AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in

[Dave D]

I just want to re-iterate that my read on BB is he's probably only doing this with AK/AQ, TT+, maybe maybe 99 but I doubt it.

I still think calling is best. I'm priced in at this point and I think a shove is way excessive as deep as I am in this spot. Only QQ+ calls me, and that kinda sucks (probably the caller of my OR will fold, so I'm barely getting better than 1:1).

He's BB and raising (he could have just called), and he's raising an UTG raiser. My read on him is that he's not a super donk, so he has to know at least one of those things.

If I had 20 BBs this is an instapush, but for me it really comes down to the fact that I'm so deep here.

[Stumpy]

Dave,

If he reraised w/ TT+, AQ+, and folds all but QQ+ to your push, that means:

He calls 12/45 times.
Or, almost 75% of the time, if you push you win 17k in chips and end at 64k chips.
If he calls, you lose 70% of the time, end up with 104k 30% of the time.

Pushing: (0.75)*(64k) + (0.25)*(0.3)*(104k) = 55.8k = +8.8k average.

The math for calling is a lot harder, but to be simple, if you call, he c-bets and folds to your shove on any A/K flop, (which ignores some ugly cases where you lose to a set, two pair or AA/KK)

You flop an A or K 1/3rd of the time. So 67% = -7k (call, fold.) 33% = +32k (24k preflop + 15k c-bet - 7k call)

Calling: (.67)*(-7k) + (.33)*(32k) = +5.87k

As I said, the second case is over-simplified, and your EV is less than the +5.87k. But even being generous, shoving is better by 3k chips on average, and the value of those chips makes up for the few times you bubble.

So you can argue your position, but so far based on your read calling is not the best play.

[Cornell Fiji]

Stumpy,

Thanks for doing the math. I was hoping that someone would do that. I think that the MTT forum is definitely slipping a bit with a lot of people saying that they should call, or push without trying to figure out the math behind their decision.

I know this is a ridiculously standard shove. I have done the math on a hundred similar hands and it has defended my conclusion. I worry about all of the posters who make the conclusion that they don't want to get their money in with only ace high without justifying their play with any advanced reasoning.

[ger664]

[ QUOTE ]
lol? Maybe in a freeroll or $1 MTT ... in a $25MTT with such deep stacks, I instafold QQ if I get shoved for 50BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

The term Fold Equity springs to mind. This is what makes shoving AKo +EV here.

[Dave D]

Stumpy-

I'll take your math for granted right now. However, I think you're wrong that he doesn't call the push with JJ, and probably TT. That makes that calculation a little worse too. Maybe even 99 some of the time, and AQ some of the time. Also, some of the time he's caught in a straight bluff, or has KQ, or decides 88 is good here.

I dunno the math right now, but it seems to make it a lot closer. For me due to the deep stacked nature of the situation the push is not standard.

Cornell- this is something you need to understand. If you were 100 bbs deep here, a push isn't standard here. We exploit our advantage as better players than the field by playing post flop. Pre flop decisions are easy, and more likely to be "right" or "wrong" but arent the most EV in the long run.

I'm not saying a push is *wrong* here per se, I just don't think its optimal. Usually I hate calling off 1/4 of my stack, EXCEPT when it's JJ+. I still think this decision is very close.

Oh yeah, and I hate people who say "calling off with A high" or whatever. It's not A high, it's nut no pair, I'm not being a nit, there's a big difference in the concept.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
Sherman,

I realize you don't really think his range is QQ+, but we're 30% against QQ+, so I'd recommend folding if that was the case. We're only 39% against AK+, QQ+, so that'd be a fold too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, I get 31% equity.

Anyhow, I meant QQ+/AK. There is no way we can rule AK out.

Anyhow, with all the dead $ in the pot, shoving has to be +EV even if he only has QQ+/AK (well in fact it is slightly -EV; ~2K), doesn't include antes though, what are they?.

But one problem here is that everyone is assuming MP folds. He already called off 1/8th of his stack, he may stick it in here as well, and I am quite sure we are in good shape against his range. With his added $ to the pot, we are in great shape.

Beyond this, Stumpy's math looks good. Thanks.

[Stumpy]

Fiji,
I don't think you can call people sloppy when you stated in this thread that people call with AQ, but also fold 55-JJ. That's like the two way river bluff/value bet. Please suggest a re-raising and a calling range that you think is standard.

Dave, this is your post:
[ QUOTE ]
I just want to re-iterate that my read on BB is he's probably only doing this with AK/AQ, TT+, maybe maybe 99 but I doubt it.

I still think calling is best. I'm priced in at this point and I think a shove is way excessive as deep as I am in this spot. Only QQ+ calls me, and that kinda sucks

[/ QUOTE ]

That's where my ranges came from. And why at the end of my post I said, "You can argue your position, but so far based on your read, calling is not the best play."

You have to greatly adjust his range before the numbers change significantly. I hope you see that adding JJ,TT,99 as calls pushes things one way, and your "straight bluffs, AQ calls" pushes it back.

I didn't bother doing further calling math, because the simple (very optimistic) case I used shows it is a worse option. I think calling is quite a bit worse than I've shown.

[Dave D]

OOps, caught me, I forgot I'd said that before. I guess that kinda illustrates the point that we don't really know what he's calling the push with.

Also, in retrospect I think I'm right in the second post, I think he might call the push with TT+ and some pairs sometimes and AQ.

Also, as far as my read, and in general I think the caller is calling my push every time. I think he's also calling if I call.

[Stumpy]

Sherman,

I assumed they both had 50k to start, MP folds his 3k, 500SB, 500 in antes for a 104k pot.

AK,QQ+ is 39% equity.
47k is break-even (fold), and 104k * (0.39) = 40.6k.

If you assume the whole re-raising range calls, you can't come up with a rational range that makes pushing good. It's the folds that make this a good play.

Particularly because we're 5 from the money. The $60 bubble payout is worth quite a few chips, so a 50/50 is no good without a lot of overlay.

2000 players, $25 entry, pays $60 to top 180. (This is approx for the 25+2.50 double stack.)

After the bubble each chip is worth 0.6533 cents. $60 = 9183 chips.

If we had a play here that was worth +9000 chips on average, but we went broke 50% of the time, folding would be a better option. 9k is almost 20% of our stack, so clearly cEV and $EV have diverged quite a bit.

[Stumpy]

Dave,

You're starting to sound like a knuckle-head here. All you've shown is that you don't know what his range is, you're not taking this hand very seriously, and you just want people to say "call."

Your modified re-raiser range has litle to no effect.

You've said the caller is an idiot with some piece of trash hand, but now he's shoving his 21k extra chips in after a re-raise and a shove 5 from the money. Great. I would bet a fortune you're wrong, and you say the exact opposite in your OP, but whatever.

Why wouldn't you want to shove and isolate him then? That's just more near dead money, and if you get unlucky and lose to him, you've still got 25k in chips left, you'll make the money, and everything is great.

(Call.)