The Bax Limit Theorem

[N 82 50 24]

Buy-in Played ROI Expectation Winnings Buy-in Rake Profit

$150 214 -18% -$29 $28,368 $32,100 $2,568 -$6,300

http://www.bluffmagazine.com/thepoke...asp?tid=154980

PokerStars -
Tourney ID: 20002201 Buy-in: $150+12 Players: 586
Game Type: NL Hold'em Rebuys: 0 Add-ons: 0
Start Time: 2/20/2006 - 21:10 End Time: 2/21/2006 - 02:24 Prize Pool: $87,900
Place Username Payout
1. shaniac $21,975

[TheNewf]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm a losing mtt player on every site but ftp now

[/ QUOTE ]

Brag: 3.83% ROI on Stars.
Beat: -9% ROI over 108 $100 rebuys despite winning it once.

[BadgerPro]

[ QUOTE ]
Beat: -9% ROI over 108 $100 rebuys despite winning it once.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're pretty much down the rake.

[JSchnett]

brag: up 85K+ in $162s,
beat: down a [censored] in $215s/320s
variance: break even in $530s and 1ks

[Hoop Addict]

[ QUOTE ]
Buy-in Played ROI Expectation Winnings Buy-in Rake Profit

$150 214 -18% -$29 $28,368 $32,100 $2,568 -$6,300

http://www.bluffmagazine.com/thepoke...asp?tid=154980

PokerStars -
Tourney ID: 20002201 Buy-in: $150+12 Players: 586
Game Type: NL Hold'em Rebuys: 0 Add-ons: 0
Start Time: 2/20/2006 - 21:10 End Time: 2/21/2006 - 02:24 Prize Pool: $87,900
Place Username Payout
1. shaniac $21,975

[/ QUOTE ]

Ty Nat. You're a gun.

[TheNewf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Beat: -9% ROI over 108 $100 rebuys despite winning it once.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're pretty much down the rake.

[/ QUOTE ]

At the risk of being a nit, the rake is a much smaller % in those. I've never paid much attention to my actual results, partly because I want to believe I'm better than they would lead me to believe, and partly because I realize they're basically meaningless.

[BadgerPro]

[ QUOTE ]
At the risk of being a nit, the rake is a much smaller % in those.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, forgot the 'rebuy' part kills the rake %... whoops.

[Sherman]

Okay, using a measure beyond ROI, I get the following for JohnnyBax only using his Stars Results:

Buyins less than $110. Also includes $55 Rebuys. Total tournaments = 1798.

Bax is 4.01 Times more likely than random chance to win a tournament on average. Using a 95% CI, his upper limit is 5.92 and his lower limit is 2.68 times more likely than random chance to win the tournament. For those who don't know...this is damn good.

Buyins over $110 (includes $109 rebuys). For a total of 1202 tournaments.

Bax is 2.13 Times more likely than random chance to win a tournament on average. Using a 95% CI, his upper limit is 3.55 and his lower limit is 1.26 times more likely than random chance to win the tournament. Pretty good evidence that he is a winning player even at this buy-in level.

Note that these estimates are representative of size of field.

End debate.

[Dawg24]

shermn...

can you explain these numbers and where they come from....I find it very interesting.

ty

[burningyen]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not some sample size issue, this is over 400 tourneys....

[/ QUOTE ]
lol?