+EV or Gamboool??

[Isura]

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Isura,
A solid player will just call in that spot because they are looking for someone like AJ with AK/JJ or something to try and make a squeezearoo play.

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Yes, it is a good trap. But whenever I have AK, I'm like "OMG I have AK, they can't have AA-KK, I'm going to get the money in now!"

[Big_Jim]

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it also includes only hands that went to Showdown or were not mucked by the winner.

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Ignoring the hands where we take it down PF is a huge mistake.

[Andrew Karpinski]

This is such an easy push.

[DMBFan23]

obligatory results request...

[ajmargarine]

Button says, "well, you just screwed me buddy, thanks alot"

...and then he folded what he said was KQ. Shortie had AJo and my hand held up.

[Isura]

I love how people think KQ is a monster in this spot. NH.

[Haiku]

I think this is a nice play, even though you don't have a read. His flat call means you're very likely ahead (he's afraid of pushing to isolate in case one of the three yet to act has a monster) or very far behind. The latter case would imply that in addition to having a huge hand (unlikely given combinations of KK/AA versus any two paint or big ace) he's a player thinking hard enough to realize that another thinking player (AJ) might come over the top of him trying to push him out. I like it.

[ajmargarine]

This hand actually got me thinking that pushing with something like 98s or 87s might be pretty cool here.

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[big dummy]

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And, again, I found that the raiser has AA /KK 15% of the time and the caller has it 24%. This makes you a 75-90% dog 1/3rd of the time.


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There's a KEY piece of the equation that your general search is ignoring: the original pusher was a short stack who was on tilt, and the caller KNOWS that the short stack was on tilt. That REALLY changes the equation around, and it's the basis for the play AJ made. Overall population averages can go out the window when you've got more information to play with, which we do here. This play wasn't made based on how frequently AKo stands up against a random all-in with a caller; it was made based on how frequently AKo stands up against THIS all-in with THIS caller.

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I agree that your reads, if correct, make it more likely that you aren't facing AA or KK here. However, I was surprised to find out how often "tilting" small stacks were raising with the Goods - cashing in on their image.

There is, however, one interesting counter-point. The average PF raise with AA was $11, with KK it was $17. All the other PPs are in the $6-7 region. The Ax raises are in the $4-6 range. This may support the obvious intuitive observation that smaller (probably "tilting") stacks are more likely to push with sub-premium hands than are large stacks.

Given that, I'm still not convinced that it's +EV.

[Jouster777]

Does he need a monster?

KQ sucks to call even a tilting AI...but if you know someone's on a pretty obvious tilt, what hands do you call with here?

Edit: Assuming with and without someone (esp. AJ) yet to act.