Chipper Jones - 2007 NL MVP

[SL__72]

Wright is definitely a worthy candidate on his own merits, without any "who is going to the playoffs" consideration. More worthy then Rollins for sure and at this point I would probably vote for him over Utley and Ramirez too. I think Chipper, Pujols and Wright would be my top 3 at this point, not necessarily in that order.

[jeramy576]

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If your argument is that Chipper has better "numbers" than Wright this year than that is a very weak argument in itself.

Wright has 100 more PA's this year. That is incredibly valuable , not to mention Wright > Chipper defensively.

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Meaning that if they had the same amount of AB's CJ would be miles ahead

[James282]

VORP:

Hanley: 85.6(jesus)
Wright: 70.7
Chipper: 69.9
Pujols: 64.9
Utley: 62.7

Wright is a much better fielder for his position than Hanley, but I'm not sure he's 16 runs better. I don't know where to go to find data re: defense that we can all agree on, but all metrics place Hanley well below average for shortstops, and Wright above.

James

[SL__72]

According to UZR numbers (from July, so very old) Wright was on pace to finish the year 12 runs better then an average third basemen (defensively) and Ramirez was on pace to finish 31 runs below average for a SS (actually runs/150 games). It is certainly conceivable that Wright has been worth 16 runs more then him.

[SL__72]

I don't know how to convert these numbers to a run value, but here are some updated fielding numbers from HBT:

RZR = Revised Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder's zone that he successfully converted into an out. Doesn't include bonuses for DBs or plays made outside of the zone.
OOZ = Out Of Zone, or the total number of outs made by a fielder on balls hit outside of his zone.

Listings are name, RZR (RZR rank at their position in NL) OOZ (OOZ rank at their position in NL)

Ramirez: .774 (last) 44 (t-9th)
Wright: .697 (5th) 77 (1st)
Jones: .642 (7th) 55 (4th)
Pujols: .846 (1st) 49 (1st)
Utley: .876 (1st) 47 (4th)
Holliday: .900 (2nd) 46 (t-2nd)

[JupiterUWG]

chipper has been the best player in the NL all year long...hed be a mortal lock w/o missing games for the thumb but I still think he should be in the top 3 despite the braves; theyd be completely pathetic without him

And If he doesnt win it, holliday should

[Benholio]

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Its not Wright's fault his team is sucking. He isn't having his best month of the year, but his OPS is still >1 this month.

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But the rationale for giving him the award over those with better numbers is that his team is making the playoffs. If they just barely manage to get in, I think that argument is weaker.

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I dunno, I think it can actually be argued as the opposite. If a team is barely managing to get in with Wright, they would probably not make it without him.

[Wynton]

Benholio,

Perhaps, I place too much weight on the end of the season performance. Just barely making the playoffs - after having a healthy lead for substantial parts of the year - suggests to me that the most valuable player on the team didn't do much when it counted most.

Maybe that shouldn't be much of a factor, but I've got a feeling that it might well be one.

[Jack of Arcades]

He's had a 1.1+ OPS over the past two months.

[Punker]

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Do any of you actually put thought and reason into your responses? Can you argue for what you believe? All who have responded with the implied belief that it is correct that the MVP comes from a playoff team. Do you really believe that and can you argue for it?

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The concept of value indicates that the player's contribution has given the team something of value. Finishing 3rd in your division and not making the playoffs is of very debateable value compared to finishing 4th and not making the playoffs.

Basically, if your team doesn't make the playoffs, the fact that they would have not made the playoffs by a wider margin without you is much less important than a team that makes the playoffs that wouldn't have made it without you.