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#31
09-12-2007, 08:49 PM
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Re: UFC 76
No, it's not. If you are assuming AN EXACT, KNOWN edge, then of course there is no "variance" to be considered- only the exact, known edge. This entire conversation would be moot if we knew such a thing.
Consider chess ratings. For those not familiar, they range from roughly 1000-2800 (with horrific little kids below 1000). A player, on average, scores 75% against somebody rated 200 points lower 75%. So if we see "2200 v. 2000", with no other information, we would expect a score of 0.75. Now, let's consider two hypothetical 2000 players. One 2000 pretty much murders everybody lower rated, but hardly ever scores against higher-rated players. The second 2000 has lots of upsets, but also lots of upset losses. Even though both would have the same aggregate score against a "background" of competition with varying ratings, these two players have vastly different expectations against a 2200. The former will be way under 25%, the latter will be significantly over it. The latter player's ability to win against higher-level competition more often (and lose against lower-level competition more often), compared to an "average" player of EXACTLY EQUAL NET RESULTS VS. A BACKGROUND OF OPPONENTS, is the variance we're talking about here. If you don't think such things can exist, in chess and in MMA, well, you're just wrong. 
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#32
09-12-2007, 08:58 PM
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Re: UFC 76
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i only have money on wsex and my sportsbetting roll is super tiny [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Bad beat. [/ QUOTE ] stake me? i think u should
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#33
09-12-2007, 10:32 PM
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Re: UFC 76
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i only have money on wsex and my sportsbetting roll is super tiny [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Bad beat. [/ QUOTE ] stake me? i think u should [/ QUOTE ] Even if I were into that, I wouldn't have the cash for it either.
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#34
09-12-2007, 11:01 PM
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Re: UFC 76
i found a bookie who takes mspaints
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#35
09-12-2007, 11:20 PM
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Re: UFC 76
[ QUOTE ]
why would someone take +100 on diego when i'm offering +115? [/ QUOTE ] The point was it wasn't going to happen, that's why I said that. I don't have and am not putting money into bodog but u can get ur -115 on fitch there.
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#36
09-12-2007, 11:52 PM
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Re: UFC 76
[ QUOTE ]
ill prolly take these three bets KEITH JARDINE +270 DIEGO SANCHEZ EVEN MAURICIO RUA -360 shogun is just too good to lose more than like 5% of the time here. hes not gonna get submitted and a KO or a decision is pretty unlikely he epitomizes a well rounded fighter and athlete i took jardine cause he is pretty good and liddell really isnt that good. hes got insane punching power and a good takedown defense but he really isnt a great boxer and i see him losing this fight ~50% of the time diego is really good despite my hatred for him so i had to take him as a dog at even money [/ QUOTE ] 5%? Really? I'll give you 10-1 on forrest, pm me for details. STEAL for you lol.
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#38
09-13-2007, 08:05 AM
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Re: UFC 76
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] why would someone take +100 on diego when i'm offering +115? [/ QUOTE ] The point was it wasn't going to happen, that's why I said that. I don't have and am not putting money into bodog but u can get ur -115 on fitch there. [/ QUOTE ] what makes you think i haven't done so already? the prob when your unit size is big relative to exotic props is that rarely you can get enough down at the # you like before running into the max limit restrictions; in this case being the jew that i am, i was even willing to take one cent worse.. ================================================ Date placed: Sep xx, 2007 xxxx Single #xxxxxxxx Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline UFC 76 Welterweights - Sat, Sep 22nd (10:00pm) @ Honda Center, CA Both must fight for action. No Parlays. Max $500 (707) Jon Fitch -115 Sep 22/07@10:00p Competitor: (708) Diego Sanchez Risk $575.00 to win $500.00 ================================================= xxxx x-Sep-07 xxxx 22-Sep-07 Future MMA Fight Odds - UFC 76 - Honda Center, ... -116 2,320.00 2,000.00 UFC 76 - Honda Center, CA Welterweights ================================================== ======= now do you understand why i'm offering to book a bet at a line that can be considered "w.a"? i'm just surprised at all the folks who loves diego at even yet no one has stepped up to take +115 which i'm quite certain is the best price out there at the moment.. Jon Fitch Vs. Diego Sanchez Jon Fitch vs Diego Sanchez
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#39
09-13-2007, 01:17 PM
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Re: UFC 76
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] why would someone take +100 on diego when i'm offering +115? [/ QUOTE ] The point was it wasn't going to happen, that's why I said that. I don't have and am not putting money into bodog but u can get ur -115 on fitch there. [/ QUOTE ] what makes you think i haven't done so already? the prob when your unit size is big relative to exotic props is that rarely you can get enough down at the # you like before running into the max limit restrictions; in this case being the jew that i am, i was even willing to take one cent worse.. ================================================ Date placed: Sep xx, 2007 xxxx Single #xxxxxxxx Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline UFC 76 Welterweights - Sat, Sep 22nd (10:00pm) @ Honda Center, CA Both must fight for action. No Parlays. Max $500 (707) Jon Fitch -115 Sep 22/07@10:00p Competitor: (708) Diego Sanchez Risk $575.00 to win $500.00 ================================================= xxxx x-Sep-07 xxxx 22-Sep-07 Future MMA Fight Odds - UFC 76 - Honda Center, ... -116 2,320.00 2,000.00 UFC 76 - Honda Center, CA Welterweights ================================================== ======= now do you understand why i'm offering to book a bet at a line that can be considered "w.a"? i'm just surprised at all the folks who loves diego at even yet no one has stepped up to take +115 which i'm quite certain is the best price out there at the moment.. Jon Fitch Vs. Diego Sanchez Jon Fitch vs Diego Sanchez [/ QUOTE ] Did I ever say I didn't beleive you'd already bet Jon Fitch anywhere you could @ -115? No. I simply stated u could get him @ bodog @ -115 IN CASE you hadn't already, I'll be sure to correct myself in the future and not point out lines that you probably already bet but may not have. 2ndly, I'm not surprised at all no one has given you action. I was dead serious saying I'd take the opposite end of every single one of his bets, but I was fairly certain it wasn't going to happen. In any case I put the offer out there just in case, there's no sense in both parties losing out to the books if there's a possibility that we can do our own trade. The only people I know who I could actually bet against in that wy and for large sums of money...I rarely ever bet against and vice versa.
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#40
09-13-2007, 07:11 PM
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Re: UFC 76
you're reading a lil too much into this. i'm typically indifferent to others' opinions as it has no effects on me. i'm simply explaining the position why i'm willing to the take the worst of it at the ask price instead of mid/bid price.. in case anyone is interested in a highly juicy line.
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