Thoughts on Running bad for UNL guys - Page 4

jessyj07 · #31 07-17-2007, 03:05 PM

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10 buy ins is not even a downswing, its variance.

[/ QUOTE ]In my >500k hands at the micros my biggest downswing is just under 7 stacks at the $25 and the last couple were tilt. It is not variance and more likely that people need to be more objective about their own play.

Shoe Lace · #32 07-17-2007, 03:07 PM

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10BIs downswing at micros is so bad, you must have some serious holes in your game if this is happening.

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Yep. I did this once at NL2 (!). It was after a 12+ hour session. After reviewing the session the next day I couldn't even figure out what I was thinking when I put my stack in the middle on some hands.

2 BIs were variance (big pairs got cracked by bs when the money went in good). The rest was the result of poor play (probably due to getting those big pairs cracked + too long of a session + thinking it's impossible to lose at these limits + not really playing postflop).

These are leaks, not variance. This never happened again, and so far (knock on wood) I haven't seen any noticeable downswings yet. I might drop 2-3 buyins in the middle of a session but I usually manage to fight my way back (with solid play, and not letting it effect me).

jerryf1914 · #33 07-17-2007, 03:56 PM

i must be doing something wrong...how is it possible to have a 25 and 20 buyindown swing in 100k hands but still run at 4bb/100.......

hennnerz · #34 07-17-2007, 04:18 PM

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i must be doing something wrong...how is it possible to have a 25 and 20 buyindown swing in 100k hands but still run at 4bb/100.......

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I had a 10 buyin downsing in 11k hands (mostly spew) but I was still at 13bb/100. So, its easy to do that.

jerryf1914 · #35 07-17-2007, 04:29 PM

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i must be doing something wrong...how is it possible to have a 25 and 20 buyindown swing in 100k hands but still run at 4bb/100.......

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I had a 10 buyin downsing in 11k hands (mostly spew) but I was still at 13bb/100. So, its easy to do that.

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please tell me how because i am obviously not winning in many spots where i should be

hennnerz · #36 07-17-2007, 04:46 PM

Review your sessions, post hands, read threads, reply on hands, improve/change aspects of your play...

jerryf1914 · #37 07-17-2007, 04:51 PM

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Review your sessions, post hands, read threads, reply on hands, improve/change aspects of your play...

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the thing is though since i have more posts than you i must be doing that already, so there is something else i am doing wrong...

hennnerz · #38 07-17-2007, 04:57 PM

Ive only been playing properly a month. Maybe you could be more willing to totally open up your game. Watch videos too btw..

Triggerle · #39 07-17-2007, 05:09 PM

A 10 buy-in downswing is perfectably possible without spewing or playing bad. Having several sets cracked in a row, maybe along with a couple KK<AA ai preflop situations while missing a bunch of flops will get you down 10 buy-ins pretty quickly. All of this is statistically perfectly possible and even likely for some of us to happen given the amount of hands we all play combined.

Maybe this is avoidable by doing variance-reducing things like folding AA pre-flop or by waiting with your sets until the river so no flush is possible before you put your money in, but to be honest, that's just not good poker.

Sure, an exceptional player may pick up some pots with good handreading skills in between and not go down all the way but very few of us are that good and if we were we wouldn't be playing here.

I am still recovering from a 17 buy-in downswing and despite having been singled out as an example of a losing player on this forum because of this I'm still confident that my winrate is indeed positive. In my case it started with one of these cases described above for 10 buy-ins. Then I lost another 7 to a 95/70/oo player who would call pre-flop all-ins with stuff like 87o vs my AA and win several times in a row. Avoidable? Sure, I could have refused to play at this table especially after being down so much already. I maintain, however, that my play against this guy was hugely +ev for probably all of the 7 buy-ins I lost.

I don't want to get into a discussion about my specific play there as I am the only one who has all the information needed to make this discussion and I by no means want to state that I played perfectly during this stretch.

However, to make a blank statement that stuff like this is impossible for a winning player at these stakes is ignoring the mathematical realities of the game.

jessyj07 · #40 07-17-2007, 05:19 PM

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A 10 buy-in downswing is perfectably possible without spewing or playing bad.

[/ QUOTE ]It's possible but very very unlikely and more likely due to playing bad than running bad. A lot of people will say to themselves that "I got unlucky" or "chalk it up to variance" in spots where strong hands were beaten because they couldn't fold when it is likely they are beaten.