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#32
04-21-2007, 09:02 AM
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Re: Predict ARod\'s season HR & RBI Totals
[ QUOTE ]
Do I live in retardo land? To predict rest of season assuming he's just running good. You just adjust his predictions for what has happened to what was predicted to win happen. IE .9*predicitions + current stats... WTF is going on? [/ QUOTE ] This is almost exactly what you would do. A-Rod's projection by ZIPS was 32 homers. This would give him 41/144. If you go by his 90th percentile PECOTA it's 50/145. 
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#33
04-21-2007, 09:08 AM
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Re: Predict ARod\'s season HR & RBI Totals
Once again A-Rod can hit the bombs in garbage time but when it's time to hit a clutch HR in the 9th against the Red Sox he proves that he's the unclutchiest guy in the league.
It depends on how many clutch opportunities he gets. If he comes up with nobody on base every time, I say something like 90/110. Otherwise 40/150.
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#34
04-21-2007, 09:59 AM
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Re: Predict ARod\'s season HR & RBI Totals
"Once again A-Rod can hit the bombs in garbage time but when it's time to hit a clutch HR in the 9th against the Red Sox he proves that he's the unclutchiest guy in the league."
I told a friend today that this monster April he is having is probably doing him more harm than good b/c now if he doesn't do it in October everyone's perception of him has been heightened by his crazy early year hot streak. Before it was bad, now it could be hunt him down and kill him bad! I saw an interview with Barkley yesterday, don't know if anyone saw this--it was right before the Sox/Yankees game--he said some things that you hear on this board a lot like, "Clutch is the most overused word in baseball and it creates unfair perceptions of players." He went on to say that Arod has been unfairly treated, that his entire body of work is and will be one of the best ever but he is hated by so many because of such a small percentage of his career. He said that he doesn't understand how you can have a great 162 games and it not mean much and then a 7 game series determines how good you are. Anyway this is what Barkley said, it was weird too b/c it was coherent.
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#36
04-21-2007, 10:29 AM
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Re: Predict ARod\'s season HR & RBI Totals
I bet a buddy of mine $1,000 that A-Rod would hit 53 or fewer when he had 8. I thought I was getting a great deal at the time. This friend of mine is a huge Yankee fan, has deep pockets, and generally is on the losing side of these types of bets (and really doesn't seem to care much).
Now I don't know. If I could cancel the bet I probably would. He looks like a lock for 50 now. BTW, if he goes on the 15 day DL, the bet is canceled. Gun to my head I probably say 54 HR and 163 RBI.
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#37
04-21-2007, 10:31 AM
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Re: Predict ARod\'s season HR & RBI Totals
[ QUOTE ]
I bet a buddy of mine $1,000 that A-Rod would hit 53 or fewer when he had 8. I thought I was getting a great deal at the time. This friend of mine is a huge Yankee fan, has deep pockets, and generally is on the losing side of these types of bets (and really doesn't seem to care much). Now I don't know. If I could cancel the bet I probably would. He looks like a lock for 50 now. BTW, if he goes on the 15 day DL, the bet is canceled. Gun to my head I probably say 54 HR and 163 RBI. [/ QUOTE ] giving him the DL cancellation clause was a big mistake on your part.
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#38
04-21-2007, 10:35 AM
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Re: Predict ARod\'s season HR & RBI Totals
[ QUOTE ]
I bet a buddy of mine $1,000 that A-Rod would hit 53 or fewer when he had 8. I thought I was getting a great deal at the time. This friend of mine is a huge Yankee fan, has deep pockets, and generally is on the losing side of these types of bets (and really doesn't seem to care much). Now I don't know. If I could cancel the bet I probably would. He looks like a lock for 50 now. BTW, if he goes on the 15 day DL, the bet is canceled. Gun to my head I probably say 54 HR and 163 RBI. [/ QUOTE ] Did you bet your buddy daryn?
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