Toughest hand I've had in a long time. Ass end of straight 200BB deep

[Merek007]

You didn't bet the flop like you hit it. and 78 is not likely what he has you on..... He is likely afraid of you having AQ or AK or two spades. I would put him on pair or set and trying to push you out... You win this most of the time.. 70%+ would be my guess....

Has he pushed before? Has he had to show cards?

But what would I know.... I've only posted 5 times. ;')

[snakekilla88]

PLaying weaktight and scared is not the way to beat this game...

[Eihli]

Assuming he does this with KQ and a set
16 possibilities of KQ and I win 0%
9 possibilities of a set and I win 64% of the time
I'm basically even money against AKs/AQs so we can almost ignore those
I find it unlikely but he might do this with a pair+straight draw or pair + flush draw and even then I'm only ~64% favorite.

His play is horrible if he has AA or KK considering how deep we are right? And his stats don't show him as being horrible

Everyone who's saying "you win this 70+%" or "i see you winning this 90% of the time". Is that a guess or did you put him on a range and run some twodimes simulations or what?

What makes this an easy push again?

[orange]

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My god this is quite bad.

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i loled.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming he does this with KQ and a set
16 possibilities of KQ and I win 0%
9 possibilities of a set and I win 64% of the time
I'm basically even money against AKs/AQs so we can almost ignore those
I find it unlikely but he might do this with a pair+straight draw or pair + flush draw and even then I'm only ~64% favorite.

His play is horrible if he has AA or KK considering how deep we are right? And his stats don't show him as being horrible

Everyone who's saying "you win this 70+%" or "i see you winning this 90% of the time". Is that a guess or did you put him on a range and run some twodimes simulations or what?

What makes this an easy push again?

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You are right on this one. This isn't an easy push by any means and you have to put hands like QJs, JTs, AJ, KK, and AA into his range to stick it in. That still might be reasonable, but this isn't a gimmee and against a lot of 100/200NL players a fold has got to be best here.

[True]

flop is very bad, anyone advocating a call this deep is :S

on the turn, shove if u want, call is ok.

pf re-raise if you want but i like calling more.

[Eihli]

[ QUOTE ]
flop is very bad, anyone advocating a call this deep is :S

on the turn, shove if u want, call is ok.

pf re-raise if you want but i like calling more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought calling on the flop when you're deep is good because it's easier to put him on a hand when the pot is small (which is more important to do when stacks are deep than when they are shallow)

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
flop is very bad, anyone advocating a call this deep is :S

on the turn, shove if u want, call is ok.

pf re-raise if you want but i like calling more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought calling on the flop when you're deep is good because it's easier to put him on a hand when the pot is small (which is more important to do when stacks are deep than when they are shallow)

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on this flop i would imagine you have a wide range of mediocre hands thus we need to raise our very strong hand.

Next we have pretty much the nuts and villain will be willing to get AI with a variety of holdings that are less than 40% against us. Our hand should not be much further defined by raising and his range for calling the raise will also be fairly wide.

I would imagine that his range is much further defined when he calls our raise than just by betting.

On the turn his holding when he c/r can be a bluff, can be a hand looking to get AI by the river, it's very hard to tell.

IMO it's a bad fold but against some opponents it can be good. The more often you will bet here when checked to with mediocre hands the more he should be bluffing, the more you bet with draws and strongish made hands the more he should be value c/ring.

When stacks are this deep and our range should be fairly wide we should be trying to get as much in as quickly as possible while his range is fairly wide before villain opts to slowdown. Not raising here is a mistake.