$114 - AQ from BB hits AAx flop - Page 4

durron597 · #31 06-14-2007, 04:00 PM

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I think this in part depends on how the villian views your play. if hes a good player, and knows your a good player, and knows that you know hes a good player then shouldn't it be safe to assume that when you call his flop bet that he knows you have an A. After all, who in their right mind would call OOP with a 5 when an early position limper leads into 4 players.

i would think his range from utg+1 would be weighed more heavilty towards set mining than an Ace. I wouldn't usually expect a decent player at this level to be limping in less than an AJ, maybe AT. But if he had one of these aces i think he would probably bet 3/4 pot on the river instead of overbet shoving. the overbet shove to me looks like he has 55 and is hoping you aren't able to lay down trips because nobody can ever fold trips, right?

I think you can avoid this tough river decision by raising the turn to 550ish and I wouldn't expect him to come back over the top with less than AQ but he would probably call with AJ and AT.

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best post in the thread

Klinzmann · #32 06-14-2007, 04:13 PM

I folded on the river so I can't tell you what he had. I was planning on calling any reasonable bet on the river, a push was not what I expected. My guess is he had AK, AQ, AJ or a set.

durron597 · #33 06-14-2007, 04:14 PM

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I folded on the river so I can't tell you what he had. I was planning on calling any reasonable bet on the river, a push was not what I expected. My guess is he had AK, AQ, AJ or a set.

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unlikely limp utg+1 with AK... unlikely bet flop with any set that isn't 55... there's 600 in the pot and you have to call 1200 which means you only have to win 2/5 times which you will with AJ in his range

Ditch Digger · #34 06-14-2007, 04:21 PM

Please lead the flop.

AMT · #35 06-14-2007, 04:24 PM

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Please lead the flop.

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What are you, a shootout massa?!?! (nh btw)

amlove,

lol.

klinzmann,
its closer than you think.

amlove · #36 06-14-2007, 04:53 PM

I think I agree with klinzmanns range of AK,AQ,AJ,boat but in my expereience it seems boat is overshoved on the river here more often than trips. Also, even if it is a closer call than we think, why not pass up a marginal situation. I think I have more equity being alive in 5 sngs with 1200 chips than 2 sngs with 3000 chips.

suzzer99 · #37 06-14-2007, 05:30 PM

I don't see how you can lay that down w/o a stronger read that he really is very good at SNGs. I mean pretty much you're putting him on 55 or maybe a suited ace that boated up. A lot of times you think players are good but they turn out to be goofballs. I think curiosity would get the better of me on the river.

Definitely he thinks he's good and isn't trying to push you off an ace. But he could easily have a weaker suited ace or have limped KK or something.

ryanghall · #38 06-14-2007, 08:45 PM

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Please lead the flop.

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Exactly. If he has an ace, great you stack him. If he doesn't, you're sure not getting much else out of him so why give a PP of some sort a free shot at stacking you?

As played, definitely call river.

skreemer7 · #39 06-14-2007, 09:42 PM

IMHO, it's most likely villain has 55, and second most likely he has AQ. Yes, I know Hero is holding a Q. If the villain is decent at a 114, I dont think he's limping AT from early position. This leaves him with a range of AJ, AQ, AK, and 55. I don't personally know any regs that limp AK in ep at this blind level, so I'd like to rule out AK as very likely. Also, I don't think villain would splash all his chips in on the river against a know decent player (assumption) who had the chance at a free flop and is check calling his way to the river. So that leaves us with AQ and 55. The way it went down, it seems like AQ is very likely to be played in such a manner. Looking at 55, getting paid with a flopped boat when 2 A's show on the flop isn't the easiest thing to do. Considering that, it might be reasonable for villain to toss some chips at the flop in hopes of getting an A or even a mid-pocket to play with him. I'd like to here any thoughts on these thoughts if u have them.

LB_001 · #40 06-15-2007, 01:14 AM

If villain is good I'd say this is an automatic fold. It's so easy to put you on an ace here, he's not bluffing he's trying to get paid off. No chance he 2x overbets the pot on the river with AJ or even AQ imo, he's likely to fold out what he beats and get called when behind. 55 or 66 almost always