ZeeJustin Prop Bet - Page 4

youcanhaveitall · #31 07-19-2007, 06:38 AM

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Justin I challenge you to crossbook me against any of your picks giving me 3-1. If you decline I assume that means you are interested in buying my action at $266 for 1% and I'll be happy to sell you a nice chunk.

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Sir, please stop taunting ZeeJustin until you have at least 10% of his career tournament winnings.

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Do you mean one of ZeeJustins account or all together?

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you suck.

mosta · #32 07-19-2007, 02:17 PM

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I was going to make this bet at $600 per player with my friend Barry Goren, ...

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I used to work with Barry in San FRancisco. Just a vague acquaintance though. What's he's doing these days? Poker? and his brother the bridge expert--poker for him?

wpr101 · #33 07-19-2007, 02:30 PM

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ZJ,

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Brian Townsend

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lol

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Why would that be funny? He's probably one of the best poker players in the world.

wpr101 · #34 07-19-2007, 02:33 PM

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1-20 - 8x
20-100 - 5x
100-200 - 4x
200-500 - 3x
500-1500 - 1.5x
1500-3000 - .7x
3000-4000 - .5x
4000-6000 - .3x
6000-6350 - .1x

What do you guys think of that equity distribution? Where does it seem off? Am I underestimating the equity of a terrible player? I think that adds up to about 5600, although technically it should be slightly less because the juice is so ridiculous.

I guess I should clarify that I did this with last year's pay out structure in mind. The bad players will do slightly better with this year's payout structure. How much of a difference does that make though?

Edit: The above was meant to be a conservative distribution. I really doubt the players that are 1500-3000th would actually have an equity that high.

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The fields are tougher online but when ROIs were posted for the best internet MTT players some of the best players were around 80%. I forget where this thread was, but it seems really high to think it could be as high as 800%.

J_V · #35 07-19-2007, 02:52 PM

Phil Hellmuth has missed the 1st level of WSOP ME two years in a row. This level is the softest and best level all year and he loses chips during this level. That takes him out of tier 1 ROI completely, IMO.

adanthar · #36 07-19-2007, 03:17 PM

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The fields are tougher online but when ROIs were posted for the best internet MTT players some of the best players were around 80%. I forget where this thread was, but it seems really high to think it could be as high as 800%.

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My online MTT ROI over 2 years is in the 150% range.

I don't think anyone can hit 800% in the ME (maybe if they never have an off day, or an off hour) but 600% seems reasonable for a Hellmuth or Ivey.

JJBuffone · #37 07-19-2007, 03:33 PM

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ZJ,

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Brian Townsend

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lol

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Why would that be funny? He's probably one of the best poker players in the world.

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He's clearly one of the best cash game players in the world, but has he proven anything in tournament poker? Maybe he just hasn't entered enough tournaments.

adanthar · #38 07-19-2007, 03:35 PM

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He's clearly one of the best cash game players in the world, but has he proven anything in tournament poker?

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lol

gumpzilla · #39 07-19-2007, 03:42 PM

Obviously aba would do quite well at the main event. However, would he do better than the best tournament specialists? Let's ignore the often mentioned incentives for excellent cash game players to employ a suboptimal early game strategy for hourly rate concerns and just assume everybody is coming with the A game.

Looking at this question, I feel like it must have been discussed a billion times before, but oh well. Somebody link me up if it's just going to be a waste of time.

sheetsworld · #40 07-19-2007, 09:03 PM

Perhaps a more fun take on this wager might follow thusly....

If Justin believes that he can pick 20 players with avg rois of 800%, then assuming there are 6400 players in the field, each player has an 1/800 chance of winning, or combined, the 20 people have a 2.4% chance of winning the main event. 1-(799/800^20)=.02470 So what this comes down is, would Justin be willing to pick 20 players and be given 39.4-1 that one of them wins the whole enchilada, and would anyone be willing to lay the 39.4-1 against him? If he picks 100 players with avg rois of 800% he should get 7.5-1. (1-(799/800)^100)=11.757%.

sheets