SuperFish Returns

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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Another thing I disagree with is how you seem to think the river bet is "hopeless". I think it has one of the highest EV's of any streets as played, but the only reason that's so is because the pot was made so larger by the flop and turn bets. As I said in an earlier post when you checkraise and get it HU you're tying yourself to firing three barrels.

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I didnt actually think my river bet was hopeless. I was simply trying to convey my emotional state at the time. I understood that the river bet was a +EV play, and thats why I bet.

About my flop play, You are correct that when I checkraise this particular board, I am committing myself to firing 3 barrels if I get the pot HU. I am confortable with this reality, and in fact thats the main reason I checkraised the flop, to set up a profitable river bluff.

Im certain my play in this hand is debatable just as many plays are in this game. But I am also certain that if I had to do it over again, I would play my hand the same way every street regardless of the results. I do believe I made the right play every street, but I can certainly be wrong.

[SparkyDog]

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About my flop play, You are correct that when I checkraise this particular board, I am committing myself to firing 3 barrels if I get the pot HU. I am confortable with this reality, and in fact thats the main reason I checkraised the flop, to set up a profitable river bluff.

Im certain my play in this hand is debatable just as many plays are in this game. But I am also certain that if I had to do it over again, I would play my hand the same way every street regardless of the results. I do believe I made the right play every street, but I can certainly be wrong.

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You can't juice the pot now to make calls/bluffs later on. It's effective odds, since you have to consider your investment from the flop on if you know the flop action will tie you to a line on later streets. You can't just analyze each street at a time without considering how you got there.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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About my flop play, You are correct that when I checkraise this particular board, I am committing myself to firing 3 barrels if I get the pot HU. I am confortable with this reality, and in fact thats the main reason I checkraised the flop, to set up a profitable river bluff.

Im certain my play in this hand is debatable just as many plays are in this game. But I am also certain that if I had to do it over again, I would play my hand the same way every street regardless of the results. I do believe I made the right play every street, but I can certainly be wrong.

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You can't juice the pot now to make calls/bluffs later on. It's effective odds, since you have to consider your investment from the flop on if you know the flop action will tie you to a line on later streets. You can't just analyze each street at a time without considering how you got there.

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I have a flush draw, I have to invest atleast 1.5BBs anyways if I check and call down and miss, I am simply investing an extra small bet, to set up a profitable river bluff. I believe this investment is worth it. Plus sometimes I'll get lucky and win the pot unimproved on the turn. Weirder things have happened.

[DavidC]

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First, DavidC and Caddy mentioned the idea of folding preflop. Folding in this spot with anything suited is what ive done most of my career. So why did I call? Well its becuz of 2+2ers like True. Here was my thought process preflop: "Im bored and wanna play, True says calling with anything suited getting 7-1 is a +EV play

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Edit: my analysis here is pointing to playing from the SB, but I mention playing from the BB in passing.

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I'm not totally convinced. I think you're about 24:1 to hit a flush by the river. Now your chance of flopping 2pr++ is I think 40:1 on top of that.

Also, I don't think that 7-1 is what you need here: you need 7-1 with good implied odds. So when you're coming in from the SB it's better than when you're coming in from the SB (Sorry Kwaz, I take it back, your 83s hand was good PF because in a 2/3 structure your implied are even higher than in a 1/2 structure and I didn't take that into consideration). So if this is a ~+0.1 sb/hand play, then if you call, BB raises, and it's back to you at 7:1 again, fold this time, because now you're -EV with the implied odds having been cut in half. This is basically the one scenario in limit holdem where I call and fold to a single raise.

Leaning on the stove for a minute: AA-TT, AKS-AJS, AK-AQ is 5.3% of all hands dealt (and therefore how often the BB will have these hands). Now, what happens if someone raises. Well, it means that it basically costs you either 5.3% of half a SB, or that it costs you ~8% of a SB, depending on how you play it. So right away, if you hand was +0.1 sb/hand, you you're at +0.02 sb/hand... (but that doesn't 100% matter, since I pulled that figure directly out of my ass).

I don't know, I'm not particularly gifted at this kind of analysis. Ultimately I don't "feel" that 7:1 is enough. I'd prefer, out of the SB, basically 11:1, and out of the bb 15:1.

I have no idea where the actual break-even point is.

Finally, you've got two limpers in there and a random hand, who's going to pay you and how much when you hit your flush?

I support this by basically saying taht a four flush isn't a flush, so we shouldn't draw to a four-flush on the flop. If we do, then we should be drawing to backdoor straights and flushes much more often (i.e. drawing to a backdoor flush in a 8 sb pot because the chance of hitting a flush card on the turn is less than 8:1, etc. etc.).

[DavidC]

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I will now get to win all the pots where we both miss our draws.

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Well, maybe. How about this, though, if you call, what are the chances that utg will fold AJ? If you raise, what are the chances that he will fold AK? If you call, then check and call the turn and donk the river, will you get less FE than if you checkraised the flop and lead to the river? How much is the difference in FE (i.e. is it less or more than 1 SB?).

Also, this guy doesn't look too nuts post-flop via stats. 1.6 ag fro a 40/20 guy isn't crazy, he just likes to gambool it up pf and probably is willing to try to win a bit more than his fair share of pots. However, if he's indeed crazy, then why do you think you won't get bluffraised on the turn? What are you doing to preserve your FE in that spot?

[siegfriedandroy]

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The 9 and the 4 are two of the best cards for you turn/river. The combination (according to villian) means that almost any draw you had on the flop has now at least paired up. He will fold heaps of better unpaired hands on this river. And when villian plays the hand, as he has, I think he holds one of those hands more than 1:8. IMO, there is no other way to play this hand after you c/r the flop.

The only other way to play this hand has already been suggested: c/c, c/c, c/f.

If MP's WtSD stat is <39, I'd c/r the flop.

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do you really think someone w/ villain's stats is considering the implications of the 9 and 4? i sure dont think he is.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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I will now get to win all the pots where we both miss our draws.

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Well, maybe. How about this, though, if you call, what are the chances that utg will fold AJ? If you raise, what are the chances that he will fold AK? If you call, then check and call the turn and donk the river, will you get less FE than if you checkraised the flop and lead to the river? How much is the difference in FE (i.e. is it less or more than 1 SB?).

Also, this guy doesn't look too nuts post-flop via stats. 1.6 ag fro a 40/20 guy isn't crazy, he just likes to gambool it up pf and probably is willing to try to win a bit more than his fair share of pots. However, if he's indeed crazy, then why do you think you won't get bluffraised on the turn? What are you doing to preserve your FE in that spot?

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If I get raised on th turn, the hand is over, I'll just have to hope I hit the river. I think that calling down and donking the river has significantly less FE becuz our line just looks too suspicious. I think I have a better chance of getting A-high/K-high to fold if I take my line. Plus by checkraising the flop I also give myself a chance to get lucky if this guy somehow has a hand that will fold the turn. The fact that I will win this pot on the turn unimproved on rare occasions also has some value here.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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First, DavidC and Caddy mentioned the idea of folding preflop. Folding in this spot with anything suited is what ive done most of my career. So why did I call? Well its becuz of 2+2ers like True. Here was my thought process preflop: "Im bored and wanna play, True says calling with anything suited getting 7-1 is a +EV play

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Edit: my analysis here is pointing to playing from the SB, but I mention playing from the BB in passing.

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I'm not totally convinced. I think you're about 24:1 to hit a flush by the river. Now your chance of flopping 2pr++ is I think 40:1 on top of that.

Also, I don't think that 7-1 is what you need here: you need 7-1 with good implied odds. So when you're coming in from the SB it's better than when you're coming in from the SB (Sorry Kwaz, I take it back, your 83s hand was good PF because in a 2/3 structure your implied are even higher than in a 1/2 structure and I didn't take that into consideration). So if this is a ~+0.1 sb/hand play, then if you call, BB raises, and it's back to you at 7:1 again, fold this time, because now you're -EV with the implied odds having been cut in half. This is basically the one scenario in limit holdem where I call and fold to a single raise.

Leaning on the stove for a minute: AA-TT, AKS-AJS, AK-AQ is 5.3% of all hands dealt (and therefore how often the BB will have these hands). Now, what happens if someone raises. Well, it means that it basically costs you either 5.3% of half a SB, or that it costs you ~8% of a SB, depending on how you play it. So right away, if you hand was +0.1 sb/hand, you you're at +0.02 sb/hand... (but that doesn't 100% matter, since I pulled that figure directly out of my ass).

I don't know, I'm not particularly gifted at this kind of analysis. Ultimately I don't "feel" that 7:1 is enough. I'd prefer, out of the SB, basically 11:1, and out of the bb 15:1.

I have no idea where the actual break-even point is.

Finally, you've got two limpers in there and a random hand, who's going to pay you and how much when you hit your flush?

I support this by basically saying taht a four flush isn't a flush, so we shouldn't draw to a four-flush on the flop. If we do, then we should be drawing to backdoor straights and flushes much more often (i.e. drawing to a backdoor flush in a 8 sb pot because the chance of hitting a flush card on the turn is less than 8:1, etc. etc.).

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I dont know if 7-1 is good enough, Im just calling preflop cuz True says its +EV, and If I can find an excuse to play more hands, im gonna do it, cuz playing is more fun than folding. I will continue to call in the BB with suited trash getting 7-1 and see how it works out. Certainly other variables will be taken into account too, like the range of the PFR, my relative position to the PFR, the quality of my opponents and the nature of my hand itself.

[cfjr2]

quick and dirty odds calc

(11/50 + 11/49) * 10/48 = 2 flush cards flop
(.444) * 0.208 = .092
(6/50 + 6/49) * 5/48 = trips or 2 pair
(.122) * .104 = .012
would be nice to have some str8 possibilities too but so far we have about
.092 + .012 = .104 or ~9 to 1

I've left out simple pair of tens and bizzare flop/turns (AAAT) which might get you to 8.5 to 1.

If the cards were closer (to make a 3 card str8 poss) then you would have about 7 to 1.

So T5s = 9 to 1, T6s = 7 to 1.

[Caddy_4_Life]

ILP, I was going to make a lengthy post tonight when I had more time but DavidC covered most of my thoughts. cfjr2 added some valuable odds calculations. I'm still not sold on the pf call.

I'm going to look at it again when I get back because you've touched on a lot of complex topics with this hand.

-Caddy