear the inevitable decline but should make a goal of improving his overall winrate. He should strive to minimize his losses during the negative periods and float the best he can until the next hand. 
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#33
07-30-2006, 03:16 PM
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Re: Variance and dreading the eventual downswing
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ...he will invariably have to lose money to bring his winrate into line. This may come quickly, and it may come slowly, but if 4 is his true winrate, if he plays long enough it WILL happen. [/ QUOTE ] The problem with your post, FeltBelt, is that you are wrong. The OP does not have to lose money to "bring his winrate into line". If we take a 4PTBB/100 winner, what is his most likely winrate over the next 10k hands? It is 4PTBB/100. If the OP average 4PTBB/100 for the next year or so I guarantee his winrate will be "brought into line" and the entire time he will be winning money. No huge losses have to occur. In fact, those huge losses are unlikely to occur compared to the OP just winning 4PTBB/100 (assuming that is his true winrate). [/ QUOTE ] I didn't say huge losses had to occur. You need to read my post again and understand what it says. Believe me, I perfectly understand the mathematical principles involved.
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#34
07-30-2006, 03:50 PM
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Re: Variance and dreading the eventual downswing
AJ,
Good post, what happened to the graph?
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#35
07-30-2006, 03:52 PM
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Re: Variance and dreading the eventual downswing
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] ...he will invariably have to lose money to bring his winrate into line. This may come quickly, and it may come slowly, but if 4 is his true winrate, if he plays long enough it WILL happen. [/ QUOTE ] The problem with your post, FeltBelt, is that you are wrong. The OP does not have to lose money to "bring his winrate into line". If we take a 4PTBB/100 winner, what is his most likely winrate over the next 10k hands? It is 4PTBB/100. If the OP average 4PTBB/100 for the next year or so I guarantee his winrate will be "brought into line" and the entire time he will be winning money. No huge losses have to occur. In fact, those huge losses are unlikely to occur compared to the OP just winning 4PTBB/100 (assuming that is his true winrate). [/ QUOTE ] I didn't say huge losses had to occur. You need to read my post again and understand what it says. Believe me, I perfectly understand the mathematical principles involved. [/ QUOTE ] I believe that you either don't understand the mathematical principles or that you accidentally wrote about these mathematical principles incorrectly. You said: [ QUOTE ] What the OP is saying, I believe, is roughly this: if you look at the graph of a winning player who has a solid idea of his true winrate, there will be periods of very high and very low variance, along with the regular dips and upswings one would expect to see in such a graph. The poster believes his true winrate to be about 4, yet he has recently been running at about 8 for a long period. If his winrate ends up staying at 4 over the life of his poker career, he will invariably have to lose money to bring his winrate into line. This may come quickly, and it may come slowly, but if 4 is his true winrate, if he plays long enough it WILL happen. [/ QUOTE ] It's right there, plain as day. You claim he has to lose money in order for his winrate to approach 4PTBB/100. This is false. Maybe you are trying to say that ups and downs are part of poker and it is impossible to play from now to the distant future without incurring a loss. If so, I agree. However, that's not what you wrote.
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#37
07-30-2006, 04:02 PM
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Re: Variance and dreading the eventual downswing
OP, just play your best poker, dont worry about results.
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#38
07-31-2006, 10:10 PM
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Re: Variance and dreading the eventual downswing
AJ Fenix, a little off topic, but how do you make those win loss/over total hands graphs? I've seen them all over 2+2 but haven't found anything showing how to make them. I'm guessing the somehow come from a poker tracker database?
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#39
08-01-2006, 03:05 AM
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Re: Variance and dreading the eventual downswing
keep playing because i have no life
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