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#31
10-26-2007, 11:47 PM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
This never (rarely) checks through in my games and that seems pretty independent of stakes. Maybe online and live is different here [/ QUOTE ] hmmm, sounds like it. I kinda figured a fish is a fish, but I guess live limpers do tend to check the flop with all types of stuff (including stuff they wanna "trap" with lol) 
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#32
10-27-2007, 05:38 AM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
Without any prior knowledge of players and game conditions, Id check online and bet live. Online, no one ever lets the flop get checked through, but live it happens frequently. Its not like giving a free card is a huge mistake because the pot is small, but I feel like players betting range and calling range are pretty similar live, but online players betting range is much much wider. [/ QUOTE ] nina, we play the same stakes on ftp, but i feel that a flop getting checked through is not such a rarity. i don't have any hard data, but i would guesstimate that with two limpers and a bb a flop will get checked through 15-20% of the time at $5/$10. is your estimate much lower?
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#34
10-27-2007, 12:53 PM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
I'm responding as a "good live player". CHECK FOLD THE FLOP!!! On to the next hand. Let me know if you want an explanation. [/ QUOTE ] they got this program called pokerstove... you might want to check it out cuz you will be suprised
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#36
10-27-2007, 01:57 PM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Without any prior knowledge of players and game conditions, Id check online and bet live. Online, no one ever lets the flop get checked through, but live it happens frequently. Its not like giving a free card is a huge mistake because the pot is small, but I feel like players betting range and calling range are pretty similar live, but online players betting range is much much wider. [/ QUOTE ] nina, we play the same stakes on ftp, but i feel that a flop getting checked through is not such a rarity. i don't have any hard data, but i would guesstimate that with two limpers and a bb a flop will get checked through 15-20% of the time at $5/$10. is your estimate much lower? [/ QUOTE ] 10-20% sounds about right to me. The point is that I feel their betting range is much wider than their calling range.
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#37
10-27-2007, 02:09 PM
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Re: Flop decision
vmacosta,
I saw this thread from your crosspost. The thing I don't understand is that you keep referring to the opposition as "loose passives" and wanted live players to respond based on experience dealing with those players. I am confused because one of the villians in the hand is an extreme LAG. If the 48/23/2.5 number is filtered for 4-6 hands we are far from loose passive. As far as the hand, I appreciate the vote of confidence but unfortunately the answer is "it depends." My default play is to bet out on this flop. I am very happy to just win it right now. There are too many turn cards that can kill my hand or make it tough to continue in the face of aggression and possibly lead to me folding the best hand. I really don't like a checkraise here if UTG bets and LP calls. Many players get too spazzy when checkraised and play back at us. This is one of the reasons for fastplays with our strong hands. Also, we don't really want to build and play a big pot when by doing so we can no longer get them to make FTOP mistakes. It is hard to estimate precisely but the number of combined outs to beat us when we are ahead is significant and when the flop goes check, UTG bet, LP call, we are behind a fair amount. When I say "it depends" here are a few of the things I think about. 1. Why is a 48/23 guy limping UTG 5 handed? Does he limp with monsters? What does he limp with? Does he give up very easy if he misses the flop? Does he autobet when checked to? 2. Same as above for the LP player. Also, does he raise top pair on the flop? Is he willing to raise on a draw? Will he take any pair to showdown? 3. What is going on in the metagame and how is my image? Have I been leading a lot of flops with strong hands or bluffs?
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#38
10-27-2007, 02:10 PM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm responding as a "good live player". CHECK FOLD THE FLOP!!! On to the next hand. Let me know if you want an explanation. [/ QUOTE ] coach me [/ QUOTE ] I'll edit slightly. I'd check the flop. If utg bets and button calls, I'd prolly fold. It has to do with rev. imp. odds and position and small pot. Not worth getting involved. If UTG checked and button bet, I'd raise depending on reads. (How aggro, how he views me, etc.). But playing on is not automatic IMO. My hand is vulnerable if best at the moment, my position sucks, the pot is small. I can wait for a better opportunity to invest. I don't mind letting this one go. I would consider betting out against tight passives however. As Op played the hand, I'd have to call and reevaluate on turn. Now I'd have to play on with some favorable turn cards.
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#39
10-29-2007, 10:47 AM
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Re: Flop decision
Why is a check raise even being discussed here? Who are we expecting to bet? If the LAG bets are we really that comfortable check raising the field with our second pair ok kicker? If he checks and some passive player bets we should just fold.
Just bet it and call down if heads up with the LAG unless the board gets really bad.
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#40
10-29-2007, 01:12 PM
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Re: Flop decision
FOLD.
You're easily up against a J here.You're drawing to 5 outs MAYBE and 3 if someone is on the [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush draw. 12 to 1 odds to hit 3 outs? Hmm. 6% chance on the turn to hit a non-[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q or 7? Even getting 12 to 1, you're about 16 to 1 to hit.
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