handling a flop donk with mid pair + CC OTB

[Scotty.]

I don't think our implied odds are that good if we hit, as Button won't usually call two cold on the turn and the flop donker also gives up a fair amount on the turn, especially if an A is what hits. We also have to figure in the times Button will raise behind us which cuts down our odds as well.

I don't think we can give ourself the full 5 outs either, as one of the donkers holdings, 45 kills our A outs. Also, if thats the case, we are losing another 2 bets on the turn when he 3-bets us. I don't know how much weight can be given to this, but also consider Ax is a big part of a preflop coldcaller's range so an A is in his hand a lot of the time.

Finally, if we are actually ahead, which is a somewhat reasonable possibility, by simply calling we are giving Button correct odds to call with his 6 outer.

[The Funky Llama]

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I don't think our implied odds are that good if we hit, as Button won't usually call two cold on the turn and the flop donker also gives up a fair amount on the turn, especially if an A is what hits.

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I dont think the flop donker will give up that often on the turn. If you improve to two pair or trips, you almost always get at least one more BB and probably more than that on average. People do not fold pairs in this game. I agree that our implied odds aren't fantastic or anything, but they are definitely positive as opposed to negative (reverse implied odds).

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We also have to figure in the times Button will raise behind us which cuts down our odds as well.

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Sure, but then this increases our implied odds.

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I don't think we can give ourself the full 5 outs either, as one of the donkers holdings, 45 kills our A outs.

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What percentage of his hand range do you think 45 is? Its virtually never KK,22,33 or AK. Against almost all of his range we have 5 outs. I can't imagine giving us less than like 4.25 outs on average.

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also consider Ax is a big part of a preflop coldcaller's range so an A is in his hand a lot of the time.

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You are saying that we have button reverse dominated a lot? This seems good to me. I've never said calling is better than raising, but if I were to make an argument for calling, this would be one of the main points (along with the fact that a large percentage of button's range isn't peeling for one bet on a K32 board...j9 for example).

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Finally, if we are actually ahead, which is a somewhat reasonable possibility, by simply calling we are giving Button correct odds to call with his 6 outer

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Again, I never said calling was better than raising. However button does not have 6 outs on average. As you said yourself, he will often be reverse dominated or have overlapping outs with BB. And as I said earlier, most people aren't peeling with JT here. Protection isn't necessary if he is going to fold anyway.

More possible arguments for calling rather than raising:

1) you'll keep BB bluffing and lots of guys fire 3 barrels
2) you could be behind both these guys
3) calling will make it less likely you fold a winner
4) If you are 3bet you will probably have to see the river so you are not always saving money by raising the flop

Overall, I like raising more because of the chances of getting button to fold a hand like 55 or a hand like Q9s with backdoor flush draw which he might not fold. Also, we will be able to showdown for cheaper on average. However I think it is a closer than most 2+2ers would think.

I still can't see how you can fold. Sure you *might* be able to discount our outs enough to make peeling incorrect. HOwever, you said yourslef that there is "reasonable possibility" that we are ahead. When we combine this with our outs if behind, how can a fold possibly be correct?

[Scotty.]

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I still can't see how you can fold. Sure you *might* be able to discount our outs enough to make peeling incorrect. HOwever, you said yourslef that there is "reasonable possibility" that we are ahead. When we combine this with our outs if behind, how can a fold possibly be correct?

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What it boils down to is I want to fold basically because we probably aren't ahead very often, we are playing against what seems to be two looser players who have anywhere from 3 to 13 outs against us each, virtually every card is a scare card, and it is going to cost us a fair amount of bets to see a showdown.

I think these factors, along with the possibility getting raised behind us or giving cheap cards to a PF coldcaller makes a call look like a pretty terrible idea. I don't think raising is bad, and I said before it is very close between a raise and a fold for me.

[kiddo]

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What it boils down to is I want to fold basically because we probably aren't ahead very often

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How would you play if u were BB here?

If I was BB, I would bet any pair, hoping to get it headsup against raisers overcard(s). And checkraise a really strong hand since I want button to call twice on flop. Im not sure how I would do if I flopped Ks, it would depend on how good/bad the others are.

[Scotty.]

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What it boils down to is I want to fold basically because we probably aren't ahead very often

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How would you play if u were BB here?

If I was BB, I would bet any pair, hoping to get it headsup against raisers overcard(s). And checkraise a really strong hand since I want button to call twice on flop. Im not sure how I would do if I flopped Ks, it would depend on how good/bad the others are.

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Given we have no reads on our opponent, at 10/20 until proven otherwise, I would assume he is a poor player who really isn't thinking all that much about why he would make which plays. Or if he is thinking about it, his rationale is not really similar to what we would come up with.

It's very tough to come up with a range for an unknown donker, because I have seen essentially everything at one point or another. I would weight it strongly towards pocket pairs (any 22-AA), 45, and a K. I really don't have a large enough sample size or an observant enough memory to know how much weighting to give to those as opposed to air, so I take a barely educated guess and say "probably not going to be air enough".