Likelihood of undefeated Pats

[kyro]

tereg,

Please give me 100:1 odds on this. This is like easy money for you.

[vixticator]

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tereg,

Please give me 100000:1 odds on this. This is like easy money for you.

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[Artdogg]

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Hmm, I'd like to offer 3:2 odds on the Cowboys over the Pats if anyone's interested. I definitely think they win more than 50% of the time.

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Pats will be -5 or so

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roughly a 0% chance that it will be higher than pats-3, unless something crazy happens this week, most likely will be a pk (or somewhere within the 3 either way)

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bet you on the line? if I can find 2 sites where it's more than -3 at any point, you owe me $50. otherwise you win

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I would do it but this week could change things. Consider Dallas ended up favored vs Indy last year when Indy was 9-0 (NE is better than last years Indy team but Dallas is also a lot better this year than last) and also Dallas is favored by 10 this week @ Buff (same team NE was favored by 17 at home vs.) I think it's much more likely that the line could move past the 3 than it opening there, but pretty unlikely it ever gets there.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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Hmm, I'd like to offer 3:2 odds on the Cowboys over the Pats if anyone's interested. I definitely think they win more than 50% of the time.

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Pats will be -5 or so

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roughly a 0% chance that it will be higher than pats-3, unless something crazy happens this week, most likely will be a pk (or somewhere within the 3 either way)

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bet you on the line? if I can find 2 sites where it's more than -3 at any point, you owe me $50. otherwise you win

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I would do it but this week could change things. Consider Dallas ended up favored vs Indy last year when Indy was 9-0 (NE is better than last years Indy team but Dallas is also a lot better this year than last) and also Dallas is favored by 10 this week @ Buff (same team NE was favored by 17 at home vs.) I think it's much more likely that the line could move past the 3 than it opening there, but pretty unlikely it ever gets there.

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ok, but there is uncertainty both ways.

[ZeTurd]

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I see someone else already threw some guess %'s out there; seems pretty clear we're in the 1-3% ballpark.

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I don't like the pats. I don't like pats fans (generally). And I think Tom Brady is overrated.

But... If they continue to play like they've done in their first four games and consistently demolish their opponents, especially if they manage to beat the Cowboys at Texas Stadium in week 6, it's implied that their percentage chance to win the next game will increase for each dominant win.

That is if you factor out things like saving key players if they're 14-0, or psychological factors such as complacency.

The point is, you have to operate with increasing percentages in a likelihood calculation as the season progresses. It will still be very unlikely that they manage to go undefeated, but it's something that should be taken into consideration.

[tereg]

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The point is, you have to operate with increasing percentages in a likelihood calculation as the season progresses. It will still be very unlikely that they manage to go undefeated, but it's something that should be taken into consideration.

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I agree with this. If they're 13-0 and have NYJ, Mia and @NYG, of course they're chances of being perfect are a lot higher than what they would be at this point.

Also, I think maybe it should be noted that it's tempting to have the stance (not necessarily everyone's stance, but I think there's a large group of people that would feel this way) that if the Pats beat both the Cowboys and the Colts, that they've got a relatively smooth road to go perfect.

But remember, when the Colts were 4-0 in 2005, it was, generally speaking, "Hey, if the Colts can just get past the Pats in Week 9, they've got a great shot at running the table."

But at that point in the season, Seattle (who would be 12-2 by the time the Colts faced them at the end of the season) was only 2-2 at the time (Lost - Jax and Was, Won - Atl and Ari)

Surely when the Colts were 4-0 no one was really saying "Hey, watch out for Seattle at the end of the year." It was all about Week 9, Colts/Pats.

My point is, is it's easy to look at a larger schedule like the Pats' remaining 12 games and circle Dal and Ind as the obvious tough games. But I think it's fairly likely that one of these 1-3 or 2-2 teams we're not expecting to explode might so that by the end of the year, the microanalysis of the Pats' remaining 4 or 5 games will be different than what it is now. ldo.

Making it such that NE will have to beat more than just what we perceive now as the tough games.

I didn't really wrap up the point about if the Pats go 10-0. My point is, is there's VERY little chance they're winning all 6 of those games given the circumstances I laid out.

Also, since "nothing is impossible" != 0%, I'll indulge and say 0.1%

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tereg,

Please give me 100000:1 odds on this. This is like easy money for you.


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Oh, if only I had that kind of money to blow.


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tereg,

Please give me 100:1 odds on this. This is like easy money for you.


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Oh, if only I had that kind of money to blow.

[tolbiny]

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Can't this just be figured out mathematically? Somebody with good NFL line-setting knowledge should be able to do this easily.

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@DAL - 50% to win
@MIA - 80% to win
WAS - 80% to win
@IND - 50% to win
@BUF - 85% to win
PHI - 80% to win
@BAL - 60% to win
PIT - 70% to win
NYJ - 80% to win
MIA - 90% to win
@NYG - 60% to win

= 1.97%

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Browns.

[ZeTurd]

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My point is, is it's easy to look at a larger schedule like the Pats' remaining 12 games and circle Dal and Ind as the obvious tough games. But I think it's fairly likely that one of these 1-3 or 2-2 teams we're not expecting to explode might so that by the end of the year, the microanalysis of the Pats' remaining 4 or 5 games will be different than what it is now. ldo.

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Oh, I agree about that, but remember, if the pats continue to win they will generally be increasingly favored against a random opponent. Your example might work the other way too. Manning might get injured, and/or the Colts D will start to get funky again, and suddenly the @ Colts game won't look so hard no more. But if the pats continue to win, especially if they do so convincingly, their value will increase no matter what. Against 12x random opponents left, their equity, so to speak, will increase consistently unless they run into variance and a large number of their remaining opponents get better as the season goes along.

[jstnrgrs]

I have to admit that the Pats haven't played anyone yet. The've been very impressive against the teams the have played, but all four of them are looking pretty crappy now. We'll have a better idea of how good they are after they play Dallas.

Even so, I rate the likelyhood that the go undefeated at <5%.

[jstnrgrs]

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Pats have a 0% chance, because if they get homefield Billy B won't play his players.

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Bellichick doesn't subscibe to the "sit your players" theory. Hasn't he always played his stars in previous years?

In the last game of the 2004 season, Brady played well into the 4th quarter despite the Patriots being locked into the 2 seed.

In the last game of the 2003 season, Brady played well into the 4th quarter despite the Patriots being up 28-0 at halftime against the Bills (they won 31-0). I forget if they had the #1 locked up. A Patriots loss and Chiefs win would have resulted in both teams being 13-3 with a 10-2 conference reacord (no heads-up game). They had a bye locked up.

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In the last game of 2005, Matt Castle played most (all?) of the game despite the 3 or 4 seed still being up in the air. (This was the game against Miami when Flutie drop kicked an extra point).