27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?

[Shillx]

I think about 60% is right.

What planet are you people living on? I would be shocked if I could push more then about 13% here.

If you run hot and are able to push at will then yeah fold the A8s. But when all your shoves get called and you have to find a hand, that A8s spot looks pretty good.

[TruFloridaGator]

lol, shillx. I was just playing around with SNGPT, do it yourself. That's just something in the middle because it's tough to gauge their ranges.

[TruFloridaGator]

Oops, had it on 300/600 because it would of gone up.

I got 45% vs
SB & BB: 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+
BTN: TT+,AQs+,AKo

which could certainly be too tight, but wanted to point out the mistake.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, definitely a lot of reasons to call, hence the post in the first place but I wanted to take a closer look to see how much better it is than folding with respect to all future considerations. You can't just look at only the positive reasons for making the original call if you are going to look at the future.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well that's my point - you didn't look at all future considerations. You looked at whether you might be able to push UTG. Not the same thing.

If it's 50/50 to get an OK push my next UTG hand, I'm definitely calling here.

[Little John]

[ QUOTE ]
Oops, had it on 300/600 because it would of gone up.

I got 45% vs
SB & BB: 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+
BTN: TT+,AQs+,AKo

which could certainly be too tight, but wanted to point out the mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think those setting are a bit too tight. For the button you used preset "1" and very few call that tight when the BB hits 600 (unless there is a micro stack at table). It would also be nice for setting "3" if KQo were added because people love this hand and will call more than 44, 55, A7s, or KJs.

[Little John]

OK, using your stacks from before:

Hero (t2142)
BTN (t3030)
SB (t1235)
BB (t7093)

I used the following call ranges:

button 66+,ATs+,AJo+
sb 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+
bb 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs

And I get Push hands: 33+,A7o+,A2s+,KQo,KTs+,QTs+,JTs (18.1%)

This looks pretty decent to me. Two other factors. You are in the bb next hand which would make you want to push a lot wider. The sb is short and will probably push a lot and the bb will have odds to call meaning you should tighten up. These two offset and I think that would be a pretty decent push range.

[simonpoker]

to OP I think its a clear call

[TruFloridaGator]

Those ranges are better, but they were being insanely tight so there's no way exactly of knowing perfect. Regardless, unless you could push very wide here it definitely makes sense to call in the original hand.

[donkeykong2]

i call for sure if he s on atc which he seems to be.
has anyone run those kind of simulations of bubble play if anyone plays according to icm? i would be very interested in the results.

[darom03]

A very interesting discussion.

According to SNG-W calling will be -0.94%, and it suggest call% range of 8.3 (66+,AJ+,ATs+,KQs)

As I see it, we need some pretty good reasoning for a -.94 call here.

You almost have to believe the other small stacks will play perfect bubble play for this to be a call, wouldn't you?

I mean, we give up on a lot of EV with a call. Add to that the EV we can get by letting the other stacks make mistakes.

I will fold this one on that premise alone. But the points are valid, and did I have a slightly better hand (and thus a smaller -EV situation), I would call to gain the pawnage you are talking about.

I just doesn't think the typical level of bubble play in the 27's justify us giving up that much EV.

EDIT: I mistakingly put in A8o... with A8s we get -0.22% and therefore a much better scenario. I could call here maybe... If I thought the opposition were as good as me, I would call for sure.