Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River

[CardSharpCook]

I can't HELP but bet at this. 700 sounds about right. I have him on KQ, AQ, JQ, 89-9A, Q9, a bunch of hands that don't call, and a couple hands that bluff big at me. And 8% chance of a flush, which will rise to a 40% chance if I am check/raised.

Yeah, I bet. and Yeah I call a push.

[grandgnu]

I still don't like betting out here. The pot is 1800 or so, and we can check for FREE and with 100% certainty see if we won.

What is Villian calling a 500+ chip bet on the turn with? A draw? A made hand? A pair? He doesn't have odds to call unless he's got a made hand. And if he does have a made hand, then he should have raised with his straight just in case we're on the nut flush draw.

His play is extremely confusing, we still have failed to accurately figure out his holding, and his bizzare play has failed to define it for us.

So yes, betting 500 or something as a value bet might be a good move. It is quite possible we have this hand won and Villian will pay us off.

But, there's 1800 in the pot, and we can find out without any additional risk if we've won or not. Or, we can go and bet between 500-700 like some of you are suggesting, which is essentially pot-commiting us for our remaining stack.

So to win 500-700 chips, you're actually risking your remaining 1600+ chips and your entire tournament. I just don't feel confident enough (since Villian hasn't defined his hand adequately) to make that "value" bet.

Perhaps that is what separates me from the true pro's. I'm not willing to take those type of risks. But I think it's a -EV bet given the potential for loss, it's just uneccessary. I still advocate the check behind.

[Pat Southern]

Well I think i learned something from this thread. Just because a normal player won't pay off on this river very often, this player may. The more I think about it the more I like betting around 600. Although I'd like to hear some justification for calling a push. Say you bet 600 into the 1800 chip pot, and he pushes, you then need to call 1000 to win 5000. I can't imagine you're good more than 20% of the time here, and calling seems like chip spewing to me.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I think i learned something from this thread. Just because a normal player won't pay off on this river very often, this player may. The more I think about it the more I like betting around 600. Although I'd like to hear some justification for calling a push. Say you bet 600 into the 1800 chip pot, and he pushes, you then need to call 1000 to win 5000. I can't imagine you're good more than 20% of the time here, and calling seems like chip spewing to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mind a value bet, when you believe with significant certainty that you have the best hand.

But this guy min-check raised us on the flop, check-called a HUGE turn bet and checked on the river. None of his actions make any sense (from our perspective) for him having made the straight, flush, set, top pair with good kicker, pair with draw, etc.

The only possible holding that Villian could have in this spot that would make sense with the way he played would be 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

But the chances for another holding are higher. Still, we aren't ahead of all of those holdings and his play did not reflect those hands.

So that means either he's a good player with the monster 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or he's a donk and we still don't know what his holding is.

Risking, let's say 600 chips (in the hope we get paid off another 600) is pretty much -EV here. If we're beat and get check-raised then here's our problem:

HOPE TO WIN: 600 chips

RISKING TO WIN THOSE CHIPS: 1600 + tournament life

We're pretty much risking 2.7 times the amount we hope to win.

[Pat Southern]

If I'm not calling a push then I'm not risking 1600+tourney life. I'd say that there's a very small chance I'm ahead here if he checkraises the river, and I can therefore fold; furthermore I think I'm best the majority of the time when he calls, which would make betting correct. If however I thought that 1. he c/r bluffs enough with a worse hand 2. doesn't call with enough worse hands then i like checking behind on the river. I just think that from what I can gather from his play on this hand he isn't that type of player to make betting incorrect.

[CardSharpCook]

the justification for calling a push is that you need to be right some 25% of the time. The way you played this hand, it is not reasonable to have the flush draw. Villian should know this. A bet of 5-800 looks like one last desperation attempt to take this pot down, and if your opponent has nothing, he may try to push. Why? 'Cause how could he push without the flush? In my earlier post, I said 8% chance of flush, 40% if he pushes. I'll up that to 60%. He shouldn't have a flush here. Most players don't call the 550 on the turn w/o a draw, though combo draws like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] might (incorrectly). That a player would do that and then check the river is even more unlikely. We know that this is a player capable of a check/rz bluff, so the chance that he might do it again is increased.

Now, there are many "made" hands that call this "desperation river bluff". Any Q, some 9s, some PPs. The only hand I am scared of is Q9. This is Value Bet Time.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm not calling a push then I'm not risking 1600+tourney life.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, so the pot has 1800 chips, we bet out 600, leaving ourselves 1K behind. Villian check-raises to put us all-in, making the pot 3,000. We're getting 3:1 on our money and we fold? You could have saved the 600 chips AND had a 100% chance to see the showdown and possibly win the 1800.

So to try and win an additional 600 chips, you're risking the 1800 chips in the pot (since you plan to fold to a check-raise). This is just about as bad as risking the 600 chips with the intention of calling a check-raise for our remaining 1K chips (i.e. risking 1600 to win another 600 plus risking our entire tournament life).

[beenben]

The way he played the turn makes me think he was on a flush draw. I now think he made his flush and that he wants to check-raise again. There is the possibility that he is a donkey and has been calling with TPTK or something else that we beat. A str8 is now unlikely as is a set or another two pair. If we bet, I think we are throwing chips away to his flush. I check behind.

[adanthar]

OK, first time in a week I'm not dead so let me take a stab at this post:

I think I said on the flop that we bet 1/2 the pot or so, call a CR and call the turn/bet if checked to. Great, according to plan so far. We get a pretty bad, but not horrible river and the BB checks. What does that tell us?

Well, there's very little chance he has a flush, because that doesn't usually check this card. He didn't flop a straight (I hope, because this would be the worst possible way to play it) and this isn't a hand that had us beat on the turn unless it was exactly 97/Q9. So, when we have him beat now (which is usually), it's probably with something like A9, and we need to figure out what he will call. I think that figure is in the 600-800 range, depending on what looks more like a last street bluff (I've bet exactly 520 there a few times) and go with whatever I decide is worth it. Also, I take a bunch of time off the clock when I do.

BTW, if you do bet something in this range, I think you can fold to a quick push, because one pair does not play this way and if you want to call a CR you have to put him on a three street bluff with absolutely nothing.

[Ansky]

Easy check. Every draw is there, and it means he wont make a crying call with a top pair type mediocre hand. Better hands call, worse hands fold.