Phil Stacey and Vote For the Worst

[Sixth_Rule]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah - Simon made it clear on Oprah that his top 2 right now are Melinda and Jordin, with Blake in 3rd (we knew this anyway). He does not like Phil and will give him negative feedback unless he has a stellar performance.

You say that good comments from Simon will push his value up to anywhere from 5-8 to 7-10 or so. But then you mark the likelihood that Simon gives feedback at <10% (which I agree with). In other words, you're giving about a 90% chance that his value won't go up, so taking the best case scenario (7-10), your EV of buying a $3 contract right now is:

10% * (7-3) - 90% (0-3) = -$2.30

This assumes poor comments move Phil's sell price from $1 to $0. FWIW, I think there is less than a 10% chance that his sell price rises to $7. -EV proposition no matter how you slice it, unless you think there's a good chance he puts together a string of good performances that sets him up as one of the favorites (and I'd give this a 1-2% chance of happening given the history of mediocre performances we've seen from him).

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Ok I am going to try to do my first in-depth analysis so please point out my flaws if you see them. First I think that the assumption that Simon dislikes Phil is not valid. I think Simon likes talent (singing + personality + stage + presence) and good performances get good comments. Now Phil had all 3 of these last week and got a comment that meant ‘it was good but may have been too little too late’.

I think the fact that it was good enough to get him to at least 4th of 7 (he was probably 3rd but it could have even been higher). The fact that he beat Blake is a big deal as he was the top male vote getter.

I think the fact that he was constantly barely staying alive hurts him but not as much as people think. He is still in this competition because he gave 2 performances (sting and country) which were really good. His other performances have not been bad.

I also think that Blake is way over rated, I have an untrained ear but I don’t remember the last time I heard him sing and thought he sounded professional.

Back to Simon, I feel Simon to be an unbiased person. He will now realize that Phil has at least some following that may have grown last week. If Phil gives a good performance I believe the comment will go along the line of “you are really starting to show us something”

Now to the comment that Phil is to stupid to put a country spin on his songs, that is ridiculous. Last week he sounded good, felt good and got good results (comments and votes). He actually made the comment that this is what he felt comfortable singing. It is human nature to do what feels good and gives good results so I think he could come up with a good to great performance.

So here is how I break it down

10 % great Phil performance, + a couple more to follow 15-18 gets knocked out 3rd
20% chance of him just taking Blake’s spot and on WSEX because he stays out of the bottom 3 and and Blake doesn’t 7 - 10
10% chance of him having a good but not great performance but having a good fan base stick by him 3- 5
35% chance of him staying the same 1-3 and chris or lakisha getting knocked out
25% chance of him getting knocked out

.1 * (15-3) + .2 (7-3) + .1(3 – 3) + .35 ( 1 - 3) + .25 (0 -3)
1.2 + 0. 8 – 0.7 – 0.75 = +. 55

[TheVegan]

Here are my thoughts on the remaining 6 in the order I think they will finish:

1)Melinda: She has one of the two best voices in the competition and I think she has a warm personality. IMNSHO
she is without question the one to beat.

2)Lakisha: She has one of the two best voices in the competition but I think her personality is almost non existant. I think the fans don't love her but that can change with a great performance. She IMSHO is the one that can beat Melinda. She is still the best 9-1 you will ever find!

3)Jordan: She has a very good voice but she is wildly inconsistant. Plus I think she is very likeable. She could win but I don't think that is likely.

If anyone below this line wins Idol I will be shocked!!
__________________________________________________ _____
4)Blake: Is a good entertainer. He has his beatbox skills and has a good stage presence. That being said, he can't sing his way out of a paper bag.
He will not win.

5)Phil: Phil has had a few strong performances but I think his voice is average and his personality is lacking. I don't think the fans like him and after he lays his next egg I think he is gone. He can not win the competition.

6)Chris:I didn't like his attitude with Simon the other night and I think he is a phony. I think he mentioned VT to pander for votes. As for his voice? It sucks. He too can not win Idol.

[TheVegan]

[ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I guess that wasn't funny. And rereading it today, it came off as serious. Apologies, Vegan. I guess I should have stuck one of these [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] on there.


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Thanks! No problem. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[thing85]

Sixth_Rule, I appreciate the in depth analysis, but I can't help but point out its flaws (I'm not trying to flame you - just giving some constructive criticism).

One issue rests within your assumption:
[ QUOTE ]
I feel Simon to be an unbiased person.

[/ QUOTE ]
He, like the producers, has his favorites and has an agenda. We've seen this through his pimping of Jordin and Blake's performances when they were decent, but not as good as he made them out to be. He thinks Phil is boring, and even when Phil has performed well (enough), Simon's comments have not reflected this. Phil seems to be (and Simon would agree with this) a very good karaoke singer - with the exception of this past week. The Sting song was good but this was because he mimicked Sting very well (like a good karaoke singer).

I agree that Blake is overrated as a singer, but he is definitely the top performer of the guys. He probably won't win, but he is poised to maintain his favoritism among the guys. Also, despite his weak singing, his studio sound really isn't bad. AmericanIdol.com (and other places) allow you to download studio versions of the songs that the contestants sing. Granted, the studio even made Sanjaya sound decent, but I preferred Blake's studio recordings to even Melinda's (though I confess to liking the songs Blake sang more than the ones Melinda sang). Bottom line is, if Blake can sound good in the studio and can perform as a pop star, he can still win this.

Phil's recordings were okay, but not great. He has a nice sound when he belts out his vocals, but his lower range remains weak and this will continue to show through whatever songs he sings. Bottom line: He's not a great singer - at best, he's slightly better than Blake in terms of vocal projection, but miles worse in terms of image, stage presence, and overall performing ability.

You're giving Phil's price a 10% chance of rising to 15-18? Even if he does put together one or two more outstanding performances, AI gamblers will never bid the price that high. He will always be among the 1 or 2 people expected to be eliminated from here on out. This is more like 1-3%.

20% chance that Phil overtakes Blake? This is also too high. 10% IMO, and even that may be too high given how much the producers and judges favor Blake.

Given your optimistic calculations, Phil's price is still only marginally +EV, making it a questionable investment on its own. Again, this is only my opinion.

[pokerplayer28]

I think phil has a ton of potential simple because he has the voters (country,christian,VFTW, and his home state supports him more than any other contestant) If phil had better stage presence and a decent appearance he would be priced at 8-11 right now.

Which contestant at this time last year had an 8-11 price, stage presence, was hot, had the country vote, had the VFTW vote, and came off a solid top 7 performace? Where did she finish?

[mynamewastaken]

VFTW is the kiss of death. They've almost defined their contestants out of their shot at winning. Phil will be gone within the next week or two; I will be stunned if he makes the final 4 but what do I know.

I believe Jordin will overtake Melinda as the fav before this thing is done.

Blake pretty much tanked it last week. I don't think anyone who's ever had pimpspot has been sent home; just being in the b3 is a huge deal. That pretty much means Blake can not win this, and the final 2 will almost certainly be 2 girls (Melinda and Jordin). This is corroborated by Simon's Oprah interview. I think when Simon says "you can win AI" it means you will win AI.

Richardson has been quietly surviving and getting no respect. I don't see him going anywhere but I gladly threw down on even money as a LL vs Phil. At worst it's a zero-EV coinflip. At best Phil has been in the b3 many more times than Chris, and as far as we know Chris did better than Phil last week.

In summary, I sold my Melinda stock for a nice profit, bought some of Jordin and some Chris LL Phil at +100.

Long ago in the semifinals I shorted Lakisha at -300. I keep wanting to cash out and lock up my profit but she won't go low enough. I wish she would go away already... I've been waiting for 4 weeks now.

[TheVegan]

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I believe Jordin will overtake Melinda as the fav before this thing is done................

the final 2 will almostcertainly be 2 girls (Melinda and Jordin). This is corroborated by Simon's Oprah interview. I think when Simon says "you can win AI" it means you will win AI..........................

Long ago in the semifinals I shorted Lakisha at -300. I keep wanting to cash out and lock up my profit but she won't go low enough. I wish she would go away already... I've been waiting for 4 weeks now.

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"mynameistaken" I will be impressed if Jordan becomes the favorite before it's all done.

As for Simon's opinion he said right after the line about the top two that he wouldn't count Lakisha out. You might want to take this as a sign to bail out of your short there.
Me, I keep buying her whenever she dips below 10 at WSEX. I'd hate to see you lose on her especially since you were nice enough to try to help me out with an east coast feed of Idol. That was cool of you. I just wish it worked for me. I would love to watch Idol live so I can participate in the forum during Idol. That way if Lakisha tanks people can ask me what drugs I am on. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] <font color="purple"> </font>

[StellarWind]

My take:

1. Melinda is still the odds-on favorite thanks to her impressive singing talent. Her downside is she is almost totally lacking in star quality. I have a gut feeling that winning AI will be the high point of her career.

2. Jordin gets my vote for most likely to be a huge star in five years. She continues to impress and has a real chance to win. Unlike Melinda who seems very locked into her sound, Jordin has the flexibility to sing a lot of different styles. This could make a big difference down the final stretch when parts of the audience may become bored with Melinda sounding the same every week. Jordin also has a huge advantage in looks and personality.

The rest don't seem to have much chance to win at this point.

3. Blake is the most overrated performer left in the competition. He is a competent singer but very limited in what he can do. He is very clever at hiding this problem but sometimes he gets in trouble anyway. His recent B3 showing may partially be the result of the audience punishing him for evading the country theme. In any event it shows that his superiority in the eyes of the judges is not felt by the voters.

I rate the three remaining guys about equal in performing ability and voter appeal. None of them are guarenteed anything at this point and it will come down to who performs the best in a given week.

4. Chris had a really off week on stage and needs to rebound.

5. Phil is better than most people give him credit for. He really needs to wear a hat.

6. LaKisha is in terrible trouble. Many Sanjaya votes will simply not exist next week, but the rest are going every way except LaKisha. Many of Sanjaya's female fans will simply pick their favorite of the three guys giving an instant boost to all the contestants that LaKisha can actually hope to beat this week. Another large block will go to Jordin because worshipping young girls are one of her natural fan bases. Melinda will also pick up a bunch of Sanjaya fans, especially the older ones, because she is the front runner and best singer. LaKisha gets nothing. If they voted again right now she would be dead. She needs to come up with a really strong performance Tuesday night--something with wow factor and broad appeal.

Anyway she can't beat Melinda and probably not Jordin either. Every guy she succeeds in outlasting will just make things harder the next week as the remaining guys pick up most of the loser's votes. Eventually Melinda's grip on LaKisha's natural fan base will be more than she can cope with.

It's unfortunate in a way because she is a very fine singer. But Vegan, they call it American Idol, not American Singer, and it's on TV not radio. An Idol is a star first and an artist second. LaKisha is sorely lacking in almost every quality an idol needs other than singing talent. Plus she is very limited by her style and can't do different things. I mentioned this with Melinda but it's a minor failing compared to LaKisha's inflexible style.

[thing85]

Good post Stellar - 100% agree.

Vegan, how many shares of Lakisha do you own? I'm starting to get scared for you.

If it comes down to Melinda and Jordin, I still believe Jordin will be the dog by quite a bit (I could see anywhere from +150 to +200 for her) but could still win of course. If it's Melinda and Blake for some reason, Melinda wins in a landslide.

[Analyst]

[ QUOTE ]
My take:

1. Melinda is still the odds-on favorite thanks to her impressive singing talent. Her downside is she is almost totally lacking in star quality. I have a gut feeling that winning AI will be the high point of her career.

2. Jordin gets my vote for most likely to be a huge star in five years. She continues to impress and has a real chance to win. Unlike Melinda who seems very locked into her sound, Jordin has the flexibility to sing a lot of different styles. This could make a big difference down the final stretch when parts of the audience may become bored with Melinda sounding the same every week. Jordin also has a huge advantage in looks and personality.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have Melinda and Jordin's future prospects backwards. Melinda has the ability to become one of this generation's finest vocalists - actually, I think she has the potential to become one of the all-time greats. While she will probably never be at the very top of the charts simply due to her genre, she should sell consistently well for a long, long time to come and quite possibly win a closet-full of Grammys along the way.

Jordin, on the other hand, win or lose will explode out of AI and sell tons of recordings right off the bat. I don't think she has the pure vocal talent to keep it going, though, and in five to ten years will be eclipsed by the next wave of pretty talented, bubbly 17-22 year olds.