Hand from Borgata WPT

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
the BB says several times that he meant to call. He is very adamant about it too. He doesn't seem upset at the ruling or anything, but I guess he just wants to make it clear that he wanted to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if the guy had AQ or a draw and his bet was ruled as a raise, he'd be somewhat upset. Nor do I think he ever has a bluff here given above. Very unlikely he was going to pretend to call, while actually intending to raise as a bluff or call turn so he could bluff you on river. His line and the above actions seem extremely strong. Not to mention that people's ranges out of the bb, raising over an UTG limp are usually slim to begin w/. There are 9 possible combos of AK, and 9 possible combos of AA/KK/TT, but he could show up w/ QJ occasionally, but I doubt he ever has one pair or worse. Anyhow, I think you should either just call or fold because you're a dog vs. his range, but depending on how you weight AK/AA/KK/TT/QJ, there may be enough overlay where you can call and c/c river. But call and c/f river is extremely awful, as he's betting river extremely often, except when Q/J comes off on river.

I vote fold.

[ZJ123]

[ QUOTE ]
But call and c/f river is extremely awful, as he's betting river extremely often, except when Q/J comes off on river.

[/ QUOTE ]

but why?

What if he really just wanted to call the turn? then he would check behind on most rivers, but if he bets? Then he is most likely angle shooting and you can fold. If you think hes angle shooting then you fold, if u think he actually wanted to call, then you call and check the river, because hes not betting worst (save for AK, but i think he bets the flop with that). Under these circumstances hes almost never bluffing the river or making a thin value bet.

[benlj21]

never mind

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the BB says several times that he meant to call. He is very adamant about it too. He doesn't seem upset at the ruling or anything, but I guess he just wants to make it clear that he wanted to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if the guy had AQ or a draw and his bet was ruled as a raise, he'd be somewhat upset. Nor do I think he ever has a bluff here given above. Very unlikely he was going to pretend to call, while actually intending to raise as a bluff or call turn so he could bluff you on river. His line and the above actions seem extremely strong. Not to mention that people's ranges out of the bb, raising over an UTG limp are usually slim to begin w/. There are 9 possible combos of AK, and 9 possible combos of AA/KK/TT, but he could show up w/ QJ occasionally, but I doubt he ever has one pair or worse. Anyhow, I think you should either just call or fold because you're a dog vs. his range, but depending on how you weight AK/AA/KK/TT/QJ, there may be enough overlay where you can call and c/c river. But call and c/f river is extremely awful, as he's betting river extremely often, except when Q/J comes off on river.

I vote fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple things.

So my above post is wrong, because i derived the correct range incorrectly partly using his live misclick?

Also, why must he be angle shooting, he could flat AA hoping that the armenian raises, or flat calling because he's bad and doesn't realize he needs to start building this pot being 200+bbs deep. After all, we are assuming he checked the flop w/ AA when he should probably have bet, trying to build a pot (unless he's counting on armenian guy to bet very often when checked to there)

Is it just me or did the "key" turn out to be a bit of a let down for anyone else? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the BB says several times that he meant to call. He is very adamant about it too. He doesn't seem upset at the ruling or anything, but I guess he just wants to make it clear that he wanted to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if the guy had AQ or a draw and his bet was ruled as a raise, he'd be somewhat upset. Nor do I think he ever has a bluff here given above. Very unlikely he was going to pretend to call, while actually intending to raise as a bluff or call turn so he could bluff you on river. His line and the above actions seem extremely strong. Not to mention that people's ranges out of the bb, raising over an UTG limp are usually slim to begin w/. There are 9 possible combos of AK, and 9 possible combos of AA/KK/TT, but he could show up w/ QJ occasionally, but I doubt he ever has one pair or worse. Anyhow, I think you should either just call or fold because you're a dog vs. his range, but depending on how you weight AK/AA/KK/TT/QJ, there may be enough overlay where you can call and c/c river. But call and c/f river is extremely awful, as he's betting river extremely often, except when Q/J comes off on river.

I vote fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple things.

So my above post is wrong, because i derived the correct range incorrectly partly using his live misclick?

Also, why must he be angle shooting, he could flat AA hoping that the armenian raises, or flat calling because he's bad and doesn't realize he needs to start building this pot being 200+bbs deep. After all, we are assuming he checked the flop w/ AA when he should probably have bet, trying to build a pot (unless he's counting on armenian guy to bet very often when checked to there)

Is it just me or did the "key" turn out to be a bit of a let down for anyone else? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Well that's another way of looking at the problem that no one said. Even if we know he meant to call the turn, it is still most likely correct to fold to his accidental raise.

[NoahSD]

Justin,
A few people (mastr and chewy, and probably more) already said that explicitly. Every other competent player left it out of their posts because it's really obvious that AA/KK/TT are a big part of his range.

The reason people didn't all jump on fold is because

1) AK is def in his range.
2) We have a set and folding sets sucks.
3) Everyone thought there was something interesting that they were missing.

[trplthrt]

What tilts me the most on this hand is your description of the villain. If your read is true, this is not the MO of a straightforward, not rich, probably satellited beer drinking east coaster. These guys are playing as long as they can play for and enjoying their time. You specifically said your read was 'not tricky and straightforward', both of which I think make it really difficult to pull some fake raise with the immortal nuts. I think it would have been much more clumsy and would have been silent, i.e., not make a big deal of it where his reaction needs to be exposed to everyone at the table. Often times these sort of players overvalue pretty flops vs two limpers / callers even with a hand like AK. While I don't think it is impossible for him to have AA or KK here, the reads don't add up in my mind for the whole acting job.

While I hate reading the river action, as it seems like it must be the nuts, if I leave that out I would not deduce by your description of this guy that he would make this play.

So, knowing the river, I think fold was right, but if I leave that out I don't think it is very clear and I don't think we can fold this turn. I also would check call the river. I don't really see what we've gained by the 5k lead. Maybe you can talk about this some, since I think it is interesting.

-trplthrt

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
Justin,
A few people (mastr and chewy, and probably more) already said that explicitly. Every other competent player left it out of their posts because it's really obvious that AA/KK/TT are a big part of his range.

The reason people didn't all jump on fold is because

1) AK is def in his range.
2) We have a set and folding sets sucks.
3) Everyone thought there was something interesting that they were missing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again you are missing the picture. It's not about what is in his range. It's about what isn't.

[ZeeJustin]

I'm surprised no one is confused by the fact that he wasn't upset. If he did have a monster, wouldn't he pretend to be upset?

Don't focus on this too much though, because it's not the key. Just a little something I found interesting.

I'm curious who the first person to find the key will be. I bet it's going to be a very well respected poster. Maybe LearnedFromTV!

Edit: I'm going to sleep relatively soon. I'll respond more in the morning.

[mastr]

zj, i kinda expected a lil discussion on my ramble at least.. I don't think its as open and shut as you may think, and I know I can never hope to be thorladen or Mr Sass.