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#31
04-24-2007, 06:25 PM
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Re: AKs 4 bet pre oop gets cold called
Bilbo I know we gave eachother some crap the other day, but that was a great post.
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#32
04-24-2007, 06:28 PM
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Re: AKs 4 bet pre oop gets cold called
[ QUOTE ]
Bilbo I know we gave eachother some crap the other day, but that was a great post. [/ QUOTE ] I give everyone crap. I'm an angry young man.
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#33
04-24-2007, 06:42 PM
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Re: AKs 4 bet pre oop gets cold called
I am too.
But I try to keep it down on 2+2, afterall, where would we all be without it?
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#37
04-25-2007, 01:31 AM
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Re: AKs 4 bet pre oop gets cold called
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I really must be missing something, where is the 4th bet? SB raise BB reraise SB re-reraise BB calls [/ QUOTE ] Welcome to poker buddy [/ QUOTE ] You're Cool guy.
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#38
04-25-2007, 04:38 AM
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Re: AKs 4 bet pre oop gets cold called
Excellent post Bilbo.
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#40
04-25-2007, 11:32 AM
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Re: AKs 4 bet pre oop gets cold called
Ok, I’m sure a lot of you are not hoping this thread would just go away. However, I was thinking about his hand some more today, and I think that shoving the AK on this flop is something that should not be so easily dismissed.
I believe you should always first look at an aggressive way to play a hand. Try to put your opponent to a decision for his/her stack. I will attempt to try and explain my logic behind my belief that… while it may be a very small edge, I do believe that shoving may be +EV. Assumption #1 It starts with what range you put the BB on. I believe a player would at least reraise if not shove preflop if they had AA, KK. Therefore I put the BB on the following range. AKs, AKo, QQ, JJ, TT You may be able to extent this range to include 99 or AQ, but this goes even further out on the limp I am already on. Assumption #2 What does the BB put you on if you shove? He/she will have to put you on a very similar range, however, I believe your range includes AA and KK, b/c you continued to push the action preflop as far as you could... i.e. he called preflop… you didn’t. Now, when you shove the question is, What percentage of the time will your opponent put you on AA, KK and therefore fold preflop? This is the meat and potatoes question. Never?….. do you believe a person calls here 100% of the time with the range in Assumption #1? I think you can be very confident that it is lower than 100%. Does he/she call 50% of the time? If we said that 70% of the time the person has QQ, JJ, TT and calls. Then 30% of the time we win. The other 70% -- we have AK vs. a pair. Our win or tie percentage is between 32.5% and 30% based on whether they have a club or not. So 70% * 32.5% = 22.75% and 70% * 30% = 21% So if they call we still win or tie between 22.75% - 21% Add that to the 30% of the time that they fold and this play wins or ties between 52.75% - 51%.......... Which makes shoving the flop +EV. Of course this whole logic goes to poop if in your opinion the person will call more than 70% of the time. My personal opinion is that they will call no more than 70% of the time. I believe it really could be less, based on the fact that it is a battle of the blinds and I believe you may be able to add crap like AQ, AJ, A10s.. in to the BB range. Please pick this apart…. Are there any errors in my logic? Do you feel my assumptions are extremely insane? Can we at least agree that folding is not an obv and standard play here?
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