calling for str8 on paired flop

[jeanbaptiste36]

Fold the flop.

[EGO]

[ QUOTE ]
ego,

there's a lot of weak/tight and otherwise strange advice in your post, like this:

[ QUOTE ]
Against a K: A little worse than a 3-1 dog.
Against A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]: A little worse than a 2-1 dog.
Against both: 6.3-1 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

where did these numbers come from? you're gonna have to show your work, i'm sure.

but anyway, this was my favorite part:

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You've got the idiot end of an OESD on a paired, two-flush board.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're worried about spiking an A and then losing to the ol' 3-high straight (QKA23)?

[/ QUOTE ]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>

Calculation results from Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1
Texas Hold'em, 39732 combinations tested.

Board: QsKsKh x x

Hand | JsTc | As2s | Kdx |
------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
Win | 5367 | 8748 | 25506 |
Draw | 90 | 21 | 111 |
Lose | 34275 | 30963 | 14115 |
------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
Win% | 13.62% | 22.04% | 64.33% |
------+--------------+--------------+--------------+


JsTc:
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 12474
Two Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 12726
Three of a Kind win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 1134
Straight win: 5325 draw: 90 lose: 6051
Flush win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 1134
Full House win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 756
Straight Flush win: 42 draw: 0 lose: 0


As2s:
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 12348
Two Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 12012
Three of a Kind win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 1092
Straight win: 186 draw: 18 lose: 48
Flush win: 8442 draw: 0 lose: 4830
Full House win: 120 draw: 3 lose: 633


Kdx:
Three of a Kind win: 9582 draw: 0 lose: 13737
Straight win: 0 draw: 108 lose: 81
Flush win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 168
Full House win: 13213 draw: 3 lose: 128
Quads win: 2711 draw: 0 lose: 1
</pre><hr />

All possible turn/river cards and possible off cards for the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hand were enumerated.

Of course I'm not worried about a higher straight beating us - but splitting is another matter. Also, whenever your straight draw is on the upper end of the 5-cards needed to make the straight, you have an extra chance to win by making a pair.

Yes, my advice here is weak/tight - but it's correct in this situation. The OP suggested no reads other than typical loose/passive. Having a weak draw in a hand where two LP's are having a raising war is certainly enough reason to consider folding early, rather than making a hand and losing a ton of bets to a better hand.

There's alot going on in this hand, and my read was correct. One player did have a K, the other had the second nuts, and Hero was drawing nearly dead, and put in 10 big bets with only a runner-runner straight flush draw to bail him out.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course I'm not worried about a higher straight beating us - but splitting is another matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

dude

listen to yourself, "I'm devaluing my straight draw because someone else might have the same two cards even though I have no reason to put someone on that hand"

[Aaron W.]

I call preflop and fold on the flop when it's two bets cold. This just isn't a very good spot for a straight draw. You call the field loose passive and you're not getting great odds here to chase (11:2 on 6ish outs). You need to worry a little about the ace as an out (AK), but your 9 looks pretty safe. Spades are a little bit of a worry, but not as much as seeing a Q/J/T come on the turn/river as that's a very boat-y board.

[EGO]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Of course I'm not worried about a higher straight beating us - but splitting is another matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

dude

listen to yourself, "I'm devaluing my straight draw because someone else might have the same two cards even though I have no reason to put someone on that hand"

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Not by much, though. Not more than a passing thought (I beat x hands, I tie x hands, I lose against x hands), and it's really not a key decision here. I'd argue that the possibility of a split certainly doesn't make my hand better... does it? Like I said, though, it doesn't matter.

My comment was directed at the use of the phrase "idiot end", which I perhaps define differently, and I should have phrased it less glibly. In micro-limit hold'em online, where even the tight players don't fold, you need to weigh your chances with any draw tempered with the ability to make a winning pair. With a J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] board I'm more likely to play with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in this spot because I've got a better chance of making the best hand with a pair. Both straights draw to the nut straight, but one is clearly better. The worse of these I'd call the "idiot-end". (Notice that splitting in either case doesn't really matter much.) It might not be the classic definition of the term, but in micros, I use it as such.

In a higher limit game, I wouldn't worry about it too much, because I'd expect to have much better reads other than "typical loose passive." No fault to the OP, though, because often these are the only real reads you can have at .25/.50.

I like to think about poker, and when I do post in these forums, try to find hands to respond to where my advice will cut against the grain.

I think this hand is instructive. With a draw you'll usually want more, rather than less players - particularly with a hand that can't "buy any outs" - but the reverse is clearly more true here. I read about the "horserace" concept in a book sometime recently (forgot which of the 2+2 titles it was), and this hand seemed to apply. The OP could draw against either a Kx or a flush draw, but not both. This concept seems far more interesting than my possibly unacceptable usage of the term "idiot end".

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
My comment was directed at the use of the phrase "idiot end", which I perhaps define differently, and I should have phrased it less glibly. In micro-limit hold'em online, where even the tight players don't fold, you need to weigh your chances with any draw tempered with the ability to make a winning pair. With a J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] board I'm more likely to play with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in this spot because I've got a better chance of making the best hand with a pair. Both straights draw to the nut straight, but one is clearly better. The worse of these I'd call the "idiot-end". (Notice that splitting in either case doesn't really matter much.) It might not be the classic definition of the term, but in micros, I use it as such.

[/ QUOTE ]
Unlearn this, then. "Idiot end" and its synonyms apply only to the phenomenon of making your straight and still losing, whether it's because the same card makes your opponent a higher one, or he still has a draw/redraw to a higher one.

Since all straights here are to the nuts, it doesn't matter here. But obviously a draw with overcards is stronger than one without, so say that.