80NL - gettin MINdonked into all 3 streets??

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
shox It sounds like you are sayin the stack sizes shouldnt even be takin into consideration?? good players shouldnt think of spots as "money" but unfortunately your opponents do and are less likely to call here IMO w/ a 1 pair b/c of how expensive it is...and you say 200BB is nothing in this game?? I have to totally disagree, its completely different than the typical 100BB NL. Ive played over 120k (yes not a whole lot) hands at deep stack poker and it plays soo much different than 100BB NL.

[/ QUOTE ]
You should think in terms of ranges and EV, if your hand is ahead of your opponents range and it's +EV to bet, then bet and don't worry about stack sizes.
Yes, the game plays differently but the fish in this game still suck just as they do, and I doubt a 65/20 or w/e his stats are is taking into consideration that he's playing with 200bb, the only thing he's thinking of that it only takes one click to reload his stack if he loses this hand.

[BevillTheDevil]

Im obv ahead of his range...but IMO not ahead of his callin range based on pot/stack sizes so yes they do play a factor and you should be thinkin about this ALWAYS.

for example if we r playin against a villian. and we know he has 4 specific hands on the river. 3 of them r busted draws/weak hands. the 4th is the nuts. welp sure enough we r 75% against his range. according to ur theory we should over shove the flop because "if your hand is ahead of your opponents range and it's +EV to bet"

ur showing a complete lack of understandin here. it doesnt matter wut his river range is. ALL THAT MATTERS IS HIS CALLING RANGE.

my point is that i think his calling range is rather narrow due to the flop and turn action as well as how big of a bet the river is. thus forcing him to fold hands such as QJ and KQ on the river. i have shown nothing but strength and villian can pick up that at least a bit. we really dont beat much that he calls with imo thus betting is -EV

[wslee00]

the 200bb definitely matters - i feel you actually have to play tighter since you now have 200bb behind. It's kind of analogous to limit where if the cap is 4 bets, there's actually a lot more action than at a room where the cap is 5 bets b/c people will just put in that 4th raise since they know it's the last one.

[shoxbb6]

[ QUOTE ]
Im obv ahead of his range...but IMO not ahead of his callin range based on pot/stack sizes so yes they do play a factor and you should be thinkin about this ALWAYS.

for example if we r playin against a villian. and we know he has 4 specific hands on the river. 3 of them r busted draws/weak hands. the 4th is the nuts. welp sure enough we r 75% against his range. according to ur theory we should over shove the flop because "if your hand is ahead of your opponents range and it's +EV to bet"

ur showing a complete lack of understandin here. it doesnt matter wut his river range is. ALL THAT MATTERS IS HIS CALLING RANGE.

my point is that i think his calling range is rather narrow due to the flop and turn action as well as how big of a bet the river is. thus forcing him to fold hands such as QJ and KQ on the river. i have shown nothing but strength and villian can pick up that at least a bit. we really dont beat much that he calls with imo thus betting is -EV

[/ QUOTE ]
And you're showing a complete lack of reading comprehension. In my second post in this thread, I specifically mentioned calling ranges. And I don't think at all for a second that villain will fold hands like KQ/AQ/QJ here if he were to donk then call the previously two streets, especially when spades miss on the river.

[Kasane]

[ QUOTE ]
Donk bets are meaningless, and you should treat them as checks. Even if you look at the results and know he's capable of donking the previous streets with something like 67 then he is just as capable of donking with spades or a bare Q.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree here, and it's my main point.

Donk bets are meaningless in isolation on any street. Yes. Donk bets on all three streets that result in a hefty raise each and every time are not. Villain has a significant pattern to work with. You raised his first donk. You raised his second donk. You will probably raise his 3rd one. Thus it has a higher probability than a usual donk of being intended to induce a raise!

Also, being on the river, it can't be meant to allow villain to draw cheaply. A min-donk can mean a lot of things on the flop or turn, one of the major ones being that it is there to allow the donker to draw cheaply. On the river, this just isn't the case. Therefore it has to be either a hand that wants a cheap showdown, or a raise inducer -- but it no longer is a cheap draw attempt as it is on the flop or turn.

Take these two things together, and a donk on the river is different.

[shoxbb6]

I don't think a 65/20 ever comes close to thinking beyond the first level, let alone on that level of metagame, the "he thinks, i thinks....." stuff.

[DarkMagus]

If villian can be holding any pair, any 2 spades, or any straight draw on the flop, as well as any ace high, we're ahead of 77% of his range on the river



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

607 games 0.005 secs 121,400 games/sec

Board: Qs 5h 8s 2c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.512% 77.43% 00.08% 470 0.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 22.488% 22.41% 00.08% 136 0.50 { 22+, A2s+, KQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, K8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, K5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, Q2s+, J8s+, Js7s, Js6s, J5s, Js4s, Js3s, Js2s, T8s+, Ts7s, Ts6s, T5s, Ts4s, Ts3s, Ts2s, 95s+, 9s4s, 9s3s, 9s2s, 82s+, 74s+, 7s3s, 7s2s, 64s+, 6s3s, 6s2s, 52s+, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s, A2o+, KQo, K8o, K5o, Q2o+, J8o, J5o, T8o, T5o, 98o, 95o, 82o+, 75o+, 65o, 52o+ }

[Kasane]

How many times does this have to be said? It doesn't matter if we're ahead of his range. It is obvious to everyone we're ahead of his range that gets to the river.

It only matters if we're ahead of his CALLING range better than half the time for the bet to be profitable(leaving out factoring in the situations that he could reraise and we might feel committed).

Busted flush draws are not calling. Busted straights are not calling. One pp hands less than Qx are not calling. Even Qx hands are folding a good hunk of the time if the donk bet was meant to get to showdown cheap.

Stupid draws that hit 2pr and fear the set will still call -- we don't beat that. Monsters that intend to induce a raise will not call -- they'll reraise.

There are a couple Qx hands that might, just might call if he's a massive station. Certainly some evidence of that, but I don't think it makes up 50% of his calling/raising range. Draws that missed are absolutely irrelevant unless he'll bluff raise them after the min-raise, but that's just too odd and convoluted to discuss here.

[DarkMagus]

I know but he may call with a lot of his pairs if we make a smallish raise to $50.

Even still I agree the value of the raise is marginal, and a lot of bad villians love to check raise the river when they hit. I'd rather not risk a raise (or call from a low 2 pair hand) until we've seen the villian call large river bets with very bad hands.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
How many times does this have to be said? It doesn't matter if we're ahead of his range. It is obvious to everyone we're ahead of his range that gets to the river.

It only matters if we're ahead of his CALLING range better than half the time for the bet to be profitable(leaving out factoring in the situations that he could reraise and we might feel committed).

Busted flush draws are not calling. Busted straights are not calling. One pp hands less than Qx are not calling. Even Qx hands are folding a good hunk of the time if the donk bet was meant to get to showdown cheap.

Stupid draws that hit 2pr and fear the set will still call -- we don't beat that. Monsters that intend to induce a raise will not call -- they'll reraise.

There are a couple Qx hands that might, just might call if he's a massive station. Certainly some evidence of that, but I don't think it makes up 50% of his calling/raising range. Draws that missed are absolutely irrelevant unless he'll bluff raise them after the min-raise, but that's just too odd and convoluted to discuss here.

[/ QUOTE ]thank god some one is lookin at this the right way. i really see practically 0 value from raising the river here being this deep. that seems pretty spewy to me. he just doesnt call off with enough hands that we beat to make up for the random 2p+ hands that he shows up with on the river