Child's QQ -v- Yang's JJ

[Hotel Detect]

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watching the final table live...with no previous reads...it really/really/really seemed like Jerry Yang had AA and Lee Childs had QQ before they even showed the hands. Yang never hesitated for a moment with his re-raise preflop and his insta-push allin after Childs led out. This is the kind of storytelling during a hand that forces a fold.

(note: after watching the episodes leading up to the final table...i wasn't going to be surprised if Yang had JJ-TT or even ATcc, but AA-KK seemed so likely at the time...i may have mucked preflop)

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w...t.... Are you sure you watched the PPV coverage? Because the way you are remembering it is completely different than what I saw. I watched Jerry bet 10X bb preflop every other hand for the first 16 hands (actually I think it was more like 9/16). Given those circumstances, how the hell can you put Yang on KK or AA....

please tell me this is a level.
ZOMG its an instacall....

[twonine29]

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[ QUOTE ]
watching the final table live...with no previous reads...it really/really/really seemed like Jerry Yang had AA and Lee Childs had QQ before they even showed the hands. Yang never hesitated for a moment with his re-raise preflop and his insta-push allin after Childs led out. This is the kind of storytelling during a hand that forces a fold.

(note: after watching the episodes leading up to the final table...i wasn't going to be surprised if Yang had JJ-TT or even ATcc, but AA-KK seemed so likely at the time...i may have mucked preflop)

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w...t.... Are you sure you watched the PPV coverage? Because the way you are remembering it is completely different than what I saw. I watched Jerry bet 10X bb preflop every other hand for the first 16 hands (actually I think it was more like 9/16). Given those circumstances, how the hell can you put Yang on KK or AA....

please tell me this is a level.
ZOMG its an instacall....

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this was within the 1st 20-25 minutes of the final table of the WSOP Main Event. When Childs raised from UTG, (when he hadn't been involved in a pot yet) his range seemed to be TT+ or AQ/AK. What is someone's range from UTG+1 when re-raising a tight players' UTG raise? Generally, I would assume JJ-AA or AK. That's it. (and I would normally not even throw JJ in there.)

This was not an easy instacall. In the heat of the moment, it would've been very hard to put Yang on a hand Childs could beat.

(It's my assumption that Yang was "tilting" a little with the JJ which is why he made the re-raise so quickly, b/c he didn't get payed off at all for flopping the flush a few hands before...and wanted to play a big pot to get the chips he thought he should already have...but no one at the table would've known that)

I think it's fairly common to overplay a medium-high strength hand after not getting payed off with a lock a few hands before.

[Hollywade]

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Let's not forget Childs also could have taken Yang out when he got bluffed off KK by Yang's QJ.


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The only way that hand results in Yang getting knocked out is if somehow they both see the river and Childs ends up making kings full. Not likely.

The QQ vs. JJ was a totally different situation in which Yang was willing to go broke on the flop. He was not willing to go broke in the other hand with just a gutter.

[Hollywade]

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how do you fold qq there with less then 50 bb's?

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1) Have no heart
2) Play scared
3) Disregard everything you know about your opponent
4) Pay no attention to how much of your stack you have already committed
5) Put Yang on AcKc and wuss out

[Hollywade]

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different line for Lee Childs???

Jerry is so aggressive this would have been a great spot to C/R...how would u of played it 2p2?

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No. I would do everything exactly the same except I would call the shove within 20 seconds rather than making a speech about how huge a laydown I'm going to make and discussing it with a spectator.

[SunyD]

It seemed to me that Childs felt in his gut that he had the best hand, but he was just scared of potentially being knocked out early given the small chance he was wrong.

When you play for 4-5 long days, and make it to the WSOP main event final table, and fly out your friends and your family to come and watch you.... and then you are put in a semi-marginal situation where you could be gone in the first 20 minutes -- its easier to take the cautious route and wait for a better spot. Childs left himself with 4+ million by mucking.

I dont like his muck at all... but I feel like if it was day 1 or 2, or another tournament, he wouldve called immediately (i.e. his pocket Tens)

[SprattFactor]

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[x] anything that involves the chips in the pot

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[sneaks619]

Your statement that he didn't yet know how aggressive Yang was is not correct. ESPN did a horrid job of illustrating this.

I watched the PPV, and this hand was around hand #11 and Yang had raised roughly 5 of the first 10 hands and won without a showdown. He was clearly playing very aggressively and I said at the time that the QQ fold was beyond horrible.

It is even more horrible when you consider that on the previous day, Yang had raised Child's 10's with A7 and bet $2M on a 9 or 8 high flop. Childs moved all in and Yang folded. Childs already had experience with Yang that Yang was capable of putting a lot of chips in the pot without a big hand.

ESPN's coverage really sucked - where was the rabbit cam to see what the turn and river would have been had Childs called?

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completely agree, i watched the PPV also and jerry had a wide range of hands at that point he moved all in with JJ, that is an easy call, and just played horriblly, Plus last weeks telecast showed him and jerry playing at the same table so he had to know how aggressive jerry was.

[suzzer99]

I wonder if Childs is receiving constant [censored] about this hand now, wherever he's playing live.

FWIW I don't think it's the easiest call ever. Yang can't have expected Childs to fold, and Childs knows this, which greatly reduces the possibility of a draw. So Childs figures Yang thinks he's good, which he did. Does Yang even do that with TT with all the strength Childs has shown pre and post flop? Maybe. 99 doesn't seem too likely. It's very possible Childs was behind Yang's range there by 2-1.

Which I think is about what he was getting to call. But man if there's one place you can make a lot of money by just surviving, it's the WSOPME final table. Look at Tuan Lam. Norm and Lon were bagging on his fold to the money strategy. I'll fold into an extra $3M any day. And he was ugly miracle river away from a real good shot at winning.

Anyway I still think it's a bad fold, but not a trivial call by any means.

[SuperUberBob]

I think he was getting nearly 3:1 on his money here.

I did a Poker Stove on Yang's hand range. It's a pretty tight range, but even if you include 77, 44, 22, it's 60/40 in favor of Yang. It's a clear call. Might have even included other hands that Childs has beat like 88, 99, naked AK, AQcc. It's a call.

172,260 games 0.003 secs 57,420,000 games/sec

Board: 7c 4d 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.777% 44.13% 01.65% 76020 2835.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 54.223% 52.58% 01.65% 90570 2835.00 { TT+, 77, AcKc }