4 large bets

[SilentNoise]

jordiepop: probably not. but im assuming Isura doesn't just want to win at 200nl, he wants to be one of the bigget winners.

Im not really in the position to be giving YOU advice to be honest, but I'll say what I think on the whole, and maybe somebody can spot some problems with my thought process.

Hand 1: I dont mind the squeeze preflop. If his ATS is high then it seems like a good squeeze spot. However if hes a 2p2 type player, I dont think hes ever going to call your 3bet OOP with "big cards". I think he 4bets AK for sure especially OOP, AQ probably 4bets maybe calls aswell though. I dont think AJ or less calls your 3bet OOP. If hes half decent he knows thats a recipe for disaster.

So when he calls your 3bet OOP i put him on some strong suited connectors like 56s->TJs. If he knows you are capable of 3betting light, I assume he isn't going to be calling with small pairs like 22-66 since its clear implied odds aren't there for hitting sets. So i think he is likely to call preflop with 77-QQ. JJ/QQ might fold.

But I think of all the hands he calls preflop (22-66; 56s->TJs) he isnt folding many of them. I dont think he even folds two pair on this board. So because i dont think hes folding alot of his "3bet CC OOP" range to a flop cbet, i think i generally just check the flop, and give up on the turn as played.


Hand 2: You said hes 35/25 or whatever, so isn't it a good spot to 3bet preflop? I dont mind flat calling with AQ vs UTG raisers who you think you dont have much fold equity against postflop. Then you went on to say hes not that good, which would suggest hes not good enough to fold AJ/overpair here. Against a good tight player, it must look as if you called preflop with a pocket pair and now are fast playing your set...so against a good player i dont mind this play. But since you said hes not good then I imagine hes not folding much. I c/f the flop, but if you are going to raise..i give up on the turn.

I was thinking though, supposing you only made this play with air lets say 1% of the time, and the rest of the time you either have a bigdraw/set..does that mean if he calls with one pair hands hes making a mistake against your range so you win money?


Hand 3: I dont really like it. What hand does he call a 3bet with OOP and then check/call this flop? K9? Dont think so..I think the only thing you are folding out by your river push is a Kx type hand (maybe 99). But what Kx type hands are calling your 3bet OOP and then c/c this flop though? I cant see KQ or KJ and stuff folding. I dont mind the flop cbet to fold out weak suited connectors and small pocket pairs, and possibly second pair type hands like AJ/AT (if he somehow called pf with those hands)...but i give up on the river almost always.

Hand 4: I dont mind triple barreling, but i prefer betting like 80$ or so instead.

[2Paul2]

[ QUOTE ]
You're saying obvious to a lot of stuff that really isn't. For example, if he folds for 200 95% but only folds for 100 75%, 200 is much much better. The ev is $31 vs $61, which is absolutely huge. And in my experience, that is a realistic estimation of FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ye I think he will call up to pot w/ 7x vry often in wich case hes going to call 100 a decent amount of the time.

200 however vry rarely gets called by anything but a weirdly played set. I think river is a check for sure if you not makeing a decent overbet.

Paul

[Nielsio]

1. Blood everywhere.

2. This probably works a decent portion of the time.

3. First I hated it, then I kinda liked it (because he seems weak), now I'm not sure because you're not repping anything.

4. First I hated it, but now I think this can work often as well, against the right opponent. But then again, it's a ridiculous overbet and you are risking a TON to win a little. So villain only has to snap you off like 15% of the time (complete guestimate) to book a profit, and your standard 1/2 villain WILL do that.

[thedustbustr]

hand 1, loose villain.. he has two pair and you have AA, he is insta calling

[thedustbustr]

hand 2, if your intent is to bluff the turn then raise more on the flop so the stack sizes line up. i dont mind, looks like a jack or TT- or a flush draw, all of which probably fold.

[thedustbustr]

hand 4 seems foolishly sized, i dont think there is a difference in FE between pot and shove. bluff is fine though if you aren't too active at the table (though these hands suggest that you are). your image is crucial here

[thedustbustr]

hand 3 i bet you got looked up, that board hit his range very hard. wtf do u have, AQ?

[thedustbustr]

[ QUOTE ]
About hand 1, isn't his range more weighted towards big cards when he calls PF? And its not like they will always call 2 barrels with 3rd pair in this spot. sometimes we improve as well. Flop bet is close in 1 imo. And I do think he will sometimes fold a better hand on flop. Our hand is much different than A9 here imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think once he peels the flop his hand range is much more weighted to hands that just paired (scs), JJ-66. all reasonable scs are either two pair or a straight. TT-66 isn't folding because they beat AA. how could he possibly peel flop with something like ak?

...hope he had JJ?

[mertzo]

I would look up hand 1 pretty light if i hadnt seen you squeese before, since i wouldnt put the straightcards in your range.

[eigenvalue]

[ QUOTE ]
so do i have to pull this kind of stuff to win at 200nl??

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you have to if you play at Stars. If Isura tells us she is successful with that stuff, we have to believe her. But if you don't play at Stars, be careful. I know one room where this kind of stuff might work, too, but I know at least to rooms where you are dead if you play that way.