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#31
10-23-2007, 04:10 PM
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Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
I don't necessarily agree with this: in that regard, evaluating GM's is like evaluting players, but the sample size you need is much longer.
If you have a near limitless budget, you shouldn't be given as much time. 
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#32
10-23-2007, 04:17 PM
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Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
Theo has had his ups and downs. I don't think he's bad, I don't think he's great. I still believe Larry Lucchino has a lot to do with the Sox success.
First the bad: The talk of this has been quashed lately, but I believe Theo did not want to do the Nomar deal and he felt Lucchino bullied him on that one. The ss situation has been a comedy of errors. They had the best choice in '04 when they got Cabrera. Letting him go for Renterria (when the two had roughly equivalent stats) was flat out wrong. Then at least he makes up for it with A-Gon, who is only the best ss on earth. Then he overpays for Lugo who is fast, but inferior both offensively and defensively to all the previous guys at the position. J.D. Drew. No need for anything else to be said on this one. The Suppan trade deadline deal in '03. The mishandling of Cla Meredith and Craig Hansen. Now the good: Theo has been very good about cutting ties before the player deteriorates, a la Pedro & Damon. Josh Beckett. Whether he really did recognize that having Lowell included and the combined salries made it a steal is irrelelvant. It worked out. Ortiz. The growth and prospering of the minor league system. This may be the best aspect of Theo's tenure so far. The half-right deal: Gagne. They signed him in case Oki wore out. Guess what? Oki wore out. Nobody could have foreseen such a terrible run by Gagne. They needed a bat and went after Dye, but ultimately, the Chisox made him unavailable. Ironically, if they get Dye, Jacoby Ellsbury is a non-factor in September. The future? Johan Santana. The Sox can fill some gaps the Twins have. Package CoCo Crisp along with their best non-Navajo position player prospect and either Lester and Masterson, or just Buccholtz and you have a devastating top 2 in Josh & Johan, and Daisuke will improve. I give Theo a B+
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#33
10-23-2007, 04:19 PM
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Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
[ QUOTE ]
If you have a near limitless budget, you shouldn't be given as much time. [/ QUOTE ] the Red Sox really don't spend a TOM more than teams like the Mets, Angels, Dodgers, etc, so it's not nearly limitless. anyways, I'm saying GM's are as susceptible to variance as players are. Sometimes you get really lucky (Ortiz, Okajima). Sometimes a new huge $$ FA decides to have the worst year of his life/terrible year (JD Drew, Renteria). And when you consider that you're not turning over a huge % of your roster every year (ie you're only making a few key major league personnel decisions every year) running good/bad in acquisitions for a couple years in a row will give you a grade that probably isn't in tune with how good or bad you really are. combine that with how long it takes to develop major league talent - which is critical for any team - and judging a GM after only 3 or 4 years is probably a mistake. at the same time, if 100% of your decisions have been awful, you probably aren't a good gm.
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#34
10-23-2007, 04:37 PM
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Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
[ QUOTE ]
has been legitimately awful in the free agent market [/ QUOTE ] Are you serious? In 2002 their infield was Tony Clark, Rey Sanchez, Shea Hillenbrand and Nomar, with Brian Daubach at DH. In 2003 their infield was Kevin Millar, Todd Walker, Bill Mueller and Nomar, with David Ortiz at DH. In 2004 they added Mark Bellhorn. Now, you may be saying that Epstein has been awful at the HIGH-PROFILE free agent market. Edgar Renteria, Matt Clement, Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew support that. At the same time, recognize that he found Keith Foulke, he kept Jason Varitek, and that most of the major upgrades were acquired in trades. More importantly, to those who say he has infinite money, he made the decision to let go of Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, Bill Mueller, Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez and Orlando Cabrera. I bet most (~80%) of the GMs in the league would have overpaid to keep most of these guys out of loyalty for their ties to the 04 World Series team. Well, 3 years later, Damon is nowhere near his 2004 level and the Yanks are stuck with him for 2 more years. Nixon slugged .336 this year. Mueller retired due to injury. Lowe is somehow successful. Pedro had a 4.48 ERA last year, and missed the season this year. Cabrera hit an empty .300 this year; he has no power and can't draw a walk. Finally, he's traded for Schilling, Beckett and Lowell, and the farm system was still good enough to churn out Papelbon, Youkilis, Pedroia, Delcarmen, Ellsbury and Meredith. The best prospects they gave up were Hanley Ramirez, who was a long-shot to succeed but has turned into a hell of a player, and Freddy Sanchez, who is like Dustin Pedroia without the walks. Theo Epstein, best GM in the league no doubt. It's not a coincidence the Sox are back in the World Series.
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#35
10-23-2007, 04:47 PM
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Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
I don't think Hanley was a 'long shot' to succeed, but otherwise it's a nice post.
Oh and the best GM thing is pretty silly, partly because I really doubt he is (Beane, Riccardi), partly because it's really hard to analyze with all the market differences. Top 5 is probably accurate.
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#36
10-23-2007, 04:59 PM
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Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
The only deal I disagreed with at the time was letting O-Cab go, (not that he's a world beater, just that there are so few SS who aren't a complete mess it seems) and I'm frightened that they will make a similar mistake with Lowell this winter.
The Gagne deal was a +EV bet that didn't work. Gabbard will be a back of the rotation guy on second division clubs for his whole career. Murphy might turn into a decent player, but the odds are decidedly on "not". Clement getting skulled has to sort of give him a pass on that one right? It's not like he signed a guy with a history of arm issues whose arm then gave out. Coco has been a disappointment, but not an especially high priced one, especially compared to Damon. Plus it looks like we're going to get away with it, as Jacoby is pretty clearly ready.
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#38
10-23-2007, 05:39 PM
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Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] In 2002 their infield was Tony Clark, Rey Sanchez, Shea Hillenbrand and Nomar, with Brian Daubach at DH. [/ QUOTE ] Wow. [/ QUOTE ] How soon did we forget!
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#40
10-23-2007, 06:05 PM
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Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] In 2002 their infield was Tony Clark, Rey Sanchez, Shea Hillenbrand and Nomar, with Brian Daubach at DH. [/ QUOTE ] Wow. [/ QUOTE ] maybe wow, maybe not wow. The only fair way to evaluate Epstein is to look at the available payroll at the time of a personnel move and then look at the available personnel options that fit within that budget. Of course this is difficult to do since the GM generally has far superior market information to even the intelligent hardcore baseball fan. In any event, he has put a World Series caliber team together so congrats to him. From this thread it looks like Epstein maybe shouldn't get so much credit for the Beckett acquisition. I also think the Red Sox got stupid lucky with Lowell's production. He must have found a new chemical.
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