$60 very early push from a known solid player

[Confused1]

Well, good. That's why I do it.

but "I" still throw Jacks across the room here (AND QQ), not even a close call.

[bluefeet]

Joining in late...it looks like you've guys have beaten this up pretty good. But dude, you are missing so much value doing this. I get the examples you just posted -- I really do. The over raise/reraise is one thing. OPEN pushing this into the blinds is just silly.

The thing to realize is, is that the very hands you're praying will call you (as you rub your hands together waiting like Mr.Burns from the Simpsons [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) - simply aren't going to be there.

Much more value is to be gained by getting the random donk calls of your standard raise.

[Confused1]

It may very well be 'silly', but I still do it (as do other people in this situation), therefore calling your stack off with JJ is even 'sillier'.

If you have a skill edge, why 'gamble' on it this early in the tourney for such an unknown quanitity?

[bluefeet]

Because it is easily profitable in most cases. Understanding/Accepting that some will take your line (though I personally can't recall seeing it) - far more often found are the hands previously described.

[Eagles]

[ QUOTE ]
It may very well be 'silly', but I still do it (as do other people in this situation), therefore calling your stack off with JJ is even 'sillier'.

If you have a skill edge, why 'gamble' on it this early in the tourney for such an unknown quanitity?

[/ QUOTE ]
Honestly folding here will lose you money in the long run it's that simple you should never ever fold in this spot.

[EricW]

Would you guys stop arguing with Confused1? He's obviously right!




(Stop teaching the donator lol!)

[Confused1]

You mind sharing your stars name? I'd love to check me poker tracker and see how much I've donated to you. After reading some of your posts, if it's any, I'll quit.

[Confused1]

OK, I give. I'm obviously outclassed here...

nh gg

[Melchiades]

I think the point everyone is trying to make is that even though you will sometimes openpush AA, the 10 000 other players that will never have KK/AA here makes up for it.

In my experience this is 88-JJ 30% of the time, AK 60% of the time and QQ 10% of the time.

I guess if Confused1 is at your table make it AK 59% and AA/KK 1%.

[Confused1]

I get what they are saying, but I disagree with it. There are three people in this thread alone that say it's common for them to open push AA early. I, myself, would NEVER open push anything in your 30% range here, but I'm sure some people do.

I'm not even trying to argue that AA push is a good move for them to make, but I do know that I do it and anybody here that plays Stars $27 and $55's has probably had me at the table (I play a huge number of them, I'd lay odds that it's more than the experts that are telling me how people play on these).

BUT, EVEN if your numbers were spot on, let's look at them....

The question was 'should I call with JJ, when somebody open pushes the blinds early in a sng'.

If you are right, then you'll win:
vs. 88, 99, & TT about 80% of the time
vs AK about 55% of the time
vs QQ about 18% of the time

So, you call here and you are (almost) doubled about
(.8*.75*.3)+(.55*.6)+(.18*.1)= .18 + .33 + .018 = 54.8% of the time

and you are BROKE/crippled
(.18*.75*.3)+(.43*.6)+(.8*.1) = .04 + .26 + .08 = 38% of the time

Now, I don't even agree with the premise that this is hardly ever AA or KK and I STILL wouldn't call, given your range, to either double 54% of the time or bust 38% of the time, early in a sng. Because doubling at this stage doesn't 'help' win money as much as you might think, but busting sure hurts it. If this was a cash game, then I'd have to make that +EV move (using your range, which I dispute, calling is a +200T$ move).

In 'my' sng theory, 1:1 isn't enough pot odds to risk ruin (busting in 9th) 38% of the time. My 'skill' will overcome the lost 200T$ later, but I have to have some bullets. Later, this guys range may be 27o and up, and you'll be getting more than 1:1 to call, it's easy - but I don't advocate it now.