Heisman Prop Bet

[bills217]

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McFadden
Rice
Brennan
White/Slaton
Woodson
maybe Tebow
Hart
maybe Brohm, no D is not his fault.

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Brohm has no chance (although it isn't his fault), but I like the rest of this list. Instead of Brohm, I'd probably go with Booty. I'd be sick leaving Booty off any Heisman list since the QB of the best team wins seemingly 80% of the time.

Shame to have to put both WV players on, but it really could be either one at this point. If you can get away with it, waiting to see if they lose to South Florida and then removing one or both might not be a bad plan.

[bills217]

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This has been really helpful. Thankyou to all who helped. Given the responses, I was able to bargain my way to 10 players rather than 8, and only giving him 1.5:1 odds rather than 2:1... though I had to commit to the players today (and give up on the waiting for WVU/USF thing...) So, here's the plan, if anybody is curious:

Tebow
Brennan
Woodson
McFadden
Bradford
Booty
Slaton
Rice
Matt Ryan
Mike Hart

Thankyou again to everyone who helped me here.

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Didn't see this post before I posted. This is a very good list and bet. Wish I could get it myself. Just gotta hope for chalk now. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[bills217]

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Curtis painter (4-0) top 25 team, 16 tds and 1 int. Look for him to get noticed after this week, and ND.

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while great players,
no way would I put Painter or Woodson or Brohm on the list

for a QB to win, his team has to be a huge winner. It would be a stretch for either Purdue or Kentucky to last and win their conferences (which is nerely a per-req for a QB).

A RB such as McFadden can win the heisman even with a slumping team. It would be incredibly hard, but not unprecedented.

Ever since Gino Toretta won over Marshall Faulk, the award has become quite the glamour piece for a good player from one of the top 5 teams in the country after the regular season.

Colt Brennan could overcome the top 5 because Hawai'i could go undefeated with him putting up ridic stats.

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This is exactly correct. Heisman voting tends to be regional. I love Woodson as a player, but if an SEC quarterback wins the Heisman this year, it won't be Woodson.

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Kentucky gets Florida in Lexington. If Kentucky wins that game (they'll be a 7-10 pt. underdog), they have the inside track to win the East. If Kentucky wins that game, both UK and UF lose to LSU, and UK takes 2 of 3 from UGA/UT/USC, then Kentucky is your East champ. If Florida splits with UGA/SC, then Kentucky could potentially win the East at 5-3 (again provided they somehow beat Florida).

This scenario is not that farfetched. Woodson is also in the process of extending his own NCAA record for passes without an interception, and currently looks like he may never ever throw an INT ever again. If he finishes the year with 30-40 TD's/0-3 INT's and UK wins the East, he is your Heisman winner.

Edited for correctness.

[iggymcfly]

Dixon doesn't have an interception yet this season either. If Oregon ends up 11-1 Pac-Ten champions and Kentucky's 10-3 after a 2nd loss to LSU, Woodson's numbers would have to be >>>>>> than Dixon's to have a shot. Likewise, if WVU goes 12-0 and White keeps up his current pace, he'd be way ahead of Woodson as well.

In order for Woodson to win, he needs:
1) to continue putting up lights out numbers
2) for Kentucky to finish much better than expected
3) for the other Heisman contenders to falter

Needing all three of those makes him a lot less likely than someone that only needs one or two. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go to New York, but in order for him to actually win the trophy, it would take a perfect storm of multiple factors colliding.

[bills217]

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Dixon doesn't have an interception yet this season either. If Oregon ends up 11-1 Pac-Ten champions and Kentucky's 10-3 after a 2nd loss to LSU, Woodson's numbers would have to be >>>>>> than Dixon's to have a shot. Likewise, if WVU goes 12-0 and White keeps up his current pace, he'd be way ahead of Woodson as well.

In order for Woodson to win, he needs:
1) to continue putting up lights out numbers
2) for Kentucky to finish much better than expected
3) for the other Heisman contenders to falter

Needing all three of those makes him a lot less likely than someone that only needs one or two. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go to New York, but in order for him to actually win the trophy, it would take a perfect storm of multiple factors colliding.

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I really think 2 is the main thing. 1 is basically automatic, and as for 3, I don't think others need to "falter" so much as no one else can really dominate, which is of course just as true for any other candidate.

Woodson has a lot more exposure than Dixon currently, and Dixon and Brennan will both have to battle East Coast bias (and Brennan mid-major non-continental bias). Brennan needs to go undefeated to have a chance to win. I think Oregon loses at least two games - PAC-10 is too deep.

Slaton and White will split up votes even if they go undefeated, which I don't think they will. They might not even be undefeated at the end of this week.

The fact that Mike Hart is even in the race is a joke to me (not saying he isn't a great player/great guy etc.). The argument as to why the Tim Couch/Randy Moss types can't win is that their teams haven't been good enough, but now we're gonna give it to a guy whose team lost to Appalachian State and then Oregon by 100 points, at home?

It all comes down to the Florida game really. Kentucky beats Florida (not saying they will) and Woodson immediately becomes Top 3 if not the favorite. If Kentucky wins the East, no one else has a dominant season, and the voters are left with Woodson versus a vanilla-undefeated-USC-QB, I would hope they pick Woodson.

Edit: I actually screwed up my earlier post. Florida doesn't need to lose to SC or UGA if they lose to Kentucky. If they did, then Kentucky can win the East at 5-3, which is even more realistic - although it would be a little harder for Woodson to win with 3 losses.

[bills217]

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If Oregon ends up 11-1 Pac-Ten champions and Kentucky's 10-3 after a 2nd loss to LSU

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Does the voting happen before or after the conference title games? Didn't some vanilla Oklahoma QB win after taking a complete dump in the Big 12 title game recently?

And if LSU is as good as they look and continue to go undefeated, there is no shame in losing to them twice or a hundred times.

[iggymcfly]

Voting's open through the conference title games, but the ballots are by mail and a lot of voters that don't care all that much about college football send them in early.

I guess what I was trying to say is that while WVU going 12-0, Oregon winning the Pac-Ten, Rutgers going 12-0, etc., are individually unlikely events, they're no more unlikely then Kentucky winning the SEC East, and if any of those events happen, it won't matter if Kentucky wins the SEC East or not.

In order to really be a legitimate frontrunner and to not need the other candidates to fall apart, Woodson would probably have to lead the Cats to 11 wins and a BCS game and I just don't see that happening.

[bills217]

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I guess what I was trying to say is that while WVU going 12-0, Oregon winning the Pac-Ten, Rutgers going 12-0, etc., are individually unlikely events, they're no more unlikely then Kentucky winning the SEC East, and if any of those events happen, it won't matter if Kentucky wins the SEC East or not.

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Even if WVU goes undefeated (unlikely), White and Slaton will split up votes. Even if Oregon wins the Pac-10 (unlikely), Dixon is way behind in exposure, currently, and plays on the west coast. I concede an undefeated Rutgers (also unlikely) is basically a lock for Rice, but the other two, not so.

Woodson is getting as much pub as anyone right now. I think (and hope) that considering the recent and not-so-recent history of the Kentucky program, the bar should be set a little lower re: team success. If UK wins the East, that is a monumental accomplishment. Period. Two years ago, the thought of Kentucky winning the SEC East in 2007 was totally unthinkable even for the most optimistic UK fan. The probability of that event was somewhere between 0 and 0.00001. That the program has come this far this quick is amazing, and Woodson has had a lot to do with it.

[SunOfBeach]

This was great - wish I knew about it before. I'll definitely keep my eyes on this for the rest of the year. I'm also now considering a side bet on Dixon at 10-1 on Matchbook (thanks to OP) to kind of 'close out' this thing, as he (and maybe White) seem to pretty clearly be my 2 biggest omissions...

[domer2]

McFadden -200
Someone else +200