136913691369's 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system

[136913691369]

plays for 10/8/07

njd/ott o1.5 +112
edm/det o1.5 +101

[136913691369]

[ QUOTE ]
plays for 10/8/07

njd/ott o1.5 +112 (officially +113) WIN
edm/det o1.5 +101 WIN

[/ QUOTE ]

actually got +113 on the ottawa game, hate to change it after the game has already won, but it's only 1c [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

2-0 +2.14 units

07-08 totals 9-7 +2.55 units

[136913691369]

no plays for tuesday 10/9/07

Anyone who bet hockey last year and knows a little bit more about handicapping hockey then I do want to comment on why the under 1.5's for the 1st period are getting such crappy lines compared to last year? Has there been some kind of fundamental change that I missed?

Is it because a disproportionate amount of games have gone under the total for the full game so far this season?

[rjp]

I know little about hockey, but the method I use to value period totals based on the full game total shows the listed total odds (over/under) to be well within reason. Doesn't help that some shops (i.e. CRIS) deal a 30 cent line on these.

Only had two bets so far this year, one of which is o1.5 -110 in the 1st period tonight. Really just waiting for the teams to show what their worth, as I'm sure early season lines aren't as efficient as they will be later in the year.

[136913691369]

plays for 10/10/07

redwings o1.5 +110
wild o1.5 +120
blackhawks o1.5 +105
ducks o1.5 +105

and the barrage of over plays continue. Have had just one under play the whole season.

Might be more plays tomorrow.

[Mediocre_Player]

139 ... are you just taking +ve vig value this year is there some capping of individual teams?

[136913691369]

I am trying to just take the +odds after what happened last year when I ended up overanalyzing the plays. When more data becomes available I will however start adjusting the numbers a little... BEWARE when I start doing that lol

[rjp]

I'm not sure I'd call those coin flips, but good luck. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[oVan]

1369,

Do you think that 1st team to score would be closer to a true flip than the o1.5?

[136913691369]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I'd call those coin flips, but good luck. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I have over 2500 games of data going back to the 05-06 season. I don't have this data in front of me because I am not home at the moment, but it came out to about 53% over 1.5's, 47% under 1.5's. That's pretty close to a coin flip in my eyes.

edit: I view them to be coinflips like football/basketball spreads only thing is they are giving me on average +110 instead of me giving them +110.

Also, note my record form last year 221-222. Pretty close to 50% with a somewhat decent sample size.