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#31
10-21-2007, 07:46 PM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
BTW, I like Kansas and Purdue too. I think name value's the only thing keeping the KU line down as they've already beaten two opponents better than A&M on the road by more than 3 and have played much better than A&M against weak opponents as well.
Purdue, in addition to being 14 points better based on raw victory margin has hugely favorable matchups as NW has one of the worst pass defenses in the country whereas Purdue has one of the best and both teams will be throwing a lot. The extra plays from the passing game will also keep the total up, meaning even more points. 
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#32
10-21-2007, 07:46 PM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Actually, looking at it again, I bet Oregon's favored by 6 against USC. According to the Sagarin predictor, the line should actually be 18. [/ QUOTE ] Haven't we learned anything about the public and USC? After all, they beat ND by a whole bunch!
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#33
10-21-2007, 07:53 PM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
Still though, I bet this line sharpens up a bunch by gametime. Everyone in the media seemed to think Cal was better than Oregon too, but that line got up to 6 by kickoff. (Oregon was the right side there too, turnovers were the only thing that kept them from winning and covering.) If this line's lower than 4.5 on Friday, I'll be amazed.
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#34
10-21-2007, 07:53 PM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Stanford +12.5 Northwestern +12.5 Virginia Tech -2.5 Ole Miss +16.5 Illinois -13.5 North Carolina +6.5 Duke +18.5 Nevada -16.5 [/ QUOTE ] Very surprised to see you like Northwestern here on the road. That line strikes me as way off. Purdue has blown out all their weak opponents at home, both this year and in the past. They just beat Iowa 31-6 and they're better than Northwestern. Purdue's only two struggles were against OSU and on the road at Michigan. Northwestern barely beat a truly awful Minnesota team and also lost to Duke at home. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with Bills' comments Purdue is really good at dominating teams that don't have enough athletes to line-up against 4-5 wideouts. They love win OLBs from mediocre teams try to match up with someone in the slot. That's why Purdue's offense has struggled scoring v Michigan and Ohio State this year and Penn St and Wisconsin last year (when the Badgers had that excellent secondary). In those games, the boilers put up 21 (garbage time v Michigan), 7, 0, and 3 respectively. The Boilers have avg nearly 34.3 ppg in the rest of the last 2 seasons. Note that I use last year as well because Purdue returned nearly all that offense. The offense is a little better with more running for the Boilers this year. Also, NW has really struggled to stop pass first teams the last few years and this year as well. Last year, Purdue rolled in Evanston 31-10 in an even turnover game. Of course, NW couldn't pass last year, but that game was just domination. I'm leaning Purdue...will probably play later in the week after my models have come together and give me an estimate.
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#35
10-21-2007, 08:00 PM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
so is everyone on Oregon?
Someone give me a good reason for not betting multiple units on them ... other than the fact that everyone here is taking the same line [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#36
10-21-2007, 08:04 PM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
why not Oregon?
injuries to the depth of Oregon's skill players mistakes they might make in a close game---like Cal USC's defense is one of the few that can match Oregon's offense athleticism
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#37
10-21-2007, 08:13 PM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
Wow, Kansas dropped to -2.5. Very surprising. Time to add!
Surely people aren't giving A&M much credit for that Nebraska win given the Huskers' play of late? (And yes I am sick for not betting on A&M last week.) Kansas and A&M are teams headed in opposite directions.
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#38
10-21-2007, 08:18 PM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Wow, Kansas dropped to -2.5. Very surprising. Time to add! Surely people aren't giving A&M much credit for that Nebraska win given the Huskers' play of late? (And yes I am sick for not betting on A&M last week.) Kansas and A&M are teams headed in opposite directions. [/ QUOTE ] I think the negative for Kansas is how good is their rush defense really? They've played a few teams now and I'm impressed. However, how will they stand up against a team that is just going to punch them in the mouth over and over? I like the Kansas side, but I do see the other viewpoint
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#39
10-21-2007, 08:32 PM
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Re: Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
so is everyone on Oregon? Someone give me a good reason for not betting multiple units on them ... other than the fact that everyone here is taking the same line [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Line's only off by 1 from where I predicted it would be, not accounting for Ducks injuries?
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