uh-oh - Page 4

Kayber2 · #1 11-15-2007, 10:12 AM

If you fold I don't think you necessarily are saying that you can fold monsters for one more bet. They will still have some doubt (small maybe but still there) that you decided to go super aggressive with QJ and your plan failed.

I fold here. I feel like I always see QJ of clubs in this spot.

elindauer · #2 11-15-2007, 04:39 PM

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I fold here. I feel like I always see QJ of clubs in this spot.

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Damn. How many times have you been in this spot? You must play a lot of hands... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

duckman · #3 11-15-2007, 03:53 PM

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Maybe it's a leak of mine, but I apply the "I HAVE SET, CAN'T FOLD!!!" mantra here and call.

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Ian J · #4 11-17-2007, 01:23 AM

nh bob

Lestat · #5 11-18-2007, 04:41 PM

I don't think you're winning this hand enough times. I just don't. I'd say you're going to be shown QcJc, or KcXc over 97% of the time here.

Also... When someone hestitates on the flop like that, only to quickly call the turn, it often means they picked up (in this case), a flush draw.

dcb777 · #6 11-24-2007, 03:04 PM

Calling is your only play here. Seems pretty standard.

golferbrent · #7 11-27-2007, 04:57 AM

In this spot I don't think 3rd guy matters, except to help you narrow down the range of the SB in this case. If SB is observant, he can definitely see the same factors that we see in the MP player... ie he hates his hand--specifically either A-K, but more likely K-Q.

The fact of the matter is that we, hero that is, hasn't faced any pressure over the course of the hand, since the flop (I'm assuming this is a hand played at the Commerce, where capping the flop light is a common play). MP never folding isn't our concern here. We have him beat--the question is is the SB making a squeeze play here against us b/c he knows that MP wants to fold, but is hoping we don't know MP wants to fold! Thus squeezing us out and getting MP to fold as well? Another thought here is that he could be squeezing us out with what he thinks is the 2nd best hand, but one he is sure beats MP?

Coupled with the relative strength of our hand... I see no way you could fold here. Based on our range, the MP's possible range, and the SB's range... I think a call is in order and a high percentage of the time we are going to get shown Q-Jc.

However, I don't think that we will see this hand as often as everyone is thinking we will see it here. I don't see congruently over the course of the entire hand, how a player supposed as good as the SB would of played this hand so passively? If he is tight-aggressive, why isn't he check-raising the flop in a 4 way pot? Or possibly, why not check-raise the turn for value when he turns the godzilla draw?

In conclusion, I think you are going to see air or a strong 2nd best hand here often enough that you can't possibly fold here.