Raising War with KQs in the SB

[Bulletproof Monk]

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It's mostly black (= bad) because it's a dump hand on a very large percent of the flops.

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ok here is a 'hint' as you put it....

how many times does 23o make a 'white' hand as compared to KQs?

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i really don't get the big deal ...

i would be concerned with BB OOP 3bet, but we have two complete passive retards in the hand ... one of which is a 39/34
so really - he has got complete [censored] ...
and another guy 56vpip ... also (complete [censored] most of the time)
then you have a guy, who is a little aggro pre flop, raise but did not cap ... so he doesn't have a primo hand

I've just spent some time stoving ... adding each character by importance ...
it seems that it's mostly BB who is effect by the addtional players (our total equity remains in the 21-24 range after each player is counted)

being OOP sucks (and I wouldn't play like this) but it seems like it doesn't really matter a lot

i also think comparing it to some random crap hand is unrealistic ... KQs a solid multi-way hand ... crap is, well - crap

[Aaron W.]

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ok so here is the first part of the disagreement:

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Yes. If you cap preflop, you're leading this flop 100% of the time.

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i completely disagree....

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What would you propose instead? Check-call? Check-raise? Who is going to bet this flop for you when you cap preflop?

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talking about nut-type hands: i am referring to straights and flushes, when our opponents likely use those same cards to make top 2 and set hands.

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Again, what is the obsession with nut-type hands? Look at BB's hand range and tell me why it is so bad that he's likely holding the exact cards you need to make your nut straight? How often do you flop a flush draw?

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everything ive talked about is talking about the other players cards and the dynamic of the game so stop using that empty statement if you dont know what it means....

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So far, the only valid reason you have for capping preflop is the 1.5% equity edge. Your "dynamic of the game" argument is essentially crap.

Me:

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How often do you flop a straight draw/flush draw with KQs? How does the fact that BB basically always holds two broadway here affect these chances?

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You:

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dont know. its good for us, given the increases to implied odds; note that we have +ev overall equity already, so factors like this are not releveant

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So you don't know how often good things happen, but you believe that the implied odds are big enough to neglect the question of how often good things happen... That argument goes nowhere because it fails to address the fundamental issues: Your implied odds are a function of the postflop action you get *AND* how often you can get it.

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its you that appears to be focusing on just hero's hand, referring to it as K-high and wondering how many times we flop draws without thinking of the implications with respects to the other players.

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Ummmm... you mean like flopping the nut straight against a set of aces? Because that happens... basically never.

What I've been trying to get at is the mere fact that BB has 3-bet you preflop means that it's very likely that the following are true:

1) One pair will not often win this pot for you, meaning that you're really playing for a straight or flush.
2) Your ace outs are decreased, meaning you don't get your straight as often, so that you're relying even more on hitting your flush
3) Your chances of flopping a strong second place hand have increased, meaning you're in a RIO situation

KQs OOP against 4 villains, one of which is a solid BB who 3-bet preflop is not a super-happy-pot-pumping situation. 5 villains and I'll give you a little room, 6+ and that's where you start to find that stride.

[Aaron W.]

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I've just spent some time stoving ... adding each character by importance ...
it seems that it's mostly BB who is effect by the addtional players (our total equity remains in the 21-24 range after each player is counted)

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And this is the key to the entire hand. The three extra villains in the hand do not give us the overlay we need to chase the small equity edge. The postflop play will be tough except in the case of Monk's magic flops.

[Bulletproof Monk]

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Who is going to bet this flop for you when you cap preflop?

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why would we always want it bet? we only want to bet flops where we maintain an edge.... thats the beauty of capping scs

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So far, the only valid reason you have for capping preflop is the 1.5% equity edge.

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and you can feel free to argue against this point at any point that you want.....

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How often do you flop a straight draw/flush draw with KQs?

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you can feel free to answer this question too, since you obv know the answer

[Aaron W.]

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So far, the only valid reason you have for capping preflop is the 1.5% equity edge.

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and you can feel free to argue against this point at any point that you want.....

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I was going to let this go, but since you insist: Preflop hot/cold equity values alone does not make a very good reason for giving excess action preflop. The reason is that the effect of postflop play dominates the hand value when your preflop edge is small. This is particularly true when you have a villain with a narrow range that mostly dominates your hand.

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How often do you flop a straight draw/flush draw with KQs?

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you can feel free to answer this question too, since you obv know the answer

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*sigh* This is so easy to find I almost want to make you do it for the practice of using a search engine. It's 7.5:1 against flopping a flush draw (or flush). For hands that can make 4 straights, you're about 5.7:1 to flop an OESD. KQ only makes two straights, so those odds go down significantly (5.7:1 is about 15%, since you make half as many straights, it's something like 7.5%, which is worse than 12:1 -- now considering that at least one of your aces is missing, that drops even further).

[Bulletproof Monk]

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This is so easy to find I almost want to make you do it for the practice of using a search engine.

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lol.... wtf

wait

do you know who i am?

im getting really confused by the attitude, especially given that im taking the time out to try and help your game; quite a leak for you to not understand this stuff imo

[Aaron W.]

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do you know who i am?

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It doesn't matter who you are. Your logic is terrible (or if there is a cogent argument underneath, it's being poorly expressed and not well supported). The change in attitude is a bit of frustration because you haven't addressed any of the concerns raised by your "capping is awesome" position.

The idea of pushing a miniscule preflop hot/cold equity edge OOP against a player who has you dominated a large percent of the time combined with your "but if I flop the nuts and the other guy flops the near nuts, I make monies" argument simply doesn't make any sense because it happens infrequently.

The "bloated pot = increased implied odds" has not been shown to be significant, only claimed to be so. You can only take advantage of a bloated pot if you flop well frequently enough to give you a chance to collect AND it has to have a significant impact on how the other villains play. Furthermore, by capping preflop, you actually tend to freeze up the action postflop instead of encouraging it. You generally lose the "check-raise the flop with a flush draw" equity edge (which is far bigger than your preflop edge) because you can't be sure who will bet out for you if you check, and there's not a clear expectation of seeing it raised behind you (again, because of your preflop cap).

[Point Blank]

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do you know who i am?

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It doesn't matter who you are. Your logic is terrible (or if there is a cogent argument underneath, it's being poorly expressed and not well supported). The change in attitude is a bit of frustration because you haven't addressed any of the concerns raised by your "capping is awesome" position.

The idea of pushing a miniscule preflop hot/cold equity edge OOP against a player who has you dominated a large percent of the time combined with your "but if I flop the nuts and the other guy flops the near nuts, I make monies" argument simply doesn't make any sense because it happens infrequently.

The "bloated pot = increased implied odds" has not been shown to be significant, only claimed to be so. You can only take advantage of a bloated pot if you flop well frequently enough to give you a chance to collect AND it has to have a significant impact on how the other villains play. Furthermore, by capping preflop, you actually tend to freeze up the action postflop instead of encouraging it. You generally lose the "check-raise the flop with a flush draw" equity edge (which is far bigger than your preflop edge) because you can't be sure who will bet out for you if you check, and there's not a clear expectation of seeing it raised behind you (again, because of your preflop cap).

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lol ... this tread reminds me of a Miles vs Smurph episode from last year

but seriously ... all the energy that has gone in here just isn't worth it

"capping is awesome" ... obviously an exaggeration

capping preflop in this spot is 'whatever'
Aaron - I don't know why we 'have to' lead if we cap

there are a number of situation and flops that can be good for us (especially when it comes down Qxx and the turn is a King and BB has AK ... BB wouldn't have any idea what we have in this spot - we would have raised with anything HOT so we should really put this hand just out of hero's range)

Aaron ...
do you like this more with one more donkey in the mix
and/or if we have the Button (and 3bet is still coming from BB and BTN is now CO, and CO the HJ)

I think the biggest think with Eskimo's play here is his overall game ... obviously his total game is one of pushing small edges against donkeys and confusing opponents that are actually 'playing the game'


If i'm BB here (those stats will probably come down close to mine) ... my range could be JJ+(with 3combos of TT), AKo+, AKs+ (with 2combos of AQs)
and I would assume SB is playing like this with a solid multiway hand but not a solid hand and likely cards 'out of my range'
so not:
JJ+,AQs+,AKo
and likely:
KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s

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I've been doing some more stoving ... taking BB is individual hands (I don't think taking a range of BB hands give an accurate
KK+ ... we are completely toast (11-14% ... vs 45-50%))
AQs+ ... not in that bad of shape (20 vs 28)
AKo ... 20 vs 25
QQ ... 22 vs 32
JJ ... 26 vs 30
TT ... 27 vs 27

so against most of his range we are in pretty good shape and are generally way ahead of the field


seeing as how this is mostly subjective here are the ranges I came up with for the other guys;
TT-77,AQs-A7s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo-ATo,KJo+,QJo

TT-22,AQs-A2s,K2s+,Q2s+,J6s+,T6s+,95s+,85s+,74s+,63s+,52s+,4 2s+,32s,AQo-A2o,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T7o+,96o+,86o+,75o+,64o+,54o

A7s-A2s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,43s,A 8o-A2o,K9o,Q9o,J9o+,T8o+,97o+,86o+,75o+,65o,54o

[Aaron W.]

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capping preflop in this spot is 'whatever'
Aaron - I don't know why we 'have to' lead if we cap

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To be clear, the argument was leading on a Q-high flop if you cap preflop as opposed to checking a Q-high flop if you just call the 3-bet.

I don't believe this is a 'whatever' cap. It's not on the level of some OMG LEAK, but it is indicative of thought processes which start to head in that direction, such as "98s is a no-brainer cap." That one, I would argue, starts down the path of leakage.

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there are a number of situation and flops that can be good for us (especially when it comes down Qxx and the turn is a King and BB has AK ... BB wouldn't have any idea what we have in this spot - we would have raised with anything HOT so we should really put this hand just out of hero's range)

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Again with the exceptional cases... If you are holding KQs and villain is holding AK, there are only two kings left in the deck to fall on the turn. This is only a 5% scenario ASSUMING you hit the desired Qxx flop.

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Aaron ...
do you like this more with one more donkey in the mix
and/or if we have the Button (and 3bet is still coming from BB and BTN is now CO, and CO the HJ)

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One more donkey in the mix makes this barely tolerable -- I would rather see at least two more. What is important here is the size of the overlay. In OP's situation, there are 3 players who are providing some overlay on your cap. The increase from 3 players to 5 players is a 67% increase in the size of the overlay. The extra two players in the pot are a significant increase to both the preflop and postflop edge that you may hold.

Your hand value does not change significantly with the number of players in the pot because it is mostly moderated by BB's hand range. This is why it is so vitally important that you play this hand with BB in mind.

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I think the biggest think with Eskimo's play here is his overall game ... obviously his total game is one of pushing small edges against donkeys and confusing opponents that are actually 'playing the game'

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Whether this is a good strategy or a bad one is up to his ability to make adjustments. Given that he wants to cap KQs OOP against a solid BB 3-bettor, I'm inclined to believe he doesn't make the right adjustments.

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I've been doing some more stoving ... taking BB is individual hands (I don't think taking a range of BB hands give an accurate
KK+ ... we are completely toast (11-14% ... vs 45-50%))
AQs+ ... not in that bad of shape (20 vs 28)
AKo ... 20 vs 25
QQ ... 22 vs 32
JJ ... 26 vs 30
TT ... 27 vs 27

so against most of his range we are in pretty good shape and are generally way ahead of the field

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You're looking at it wrong. The hot/cold numbers continue to be misleading. You're basically drawing to 3 outs or less against AA-QQ/AK/AQ, which is the bulk of that hand range (36 hands). You're drawing to 6 overcards against JJ/TT (12 hands). So it's 3:1 against you being in one of those "better" spots. Beyond that, when you flop well, you're in a RIO spot being OOP against BB who will not do anything kind for you unless he has you beat.