God I hate AQ

[SuperUberBob]

I can fold to the re-raise. Actually, I posted a hand somewhat similar to this before and I folded. Villain showed KK.

Since you did see the flop, you really have to go broke here if you're behind. If he has AK, AA or TT, then fire up another tournament.

[hamnegger]

im gonna add the minireraise to the repetoire it confuses the sh out of people who have less than kk aa.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
im gonna add the minireraise to the repetoire it confuses the sh out of people who have less than kk aa.

[/ QUOTE ]

They are confused but they don't fold.

[SuperUberBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im gonna add the minireraise to the repetoire it confuses the sh out of people who have less than kk aa.

[/ QUOTE ]

They are confused but they don't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

[Dave D]

One comment on Stumpy's post.

I'd just like to add that I would consider the pot to be ~30k without my call. There's no way the other villian is folding to the minraise with the odds he's getting (also I think stumpy forgot blindes/antes).

I'll post more later when I have some time, but let me just say that after putting in about half my stack on the flop if I call, there's no way I should be folding like ever. That's at best weak tight.

[Stumpy]

Sherman,
Reducing the AK frequency in his range really doesn't hurt us preflop or postflop.
You seem to agree the other guy always calls. So we're getting 7.5:1 odds right now, which is pretty great.

Also, when you put SB on such an insanely tight range, another player is not a huge issue, unless his range is also very tight. If SB's range consists entirely of terrible hands for you, there aren't many terrible hands left for the other caller to have. Also, if you somehow manage to get ahead of the really tight range, the chances you're not ahead of the other guy are pretty slim.

JJ vs AA: 18.9%
JJ vs AA & KQs: 17.2%


"Reverse Implied Odds" People:
The time to worry about Reverse Implied Odds is when you have 100BB in a 2BB pot, not 25BB in a 15BB pot.


Barry,
You're correct that your equity on the flop is what really matters here.
Math isn't deceiving you here though. Math, like most things, can easily be misapplied.


AA: 6.25% chance flop an A.
QQ-KK: 18% chance flop an A.
AK: 12.23% chance flop an A.

Preflop, everyone agrees the guy behind is just calling almost always.
I'm claiming he doesn't hurt our equity, so I'm going to simplify things by ignoring him.
In reality, I think he helps, because his range includes weaker aces instead of just bigger ones.

30.25k in pot, 4k to call.

If you don't hit an A, you fold the flop.
If you do, you call the flop.
If he has AA/AK, he bets the turn and you fold.
If he has QQ-KK, he checks the turn and folds.

AA (1): 0.9374*(-4k) + 0.0625*(-22k) = -5.1k
AK (8): 0.8777*(-4k) + 0.1223*(-22k) = -6.2k
KK (6): 0.82*(-4k) + 0.18*(+48.25k) = +5k
QQ (3): 0.82*(-4k) + 0.18*(+48.25k) = +5k

Total = -330.28 chips on average.

Drop 1 AK, or add 1 JJ, or drop 50% AK, 50% QQ, it's +EV.

Basically the range above is exactly the worst range (other than AA) he could have for our equity.
Personally, I think QQ is more likely to do this than AK.
I wouldn't weight either of them fully, but I wouldn't remove them or JJ entirely.

If his range was KK+, calling is +4.6k.

Also, realize that you should be able to get a few more chips out of QQ or KK on the river.
People hate folding big pockets as much as they hate folding to min raises.

[Stumpy]

Dave,
I agree the guy behind is always calling.
I'm not sure you should never fold the turn.

Obviously if he blindly shoves with every hand he raised preflop, it's a call.

If you want to debate it with me, you need to state what you think his range is, and what you think he does with different hands on this flop.
The range and what % of the time he gives up with KK- are the most important questions.

I get frustrated with your posts because you never commit to anything specific about your opponent, and I've never seen you change your mind in the face of numbers. I didn't know I'd get -330 chips above. If it had been -4k, I'd post it and say oops, someone give me a more accurate behavior or range or fold preflop.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
You open from UTG+1 with a small raise (in comparison to blinds+antes)

[/ QUOTE ]

3x isn't a small raise, it's standard. In fact, at this stage in the tourney, a lot of people 2.5x.

[Dave D]

Ok so to everyone saying fold PF after the raise. There's no way I can ever do that here getting the odds I'm getting. Are you serious? I'm almost getting the odds to flop trips here, just realize that you need to be careful and flop an A to be good here.

I posted this hand because I've seen what happened with the rest of it now twice in the last week. I'm not sure I want to post results (or even the turn yet) but people need to stop being so scared. Villian's range here is probably JJ, QQ, KK and AA. I don't think he plays the flop that fast with a set of aces (and really it's so unlikely I have to pay it off) so I was actually pretty confident I was ahead. AK is possible here, but I thought about preflop and thought NO-ONE ever minraises AK like this PF.

As someone else said, people have serious problems getting away from big pairs late tourney. They also collapse strategy wise and get confused/nervous/scared when it gets late in a tourney and [censored] up. Law of Loose Wiring (just applying it here).

I didn't like pushing the flop because villian never calls with something I beat. I decided the best thing was to call and see what he does on the turn, with a plan to pretty much call any bet and/or get it in myself. I also thought villian's flop bet signaled weakness, something about it I just expected more. Or maybe a c/r.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]

If you want to debate it with me, you need to state what you think his range is, and what you think he does with different hands on this flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

I left it pretty vague because I wanted to get other people's opinions. I did however state what I thought his range was in the OP. On the flop, I'm ahead of all but two of those hands, and as my other posts said, AK is heavily discounted because no one minraises that PF especialy after that kind of action and being OOP.

So I'm basically worried about one hand. It's so unlikely, that I think I stack off here.

Also, my point was that no matter what villian has, you should never be calling flop w/o a plan to see showdown. You're FAR too invested. It's a spew. What he does isnt important because you need to have a plan to either get it in (or see a showdown) or not. The pot is huge, and means making the FT, or not.

[ QUOTE ]


The range and what % of the time he gives up with KK- are the most important questions.


[/ QUOTE ]

I talk about this in my other post, and didn't say it in the OP beause I wanted to get other people's opinion on this. However, I think he at least c-bets almost every time with hands I beat.
[ QUOTE ]

I get frustrated with your posts because you never commit to anything specific about your opponent, and I've never seen you change your mind in the face of numbers. I didn't know I'd get -330 chips above. If it had been -4k, I'd post it and say oops, someone give me a more accurate behavior or range or fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have actually but whatever. I think you rely on numbers too much too. The bottom line here however is that I'm getting far better than the odds that I need PF to hit my A/trips/broadway whatever, and when I do I know I'm good virtually every time.

The flop action is almost sort of irrelevent in this sense, it's almost all overlay. The messyness comes from not having AK here I think in large part, which is why I posted the hand.